ISW: Ukraine breaks Russia’s numerical advantage strategy with drones and medium-range strikes
Ukrainian forces have gained a tactical advantage in drone use along the entire front line. Combined with medium-range strikes, this allows them to destroy Russian occupiers, their equipment, and logistics more effectively than Russia can compensate for the losses.
Even Russian military bloggers admit that effective Ukrainian UAV reconnaissance at the front has effectively neutralized the infiltration tactics on which Russia has relied in recent months.
In spring 2026, Ukraine significantly intensified medium-range strikes and, according to ISW, achieved noticeable results. Ukrainian forces disrupted traffic on key routes between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea, including the M-14 highway. In addition, routes between occupied southern Ukraine and Donetsk remain under constant fire control.
Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has officially called this a "logistics blockade." At the same time, Kyiv is:
Analysts believe that even if Russia announces a new mobilization, it may face problems moving reserves to the front. Due to ongoing strikes, recruits may not be able to reach forward positions safely.
At the same time, financial incentives for recruitment are already becoming less effective. Putin signed a decree writing off debts of up to 10 million rubles for those who sign a contract with the Defense Ministry for at least one year after May 1. However, analysts note that the number of people willing to fight continues to decline.
ISW also reports that Moscow has begun actively seeking new sources of personnel. In particular, it is recruiting women and students into drone and air defense units to protect rear areas.
Analysts stress that forced conscription carries serious political risks for the Kremlin. As recently as mid-2025, Russian society largely tolerated the war because the Russian army was showing some advances at the front.
Now, according to ISW, the situation has changed:
Under these conditions, a new wave of mobilization could trigger large-scale public discontent and become a threat to the regime itself.
Background
As reported earlier, according to the UK's Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), "almost half a million Russian soldiers" have been killed since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Moreover, during March, the Russian army lost more than 35,000 soldiers killed in Ukraine, the highest figure for the entire period of the full-scale war.
A significant share of the losses came from drone strikes. Drone attacks killed or seriously wounded 33,988 Russian soldiers.
According to the General Staff, Russian invaders lost 1,160 personnel over the past day, May 27. The report says the enemy's total personnel losses since the start of the war have reached about 1,360,110.
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28 of May 2026
