NATO’s Approach to Russia Has Changed Fundamentally, Political Analyst Says

03.08.2026, 04:48 uatv.ua

NATO has undergone a fundamental shift in its approach toward Russia, abandoning years of attempts at partnership in favor of deterrence and treating Moscow as a direct security threat, Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said in an interview with FREEДОМ, UATV English reports.

According to Fesenko, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the collapse of Europe’s post-Cold War security architecture, and changing attitudes among Western governments have forced the Alliance to rethink its strategy.

“No one in Europe who is in their right mind wants a military confrontation with Russia. It’s not because they are cowards, opportunists, or fail to understand the Russian threat. They understand perfectly well that Russia is a nuclear power. Deliberately escalating tensions with Moscow—especially for countries bordering Russia—is an enormous risk,” Fesenko said.

The analyst recalled that before Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine itself hesitated over imposing martial law because of fears that it could become a pretext for Russian aggression.

“This is a question of tactics and deterrence. And deterrence has indeed been a problem. NATO represents a collective position, not just the views of individual countries. Poland and Romania are NATO members. Ukraine still wants to join the Alliance, although attitudes toward NATO are evolving. For a long time, NATO’s leadership opposed taking more active measures against Russia because it feared a direct military confrontation. But that position is now changing,” he said.

As evidence of that shift, Fesenko pointed to decisions adopted at NATO’s latest summit regarding responses to violations of Allied airspace.

According to him, NATO members have moved beyond diplomatic protests and are now prepared to use force against Russian aircraft or drones that penetrate their airspace.

“Fortunately, we are seeing progress. But it happened only recently—not in 2022 or 2023. Poland began acting this way in 2025, and Romania only now. Unfortunately, Russia has become increasingly emboldened during that period. Moscow understands only strength. One possible response is to issue firm ultimatums demanding that Russia stop attacks near NATO borders. If it refuses, NATO countries should make clear that they are prepared to shoot down missiles and drones heading toward their territory—even while they are still over Ukraine if they pose a direct threat,” Fesenko said.

The political analyst argued that the most effective long-term response would be deeper coordination between Ukraine and its Western partners, particularly in the field of air defense.

“Ukraine must become part of the common European and NATO air defense architecture. We are not a NATO member, but if we want to prevent incidents like those involving Poland or Romania, our air defense systems must operate as one mechanism. There should be shared interceptor resources and close operational coordination. Fighter aircraft intercepting Russian cruise missiles must be able to operate without the risk of friendly fire. One of our fighters recently attempted to intercept a missile that entered Polish airspace. Had it continued the pursuit, it could have come under fire from a Polish aircraft. Simply summoning ambassadors is yesterday’s response. We are now seeing a much more serious approach—responding to such incidents with concrete defensive measures,” Fesenko concluded.

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