How a Russian drone attack divided Poland
For the first time in the history of NATO, a member state has been attacked by a rival.
The incident involved 19 Russian combat drones (there is no confirmation that they were equipped with warheads), some of which entered Poland from Belarus. The Kremlin must have been aware that casualties were a real possibility (one home was destroyed, but no one was injured).
Read more about what lies behind this incursion in the article by Project Syndicate contributor Sławomir Sierakowski: A test for Poland and NATO: the consequences of the Russian drone attack.
The author questions whether the 10 September drone incursion into Poland can truly be considered an act of aggression, but notes that the treaty does not specify what kind of attack is needed to trigger Article 5, nor even how NATO countries should respond. The status of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which enshrines NATO members’ mutual defence pledge, seems unclear.
Sierakowski argues that despite the bilateral Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 military exercises, provocations have always been part of Russia's repertoire, and similar military exercises preceded several of Russia’s recent invasions of neighboring countries, including Ukraine in 2022.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasised that there is "no reason to claim we’re on the brink of war."
"But this is more of an attempt to avoid panic and heightening tensions with Russia," writes the Project Syndicate contributor.
He is convinced that the drone attack tests the unity of Polish leadership in the face of the Russian threat.
US President Donald Trump and Polish President Karol Nawrocki are actively trying to keep Tusk’s government away from the White House. Trump has long avoided contact with Tusk, a candid critic, and is insisting that only Nawrocki, a like-minded right-wing populist, may represent Poland in US talks with Russia.
Along with the drones, Sławomir Sierakowski warns, has come a Russian disinformation blitz aimed at convincing Poles that "Ukraine is dragging Poland into war."
"This is perhaps even more dangerous than the drone attack, because the alliance between Poland and Ukraine is what prevents Russia from being able to change the borders in this part of Europe," the author notes.
He calls on Germany, Czechia and other countries where anti-Ukrainian sentiment is growing should also intensify their efforts to combat disinformation.
The Project Syndicate contributor believes that Russia’s drone attack is a test not only of Poland’s combat capabilities and the West’s unity, but above all of Trump.
Incidentally, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stressed that Putin, by escalating attacks on Ukraine and sending drones into Poland, is "mocking Donald Trump’s peace efforts."
In the author’s view, Europe certainly passed the test of unity and speed. Against this backdrop, the lack of response from the US seems significant.
More details can be found in Sławomir Sierakowski’s column, which was originally published on the Project Syndicate website and is reprinted with permission of the rights holder.
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18 of September 2025
