Kremlin sets conditions for possible mobilization and prepares for potential unrest – ISW
On July 22, Russia's State Duma passed a bill allowing citizens with unexpunged criminal records, including for drug smuggling and participation in organized criminal groups, to sign contracts with Russia's Ministry of Defense during formal periods of mobilization.
On the same day, Russian Deputy Defense Minister and head of the Defense Ministry's Main Military-Political Directorate, Army General Viktor Goremykin, said the new law would expand the number of Russians eligible for military service and simplify personnel recruitment for the war against Ukraine in 2026.
In addition, on July 21, Rosgvardia, Russia's militarized internal security service, published proposed amendments to expand civil defense regulations. Officials explain them as necessary to protect Russian society from unspecified "dangers" during mobilization, martial law, and wartime conditions.
ISW analysts also recalled that in November 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing reservists to be sent to combat zones without declaring mobilization. At the time, the Institute for the Study of War suggested that the Kremlin could use this mechanism to conduct phased partial call-ups of reservists.
According to ISW, these decisions collectively indicate that the Kremlin is setting the stage for a possible announcement of formal mobilization and the potential introduction of martial law in Russia. Analysts believe the authorities are also preparing for possible civil unrest, as mobilization remains extremely unpopular among Russian society.
At the same time, ISW notes that the decision to announce mobilization remains highly personal for Putin. Analysts believe it will ultimately depend on his assessment of the situation at the front and the Kremlin's internal stability. It remains unclear whether the Russian president will make such a decision in the near future and what form mobilization could take if announced.
Background
Earlier reports said Russia was preparing a covert mobilization of more than 500,000 people in the fall, with some of them potentially being sent directly to the front in Ukraine.
For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said during a press conference that Russia could launch a new wave of mobilization after the "elections" to the State Duma. According to him, this would allow the Kremlin to avoid significant spending on recruiting contract soldiers.
At the same time, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service said the pace of contract soldier recruitment in Russia for the war against Ukraine has slowed. As of early July, Russian recruiters had not fulfilled even half of the annual plan, while the Kremlin has increasingly recruited students, residents of occupied territories, and foreign migrants to replenish its losses.
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24 of July 2026
