Why Lithuania's ruling coalition broke with the far-right and how the new government will change course
Lithuania is preparing for a coalition reshuffle and the appointment of a new government.
This became possible after the long-awaited decision by the ruling Social Democratic Party to terminate its coalition agreement with the far-right party Nemunas Dawn.
Read more about how Lithuania’s policies, especially its foreign policy, may change after the coalition reshuffle in the article by European Pravda co-founder Yurii Panchenko: Lithuania cleans house: how Ukrainophobes were expelled from government and what Ukraine should expect next.
The first public call for a coalition reshuffle came from Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda in early April. Until then, he had refrained from making such demands, despite sharply criticising repeated controversial statements and actions by Nemunas Dawn.
Even then, however, the Social Democrats were in no hurry to get rid of their toxic partner.
Lithuanian political scientist Vytautas Bruveris says that the decision in principle to break with the far-right may have been made a month earlier, but the parties preferred not to announce it until a new coalition agreement had been secured.
A second reason for delaying the split was the need to pass controversial reforms concerning the governance of Lithuania’s public broadcaster. The Social Democrats required the support of the far-right in parliament to get the changes approved.
Finally, a third reason was that the coalition reshuffle would inevitably lead to changes in the government itself.
Most importantly, it would mean replacing the prime minister. Ending cooperation with the far-right is expected to strengthen the public legitimacy of the incoming prime minister.
Meanwhile, on 10 June, the one-year court-imposed ban on holding public office imposed on Social Democratic Party leader Mindaugas Sinkevičius expired.
Sinkevičius had been punished for misconduct committed while serving as mayor of the city of Jonava. He was found guilty of abusing his office for personal gain.
The relatively lenient punishment reflected the limited financial damage involved: the politician had used municipal funds to pay for his wife’s mobile phone expenses and the purchase of two TVs.
In any case, last year’s appointment of Prime Minister Ruginienė was widely understood as a temporary solution until Sinkevičius’s disqualification period ended.
The Social Democratic leader has not yet publicly declared his intention to become prime minister. Nevertheless, most Lithuanian political commentators have little doubt that such an announcement will come immediately after the expiration of the court ban.
What will the new Lithuanian government’s course be?
On the one hand, breaking with the far-right should make the coalition more coherent and consistent.
As Speaker of the Seimas Juozas Olekas has acknowledged, cooperation with Nemunas Dawn forced the Social Democrats to make ideological concessions. The new coalition is expected to be much more ideologically unified.
But does the absence of Ukrainophobes from the coalition necessarily mean a more pro-Ukrainian government? Unfortunately, there are significant reasons for doubt.
One of the key challenges facing Lithuania’s new government will be deciding whether to allow the transit of Belarusian potash fertilisers to the port of Klaipėda.
As part of his policy of rapprochement with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, US President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash exports in exchange for the release of some political prisoners.
This concession was highly important for the Belarusian regime. However, Lukashenko has so far been unable to benefit from it because transit routes to seaports remain blocked.
To help Lukashenko, the United States reportedly even pressured Ukraine.
Yet Lithuania appears to be an even more promising target for such pressure. The Social Democrats have long had a reputation as a political force more inclined towards compromise with authoritarian regimes than confrontation.
At the same time, any concession to Lukashenko is opposed not only by Lithuania’s opposition parties but also by President Gitanas Nausėda.
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23 of June 2026
