Do Ukrainians Plan to Return Home: New Data

27.08.2026, 16:26 visitukraine.today

Almost half of refugees hope to return to Ukraine, but only 3% have concrete plans. Find out what influences their decision

Almost half of Ukrainian refugees in Europe — 49% — plan or hope to return to Ukraine someday, but only 3% of respondents have concrete plans, while 23% no longer expect to return.

According to the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), as of January 2026 there are about 5.6 million Ukrainian refugees abroad. Most of them — 4 million — left Ukraine through the western borders. Another approximately 277,000 departed to European countries via Russia or Belarus, and according to UN data, 1.3 million Ukrainians became refugees directly in Russia or Belarus.

In total, almost 5.8 million refugees from Ukraine are registered worldwide, with more than 5.2 million of them in Europe. These figures are based on the seventh UNHCR report «Lives on Hold», published in July 2026, which is cited by People’s Deputy Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy.

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It is important to understand that these data reflect not only the number of people who left, but also the dynamics of returns. In 2025, 303,000 more Ukrainian citizens left Ukraine through the western and south-western borders than returned. This is 34% less than in 2024, when the difference was 459,000. This trend may indicate a certain slowdown in the outflow of population and a partial return of certain categories of citizens.

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Most Ukrainian refugees abroad are adult women. Their share among refugees is 40%. The share of adult men among refugees has increased slightly over the year — from 27% to 29%. Children under 18 make up 31% of refugees.

A noticeable change over the year is the reduction in the share of refugees over 45 years old. This coincides with the general trend of older Ukrainians being more inclined to return and may indicate a partial return of Ukrainians in this age group from abroad.

Two thirds — 66% — of Ukrainian refugees are working-age population aged 18–65. Young people — those under 35 — make up more than half of all Ukrainian refugees (56%). This means that a significant part of those who left are people who could be active in the Ukrainian labour market, but are now integrating into the economies of other countries.

Before leaving, most refugees lived in Kyiv and Kyiv region (24%), as well as in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine (52%). People left cities more often than villages. Only every tenth Ukrainian refugee left from a village. 64% of refugees lived in large cities and regional centres: 20% in Kyiv, 11% in Kharkiv, 7% in Dnipro, 6% in Odesa.

The largest number of Ukrainian refugees currently live in Germany (23%) and Poland (19.5%). Every fourth Ukrainian refugee lives in these two countries.

Germany is somewhat more often chosen by young people under 35. Here live 28% of refugees under 35 and 20% of refugees aged 35 or older. Poland is more attractive for refugees aged 35–49: 24% of this age group live here. For comparison, only 15% of refugees under 35 and 18% of refugees over 49 live in this country.

This distribution reflects not only geographical proximity and the presence of diasporas, but also different opportunities in the labour market, access to education and social services in different countries. Young people more often choose countries with wider opportunities for study and career, while older age groups may value linguistic and cultural proximity more.

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The share of those expecting to return has decreased from 61% in July–August 2024 to 49% in December 2025 — January 2026. At the same time, the share of those who no longer hope to return has increased from 12% to 23%.

According to CES data, about 43% of refugees intend to return to Ukraine, and 36% do not plan or are rather unlikely to do so. In this wave of research, the share of refugees intending to return has not changed compared to the previous one. Before this, there was a clear trend of a declining share of refugees planning to return.

Among those wishing to return to Ukraine, almost 80% are ready to return only after the final end of the war with the signing of a document that will allow the resumption of civil aviation flights over Ukraine. This means that for most refugees the key condition for return is not just the cessation of active hostilities, but the stabilisation of the situation and the restoration of normal infrastructure.

65% of respondents consider return likely if the war ends and Ukraine regains control over the occupied territories. This underlines that territorial integrity and security remain decisive factors in making the decision to return.

The longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians adapt abroad: they find work and housing, send their children to school and tie their future to other countries. This is a natural process that has been observed in other countries that have faced prolonged conflicts and mass displacement of populations.

Ukrainian refugees are not a homogeneous group. They have different motivations, different life and socio-economic circumstances, and different plans for returning. Cluster analysis conducted by CES allowed researchers to identify four groups of refugees.

Two groups are more inclined to return — «Classic War Refugees» and «With Strong Ties». Two other groups are more inclined to stay abroad — «New Life Trajectory» and «Economically Vulnerable».

The most inclined to return are «classic war refugees». This group more often left because of hostilities in their locality (26%) or nearby (27%), and less often for economic reasons, job loss, fear of mobilisation or disillusionment with Ukraine. «Classic war refugees» have the highest positive balance of intentions to return to Ukraine — 63% of this group say they definitely or rather plan to return. The average figure for all refugees is 43%.

According to CES calculations, after the end of the war 1.6 million refugees will return to Ukraine under the baseline scenario. Abroad (excluding Russia and Belarus), 2.7 million will remain under the baseline scenario.

Under the pessimistic scenario, only 1.3 million Ukrainians will return home, and 3.0 million will remain abroad. The optimistic scenario envisages the return of 2.2 million Ukrainians; only 2.1 million refugees will remain abroad.

These scenarios are based on assumptions about how sincere the respondents’ stated intentions to return are. For example, under the optimistic scenario, those who «definitely plan» to return will do so with a probability of 100%. Under the baseline scenario, the probability drops to 80%, and under the pessimistic scenario — to 60%.

This means that even under the most optimistic scenario, a significant proportion of refugees will remain abroad. For Ukraine, this creates both challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, the country may lose part of its working-age population. On the other hand, those who return may bring new experience, skills and connections.

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The temporary protection status for Ukrainians in the EU has been extended several times since its introduction in 2022. The duration of this status is determined by decisions of the Council of the European Union, which may change depending on the situation in Ukraine and political decisions at European level.

In response to a question about readiness for a possible cancellation of temporary protection status, 21% of Ukrainian refugees reported that they already have other documents allowing them to stay in the country. Another 26% plan to obtain such alternative documents in the near future.

In the event of temporary protection being cancelled, 27% of refugees plan to seek opportunities to obtain a residence permit in another country (not Ukraine). Only 23% plan to return to Ukraine. Another 11% would return to Ukraine temporarily, but would again look for ways to leave abroad. 11% would remain in their country of residence without the appropriate permit.

This means that any changes in temporary protection status could become a kind of «filter» that will force refugees to finally decide on their plans. For those who have already integrated into their host country, switching to another status may be relatively straightforward. For those without stable work or housing, the situation could become more difficult.

According to Hetmantsev, the state cannot force people to return, but it can create conditions that will make return attractive.

Among the key measures he names are:

The most important factor remains the opportunity to earn a living: 44% of refugees surveyed named employment as one of the main conditions that could influence the decision to return.

«The real success of the state will not be the number of people who have crossed the border towards Ukraine, but how many of the families that return will have safe housing, a stable income and access to services here within a year or two,» Hetmantsev writes.

It was previously reported that Ukraine is launching a platform for the return of specialists who have left the country. Such initiatives could become part of a broader strategy to engage Ukrainians in the country’s recovery.

Regression analysis of factors associated with the desire to return shows which characteristics of refugees correlate with higher or lower return intentions. The results of this analysis cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, but they provide a better understanding of which groups are more or less likely to return.

As in previous waves of the survey, researchers use an ordered logit model. The dependent variable in the regression is the stated