ISW: Russian air defenses fail to counter Ukrainian strikes
Analysts note that Russian officials are effectively shifting part of the responsibility for protection against Ukrainian long-range strikes to regional authorities and individual enterprises. At the same time, Z-bloggers [propaganda bloggers – ed.] regularly complain about the Russian air defenses' inability to intercept all targets.
On August 20, two popular Russian military bloggers said the authorities and private businesses have inflated expectations about the possibility of creating reliable air defenses around industrial and strategic facilities. In their assessment, neither the enterprises nor the Russian military has sufficient capabilities to counter Ukrainian drones and missiles effectively.
Another Kremlin-linked Z-blogger acknowledged the day before that Russia cannot count on intercepting all long-range drones. He proposed relying not only on air defenses but also on passive protection measures, including anti-drone nets, shelters, and redundancy in critical infrastructure.
According to him, federal authorities, regions, and enterprises should jointly take responsibility for protecting industrial facilities.
ISW believes Russia will struggle to expand its air defense capabilities on its own quickly.
At the same time, fortifications around an increasing number of industrial and commercial facilities could have another negative consequence for the Kremlin. According to ISW, this will undermine the image of "normal life" that Russian authorities are trying to maintain for the population.
Background
It should be noted that the Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow and the Moscow region on May 17, 2026, became the most effective since the start of the full-scale war: Ukraine's Defense Forces managed to break through a layered air defense system and hit several strategic facilities.
Rubryka also reported that Russia is redeploying air defense systems to Moscow and the area around the Kerch Bridge, weakening protection in other directions. These moves came in response to Ukrainian long-range strikes that have recently hit Russian military enterprises and large ammunition depots.
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- August, 21
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22 of August 2026