Four reasons why the risk of political violence in the US is rising sharply
Just days earlier, former Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio and other insurrectionists pardoned by President Donald Trump for crimes related to the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol had been celebrated as heroes at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a major gathering of Trump’s "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement. As one of them boasted at the event, "We’re like gods."
During the conference, Tarrio led a group back to the US Capitol, where they chanted, "Whose house? Our house!" He was later arrested for assaulting a protester.
After his release, Tarrio traveled to the Principles First venue, where he verbally harassed Michael Fanone, the former Washington police officer who was severely injured while defending the Capitol during the insurrection.
"Bomb threat! You need to exit – now," a security officer shouted at me as I observed the Principles First conference, a gathering of moderate Republicans in Washington, on February 22.
Moments later, we learned that the threat had come from an untraceable email claiming that four pipe bombs had been planted "to honor the J6 hostages recently released by Emperor Trump."
Read more about why the US is facing a deep crisis in the column by Alex Hinton, Director of the Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights (USA): Anticipating a bomb: how Trump turned the US into a tinderbox.
According to the author, four key factors are driving this surge in political violence.
First, despite branding himself as a "law and order" president, Trump has helped cultivate a culture of impunity. It’s not just that he is a convicted felon whose three remaining criminal cases were dismissed or suspended after his re-election. Long before that, he famously proclaimed, "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters."
The second factor is past acts of political violence, which heighten the risk of future violence. As I explained in It Can Happen Here, the US has a long history of political violence to draw on. But even recent events offer ample cause for alarm.
Third, American society remains deeply divided. In my research on US political culture, I have seen this polarization firsthand, as people on both the left and the right often demonize the other side as authoritarian, framing politics in apocalyptic us-versus-them terms.
Lastly, the risk of political violence tends to rise during tumultuous periods, especially when the legitimacy of elections is challenged or when democratic institutions are weakened. Both conditions were present in the lead-up to the 2021 insurrection, and they persist today.
Trump is now waging an aggressive campaign to consolidate executive power.
Since returning to the White House, he has sought to undermine every check on presidential authority, including judicial independence, civil society, academic freedom, public-service neutrality, press freedom, and even basic civil liberties.
As a result, today’s America is a tinderbox. When and where the next would-be assassin might strike is anyone’s guess, but one thing is certain: the risk of political violence will spike ahead of the 2026 midterm elections and could reach crisis levels by the presidential election of 2028.
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19 of July 2025
