Russia Is Not Preparing for Peace: Experts Point to Kremlin’s Plans

23.08.2026, 21:56 uatv.ua

July 2026 became the deadliest month for Ukraine’s civilian population since spring 2022. At least 437 civilians were killed and another 2,610 injured as a result of Russian attacks. Among those killed were 17 children, while 166 children were among the wounded, UATV English reports.

According to acting Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, the record number of civilian casualties should not simply become another reason for expressions of concern. Concrete decisions are needed to change Moscow’s calculations, increase pressure on Russia and ensure accountability for crimes committed.

“Behind this growing number of civilian casualties stands one name — Russia. Having failed to achieve any of its goals on the battlefield, Moscow is intensifying missile, drone and bomb attacks across Ukraine, bringing even more death and destruction to our cities,” Sybiha said.

Long-range weapons accounted for 38% of all civilian casualties in Ukraine in July.

“This is a pattern of deliberate terror that must be documented, investigated and brought to justice. Every Russian commander and official responsible for these attacks must know that evidence is being collected and that justice will prevail,” the acting foreign minister emphasized.

At the same time, Russia is showing no willingness to stop hostilities and, according to Ukrainian intelligence, does not expect to reach an agreement or sign a peace deal by the end of 2026. This was stated by Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.

According to Skibitskyi, Putin still intends to achieve his stated objectives, primarily the complete occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

“Their General Staff’s plans are to complete the capture of Donetsk region by the end of this year,” Skibitskyi said.

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the Russian army is expected to continue striking defense industry enterprises, military facilities, energy and logistics infrastructure, as well as gas stations.

“According to military intelligence, the targets will remain the same — the defense industry, military facilities, energy, logistics systems and gas stations. As we can see now, they are targeting not only military but also civilian facilities. In winter, our vulnerable point is electricity and heating, so these areas may also come under attack,” Skibitskyi said.

In autumn and winter, Ukraine’s gas transportation system and gas production facilities in Poltava and Kharkiv regions could once again come under threat. Russian forces have already attacked these facilities in the past.

At the same time, Russia is attempting to address its shortage of personnel. The Kremlin has not yet made a final decision on a forced mass mobilization. Instead, Russian authorities are using the threat of mobilization as a tool to pressure men into voluntarily signing military contracts.

Recruiters promote the message that mobilization is inevitable, so it is supposedly better to join the army now in exchange for large payments than to end up at the front without compensation later.

At the same time, forced recruitment of men from vulnerable groups has intensified in Russian regions. Men are reportedly being detained during raids and coerced into signing contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry.

Such incidents have been reported across Russia. The situation is particularly acute in Penza region, where local residents have begun organizing groups to resist recruiters. Similar cases have been recorded in Omsk, Ulyanovsk and other regions, according to The Moscow Times.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously said that Russia was preparing a new so-called rapid mobilization campaign for autumn 2026. The campaign could reportedly begin after the staging of elections to the Russian State Duma in September.

According to Zelenskyy, Putin continues to rely on war. Russia is increasing the production of ballistic missiles that could be used to strike Ukraine’s energy system during the autumn and winter period. In addition, Russia has received ballistic missiles from North Korea and plans to deploy another contingent of North Korean troops.

“Putin now thinks that additional mobilization and the involvement of North Korean troops will allow him to prolong this war and increase Russian assault activity. But we are preparing for our own active actions,” Zelenskyy emphasized.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has spent more than $450 billion directly on the war. Military spending consumes almost every second ruble of the state budget, while funding for schools, hospitals and infrastructure is being reduced. The war has already cost Russia hundreds of billions of dollars and triggered one of the country’s most severe economic setbacks in decades.

What facilities could Russia make its main targets in autumn and winter, and why are energy, heating and gas infrastructure once again under threat? Why does Ukrainian intelligence see no signs that the Kremlin is ready for a ceasefire or peace talks by the end of the year? Is Russia preparing another wave of mobilization, and how is the Kremlin attempting to replenish its army without officially announcing a mass draft?

These questions were addressed on the air of UATV by:

“We want our partners to understand two basic things. Without forcing Russia, not Ukraine, there will be no negotiation process. And secondly, simply talking about forcing Russia will not be enough. This must involve sanctions of a different level and a different level of military support for Ukraine.”

“Direct, immediate pressure on Russian territory, the electorate, Putin and his inner circle, as well as direct military pressure — perhaps only this can lead to a negotiation process,” Podolyak said.

Ukraine is demonstrating its readiness for a genuine diplomatic process. Ukraine is presenting a realistic scenario for ending the war — the only possible one. Ukraine is also providing arguments explaining why the war can be ended only in this format.

“Our partners need to understand that the escalation is continuing. This escalation will increasingly and more deeply affect international relations and will even hit countries far from the conflict, including the United States and China, because it is destroying international relations.”

“Russia should be spoken to only through increasing the number of strikes on Russian territory. The more Russians feel the war outside their windows, the more losses they suffer and the more personally they experience the consequences of the war, the faster domestic discontent will grow, eventually manifesting itself in the classic Russian uprisings. Otherwise, the system will not work,” Podolyak said.

He stressed that businesses, economies and governments, including those of neutral countries, should be shown that situational or speculative profits from doing business with Russia are insignificant compared with the losses that could be suffered by everyone if the war continues.

According to Podolyak, sanctions, restrictions and Russia’s isolation should therefore remain among the key areas of international policy toward Moscow.

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