"Aliyev Realizes That Tomorrow Russia Could Cease To Exist"

02.07.2025, 15:29 charter97.org

"Aliyev Realizes That Tomorrow Russia Could Cease To Exist"72.07.2025, 14:47 4,406 Arif YunusovPhoto: kavkaz-uzel.euBaku enters into an open game against Moscow.Tensions between Baku and Moscow have been going on for several months. On June 27, mass detentions of Azerbaijanis took place in Yekaterinburg, as a result of lawlessness of law enforcers two brothers - Ziyaddin and Gusein Safarov - were killed. After that, there is an unprecedented aggravation of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan.Why did the Kremlin go for a demonstrative humiliation of the Azerbaijani diaspora now? What is behind these steps? The site Charter97.org talked to ex-political prisoner and head of the Department of Conflict and Migration Studies at the Institute for Peace and Democracy Arif Yunusov about it:- In Russia, attacks, pogroms, atrocities by law enforcers are a common practice. And there have been murders, and torture. That's why it's not surprising what happened, say, in Yekaterinburg. What is surprising is that the Azerbaijani authorities reacted to it.In the past, for example, the question immediately arose: why did Ilham Aliyev not retaliate? The life of an Azerbaijani in Russia is the same as that of all migrants. And all because the main thing here is geopolitics. Since March, the situation has begun to change. Negotiations started in the region, which are still ongoing - between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. Turkey plays a key role. Recently, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev met in Istanbul, where they discussed rapprochement between the countries.The two sides - Azerbaijan and Armenia - have already announced that the text of the peace treaty has been finalized. The document is ready, it only needs to be signed. Azerbaijan has been dragging its feet because behind its back stood Russia, which is categorically against the conclusion of peace. What does such a treaty mean? It means that Armenia will automatically establish good relations with Turkey. It will turn out that Armenia has excellent relations with Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan and Georgia.Then why do we need a Russian military base? Now there is only one country in the South Caucasus - Armenia. Its presence allows Russia to exert constant pressure and prepare coups. Pashinyan long ago raised with Vladimir Putin the issue of withdrawal of Russian border guards from Armenia's borders with Iran and Turkey. And he achieved this - the border guards were also removed from Yerevan airport.And then the issue of the military base arose. And the base means both relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. The peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia radically changes the geopolitical situation - and, of course, it is not in the interests of Russia. That's why it was given the go-ahead.Russia will not go to open war with Azerbaijan now - it will be a second front, it is bogged down in Ukraine. Besides, Baku relies on Turkey's support. A couple of years ago, perhaps Moscow could have acted. Not now. Russia is so weakened that even Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are sending it notes of protest because of the persecution of their citizens.The new thing in this situation is that Azerbaijan has gone for an open conflict. If you look closely: a mirror image of demonstrativeness. The problem is not what happened in Yekaterinburg - similar things have already happened in the history of Azerbaijan and Russia. The scenario was repeated: a command was given, old cases were brought up, and the first people were found. OMON stormed in, tortured them for several hours, two of them were beaten to death. No ribs were found on them - their bodies were turned into a mess. Three are now in intensive care in Russia, between life and death. It was a demonstrative action - intimidation. A message to Aliyev: "Look, we are starting. Tomorrow our propagandists will spin the theme of 'Azerbaijani mafia', the anger of the Russian people."Last year Aliyev did not do this. In an interview with Dmitry Kiselyov, he said, "Putin and I are in the same boat." He was silent then. But now Aliyev wants to get out of that boat. Now there is the United States. Behind-the-scenes negotiations are underway. Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Whitkoff Steve Whitkoff stopped in Baku after meeting with Putin on the way. Officially - "to refuel." In reality, he talked to Aliyev for four hours. About what? Clearly, not about the weather. It was about Turkey, Israel, Iran, Russia and its role in the Caucasus. Then active actions started. Turkey got involved. There is a process of ousting Russia from the South Caucasus.Russia has only one weapon left - the Diaspora. The only trump card is to organize deportations of several tens of thousands of people and destabilize the situation inside Azerbaijan. After that, perhaps Aliyev will refuse to sign a peace treaty. Here is the real reason.- Aliyev has taken on Russian propagandists in Azerbaijan. How deep has Moscow's influence penetrated?"- First, Moscow's influence starts with Aliyev himself and his family. The government in Baku is pro-Russian. What we are seeing now is a show, a demonstrative action.The same thing - arrest of so-called "criminal elements": 10 or already 13 people. They detained IT guys from Russia who fled the war. We have fewer of them than in Armenia or Georgia, but there are some. So they were arrested and beaten in a showy manner. It's a mirror answer: "You take ours, we take yours." Only without torture and murder. This is a demonstrative response. Aliyev shows: "I am not afraid of you."- How can the conflict between Aliyev and Putin develop? - The key point is that Aliyev and Putin are both dictators, in the same boat. But it would be more favorable for Aliyev to be in the boat with Trump. So far, he doesn't want an open conflict. Azerbaijan tried to distance itself from Moscow carefully. But the Kremlin found out about everything ahead of time, and the noise started. Now, for several days, hysteria will be stirred up - both in Russia and Azerbaijan.In Azerbaijan, not a single deputy, not a single media outlet acts without instructions from above. And suddenly, the state television, which is afraid to put even a comma without authorization, compares Putin with Stalin. Everything was written in advance. One of the deputies said that Azerbaijan needs diversification of foreign policy. Baku had never said that before. It was the rhetoric of Armenians: they say we need good relations not only with Russia, but also with the West. This caused irritation in the Kremlin. In Georgia they also said: "We do not want to quarrel with Russia, but it is necessary to develop ties with the West". This was not the case in Azerbaijan before - Russia was the main ally.But now Azerbaijan realizes: the world is changing. There is Trump. Tomorrow Russia may cease to exist. That is why the best strategy is diversification, estrangement. In order to have normal relations with the West at the moment of "hour X". Now it is necessary to solve the current problem. Aliyev is waiting for a call from Putin - exactly from him. Azerbaijan feels Russia's weakness. When the plane was shot down, Aliyev demanded that Putin call and apologize. Moscow did not want to do that for a long time, negotiations were underway. It is the same now: Aliyev needs Putin to apologize, promise to investigate and punish those responsible. Then the tension will subside. Most likely, this will happen in a couple of days. Naturally, all Russians in Azerbaijan will be released. It will turn out that the beaten "OCG members" are in fact ordinary IT guys.But a lot depends on how things go between Putin and Trump. This is big geopolitics. Open confrontation is disadvantageous to neither Baku nor Moscow. Russia is using Azerbaijan to circumvent sanctions. Oil, gas - and Azerbaijan makes money on it.PATREONSupport the website Write your comment 7 You can support the website Charter97.orgMULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, WarszawaIBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123SWIFT: BIGBPLPWName of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aimsYou can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.comFollow Charter97.org social media accountsFacebookYouTubeX.comvkontakteok.ruInstagramRSSTelegram