Ukraine Needs to Hit Another 10% of Russia’s Refining Capacity to Trigger Economic Collapse
Ukraine needs to disable another 10% of Russia’s oil-refining capacity to potentially trigger a major economic crisis in the country, economist and professor Oleksandr Savchenko said on the FREEДОМ television channel, UATV English reports.
According to Savchenko, Russia’s oil-refining sector is one of the most important parts of its economy. The country has more than 100 oil-refining enterprises, including roughly 20–25 major facilities that are often key employers and taxpayers in their regions.
He argued that Ukraine’s long-range strikes should ultimately reduce Russia’s refining capacity to 45–50% of normal levels.
“This is enough to disrupt many sectors of the economy, primarily transport, agriculture and construction. There simply will not be enough gasoline or diesel, and the aviation industry will lack jet fuel,” Savchenko said.
The economist estimated that Russia could compensate for only around 5% of the fuel deficit through imports, primarily from India.
He divided the remaining reduction in refining capacity into several stages. The first 10% would primarily affect less profitable businesses and vulnerable groups, while the next 10% would begin significantly affecting businesses and economically active Russians.
A further 10% reduction, he said, would increasingly disrupt agriculture, transportation and construction, while eliminating the final 10–15% could reduce overall fuel consumption by around 45% and trigger an economic collapse across entire industries and regions.
Savchenko said Ukraine’s strategy should involve both repeated strikes on previously damaged refineries to prevent their restoration and attacks on facilities that have not yet been targeted.
“In my rough calculations, another 10% of refining capacity remains to be destroyed or taken offline. Once that happens, we could really see a collapse,” he said.
The economist believes Ukraine should ideally achieve this goal by November, arguing that a severe deterioration in Russia’s economic situation could increase pressure on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire.
Savchenko linked this timeline to the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, saying he expects political pressure on the Trump administration to influence its approach to Russia.
Read Also: Ukraine’s Intelligence Service Identifies 26 Vessels Used by Russia to Transport Oil, LNG and Stolen Ukrainian Grain
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16 of August 2026
