“Russia Won’t Collapse Any Time Soon, But It Could Break” — Interview With Cormac Smith

17.08.2026, 13:52 uatv.ua

41% OF RUSSIA’S ENTIRE BUDGET GOES TO WAR, AND THE KREMLIN HAS NO WAY BACK! A harsh and decisive analysis of the strategic situation from an international expert!

Cormac Smith, a strategic communications expert and former advisor to Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, gives a sober and at times shocking assessment on UATV English of what Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign has actually achieved — and what its real limits are!

— Over the past two weeks, Wildberries — Russia’s largest online marketplace — has lost at least eight major logistics hubs. The Moscow Times estimates recovery could cost more than $16 billion — roughly a quarter of Russia’s annual budget deficit. In parallel, Bloomberg has recorded more than 30 strikes on oil infrastructure in July alone, and the Volgograd and Saratov refineries have already halted processing. Cormac, how do you read these strikes? Is this tactical pressure on rear logistics, or are we already seeing the beginning of a systematic degradation of the Russian war machine?

— I think the last point you made — I think this is strategic. I’ve said on this channel before that I believe one of the keys to Ukraine winning this war is holding the feet of the Russian people to the fire.

For the first four years, I think it’s safe to say the majority of the Russian people were insulated from this war.

Ukraine wasn’t allowed to use Western long-range weapons — such as Storm Shadow, which Britain gave you — to strike military and logistics targets behind Russia’s border. Now, of course, you’ve developed your own long-range drones, your own cruise missiles, and you have others in development with ranges of up to 3,000 kilometers, and your allies in the West have no say over how you use them.

I think what we’ve seen over the first six months of this year is the war being brought home to the ordinary Russian people — in particular, to the Russian people in St. Petersburg and Moscow, where the wealthy middle classes and many of the oligarchs live, on whom Putin depends for his support. So I think it’s important, but unfortunately, I think there’s a long way to go.

— Yeah. And really, inside Russia they always say St. Petersburg and Moscow aren’t the “real Russia.” But Russia’s been living under sanctions for over three years now, and it’s adapting — it’s still paying for the war. Isn’t there a risk of overestimating the effect of these strikes, if, in a month, the warehouses are simply rebuilt in another region?

— Look, I’ve been doing some research before coming on here, and I think we have to be realistic. Russia’s economy is being degraded, but the truth is, it’s not going to collapse any day soon. Most economic experts around the world would say that, at current levels, as long as they continue selling their oil to others, they can probably go on for three to five years.

However, there is a danger, because — from the beginning of this year — this is costing more and more for the average Russian. We see the queues for petrol, we see Russia having to import petrol for the first time, and we believe well over 30% of Russia’s oil-refining capacity has now been taken out of commission.

Wildberries is particularly important, because these warehouses are a legitimate target under the international rules of war — they’re used as distribution hubs to supply the Russian army, who are murdering, torturing, raping, and slaughtering people in Ukraine. So they’re legitimate targets. But this is also going to affect the Russian people. We know that a third of Russian companies were unprofitable last year. We know inflation is running very high. And we know the price of ordinary foodstuffs is starting to go beyond the reach of a lot of ordinary Russians, many of whom are very poor.

But of course, Russia isn’t a democracy like the UK, the Netherlands, or Germany. So with the iron grip Putin has on the Russian people, I think he can keep this pain going. But there’s one other thing I’d say: the proportion of the Russian government’s budget now spent on the war is 41%. That means, continually, there’s going to be less money spent on public services and more on the war effort. 41% compares to a typical European country like the United Kingdom, where we spend about 6.77% of the government’s budget on defense — in Russia, it’s about six times that.

What this means is it’s another reason it’s very hard for Putin to back out. This war has become existential — if it were to end tomorrow, and 40% of the economy is based on the war, he’d be facing huge problems. And of course, he’d have a million and a half, two million mobilized thugs, murderers, and rapists roaming around the Russian Federation without employment. So it’s a situation that’s getting worse for Russia.

One thing could make a difference. In the United States, there’s a bill going through the Senate, recently renamed after the senator who died recently, Lindsey Graham. This bill is expected to pass the Senate in September — the last vote had bipartisan support, it passed 86 to 12, massive bipartisan support. Here’s the thing: this bill would give Donald Trump and the White House the ability to levy tariffs of 500% on any country — India, say — that continues to buy Russian oil. That could crush the Russian economy in a matter of months.

Will Donald Trump do that? My assessment would be probably not — that’s another subject. But I don’t think Ukraine, or the rest of us in the West, can rely anymore on Donald Trump, or on America, as a reliable security partner. I’ve been saying from the start of this war that the key was to arm Ukraine to the teeth and sanction Russia back to the Stone Age. I’m afraid, after four and a half years, our sanctions are still being increased only incrementally, and Russia is still able to sell billions and billions of dollars’ worth of oil every month — and that’s what funds the war machine. Without that revenue, Russia would have no funding. So an awful lot depends on the West, and in particular on what America might do.

But yes, we’re arming you more than we ever were before. Are you armed fully to the teeth? No — I think we could do more. In particular, we need to do more on anti-missile defense. We saw the horrible attack on Kyiv earlier this week. And I certainly believe we can do an awful lot more in terms of sanctions.

Ukraine — I mean, not President Zelenskyy, not your government — your people, the Ukrainian people. It’s people who win wars, and I don’t think anybody on Earth could have asked more from the Ukrainian people than what they’ve done over the last four and a half years. We’re not helping you enough, in my assessment.

— Thank you. And talking about totally paralyzing Russia — you’ve talked about sanctions, about giving weapons to Ukraine, and we have so-called Ukrainian sanctions, deep strikes. What now, specifically, could stop Russia’s fuel transport, logistics, and banking transactions, for us to be talking about a genuine economic breaking point, rather than isolated — if more painful — pressure right now?

— Look, I think the most important area to hit Russia is the shadow fleet, which Ukraine is repeatedly doing, and other allies are starting to do too. This is the illegal shadow fleet, which enables Russia to keep exporting and selling its oil. I mentioned the Lindsey Graham bill, which will go through the Senate in September — that would really properly go after the third countries continuing to buy Russian oil. I believe that would be key to crushing Russia.

But look, we’ve also got to get you air defense missiles, in particular. We’ve got to find a way to give you these, and I know you’re developing some of your own. The promises from Donald Trump — to be honest — to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors under license, I don’t believe those promises are worth the breath they were spoken with, because he’s already started to walk them back, saying he may not do it. He’s since said more recently that the agreement won’t be signed until early next year, 2027. And we know these things take a long time to get the manufacturing up — so it’ll be a long time before Ukraine is rolling its own Patriot interceptors off the production line to defend its people.

So we absolutely must find a way, very quickly, to bolster your air defenses. I spoke to a good friend in Kyiv the morning after the attack that killed, I think, over 17 people and injured over 50 — no drones were used, they were all ballistic missiles, and not a single one was Ukraine able to shoot down, because you’re currently so starved of the vital Patriot interceptors in particular. And that’s because America has been slow-walking them. America, of course, doesn’t give you anything anymore — America sells to Europe, and we in Europe give to you. But we know America has been slow-walking some vital supplies, and now, with their misbegotten war against Iran, they’ve run their Patriot interceptor stocks down very low, and they’ll keep whatever they have for their own war in Iran rather than give them to Ukraine. This, of course, suits Vladimir Putin very nicely.

So yes, we need to find a way to really go after the third countries buying Russian oil, which is keeping their war going — because otherwise, all the economists I’m reading are saying that at the current level, as long as Russia can keep selling the amount of oil it’s selling, they can keep this war going for another three to five years. So yes, we must do that, and we must properly — as I said — Russia needs to be sanctioned back to the Stone Age. Why, the hell, four and a half years into this genocidal war — we need to hear more people use the word “genocide,” because this is a genocidal war against your country — why, four and a half years in, are we still increasing sanctions only incrementally? And why, at this stage, have we not managed to ramp up production on our own side, so we can give you every single weapon you need? Not good enough. It makes this particula