Russian forces threaten to seize Chasiv Yar, paving the way for continued offensive in Donetsk region – ISW
Military analysts noted that Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka could provide tactical advantages.
The Russian offensive operation to capture Chasiv Yar opens the nearest prospects for Russian troops to make an operationally significant advance.
The Russian troops in the Avdiivka region are still approximately 30 kilometers away from their intended target in Pokrovsk and about 17 kilometers away from the sizable villages to the east of Pokrovsk.
Even if Russian tactical gains force the Ukrainian military to retreat to positions further west, the current Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka will unlikely be operationally significant in the near term.
The Russian government is putting more pressure on Chasiv Yar. Russian troops, who are now positioned on the eastern edge of the city, have increased their efforts to take control of the city since March of 2024.
The offensive operation to capture Chasiv Yar will probably allow Russian troops to launch further offensive operations against the cities that form a significant defensive belt of Ukraine in the Donetsk region.
The Russian forces are probably attempting to capture as much land as they can before American security aid arrives. This infusion of weapons will greatly enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities in the next few weeks. The Russian military leadership may increase their offensive actions towards the northwest of Avdiivka, as this area presents more chances for swift tactical victories, even though these gains may not be strategically significant.
ISW Key Findings as of April 25:
For reference:
The Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that the Russians were to capture the town of Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut by May 9. The capture of the city would create conditions for the enemy's further advance to the Kramatorsk agglomeration.
However, the ISW believes that the Russian army may not have time to capture the entire town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region by May 9 but only enter its eastern district. However, the lack of artillery and air defense equipment in Ukraine's armed forces will allow the Russian invaders to advance faster during the operation to capture the city.
The Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Syrskyi, has reported that the situation on the eastern front has dramatically deteriorated in the past few days. This is due to the increased intensity of Russian troops' offensive actions following the presidential elections in Russia.
Recently, soldiers from the "Black Swan" assault battalion of Ukraine's armed forces, currently deployed on the eastern front, showcased the conditions in Chasiv Yar.
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6 of May 2024
