After Hormuz, the Malacca Strait Could Become the Next Hotspot — Why It Matters?

18.05.2026, 17:36 uatv.ua

The Strait of Malacca between the Malay Peninsula (West Malaysia) and the Indonesian island of Sumatra is a vital transportation corridor. One-quarter of global maritime trade, 45% of oil shipments, and almost everything moving between Asia and the West passes through the strait. At the same time, leading intelligence services around the world predict the beginning of a crisis in the Malacca Strait region in the spring of 2027, linking it to China’s activity toward Taiwan. This was written in a column for the Ukrinform news agency by international security expert, humanitarian demining company owner, and reserve major general Mykola Zentsev, UATV English reports.

Zentsev suggests that the United States could block the Malacca Strait, on which the Chinese economy depends. Around 75-80% of China’s oil imports pass through this artery. Any alternative route around the strait adds 1,000-1,500 nautical miles and several additional travel days.

“Washington uses defense partnerships (for example, with Singapore and other ASEAN countries) and military presence (the 7th and 5th Fleets) to contain China’s influence and maintain the capability, in the event of conflict, to block this ‘node,’” he writes.

Besides the main rivals — the United States and China — there is another strategic player in the region: India. It uses the Andaman and Nicobar Islands near the entrance to the strait and is actively developing military infrastructure there to monitor traffic and counter China’s “String of Pearls” strategy.

Thus, three nuclear powers — the United States, China, and India — are positioning themselves around a strait less than 70 kilometers wide.

Permanent regional players are also participating in the struggle for influence over this transportation artery:

Indonesia occupies a key position at the western entrance to the strait. It has tried to balance between the United States and China but in recent years has leaned toward cooperation with Washington;

Singapore is the main logistics and financial hub of the strait. The island state is interested in maintaining stability along the route because its economy depends entirely on maritime traffic. Singapore is a strategic partner of the United States and India in security matters;

Malaysia, like Indonesia, officially adheres to a policy of neutrality and non-alignment. US and Chinese spheres of influence are clearly divided there. However, decisions by US President Donald Trump, particularly the imposition of tariffs on Malaysian goods, are pushing Malaysia closer to Beijing;

Philippines does not have direct access to the Malacca Strait but controls the “neighboring doors” — strategic passages alternative to the strait. If the Malacca Strait is blocked, ships will also pass through Philippine internal waters. The Philippines is a reliable US partner in the region;

Japan is a traditional military partner of the Philippines and, unlike the United States, maintains equal relations with Malaysia and Indonesia. Today, Japan’s restrained policy in the region could become an unexpected surprise for China.

This configuration also includes the segmented appearance of more distant countries — Turkey, Italy, and Ukraine.

“Jakarta purchased 60 deck-based Bayraktar TB3 UAVs and 9 heavy strike Akıncı drones from Turkey, as well as Bayraktar Kızılelma jet-powered drones equipped with Ukrainian engines. They will be based aboard the former flagship of the Italian Navy, the aircraft carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi, practically gifted by the Italians to Indonesia. After modernization, the ship will carry this interesting unmanned air wing,” Zentsev noted.

For now, trade through the Malacca Strait continues without disruption. But any escalation — increased activity around Taiwan, a final blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or a shift in alliances in the region — could instantly turn Malacca into an instrument of pressure.

“And the first victim will not be the West, but China — the country that depends most on the strait and controls it the least,” the expert emphasized.

Leading intelligence services around the world predict the beginning of a crisis in the region in the spring of 2027, linking it to China’s activity toward Taiwan.

“Right now, most analysts say that the US president’s visit to China looks like the visit of a weak player without trump cards or leverage, much like Trump once told Zelenskyy. But perhaps US influence over the future situation in the Malacca Strait is exactly the trump card Trump is bringing with him to Beijing,” Mykola Zentsev concluded.

As previously reported, from May 13 to 15, US President Donald Trump will visit Beijing at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The main topics of the meeting will include the situation surrounding Iran, trade relations, and supplies of rare earth metals.

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