Will corruption scandals topple Spain’s governmen and could that benefit Ukraine?

02.07.2025, 15:27 eurointegration.com.ua

Will Spain’s current government fall? The question is not accidental, as the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, is now experiencing a serious crisis.

The situation has reached such a level of tension that it raises high risks of snap elections.

The reason is a series of corruption scandals surrounding the prime minister’s closest circle, which has even led to the arrest of one of Sánchez’s key allies, Santos Cerdán.

Read more about the crisis in Spain and its possible consequences, including for Ukraine, in the article by Iryna Kutielieva, a European Pravda journalist: The ‘big construction’ Spanish style: will corruption scandals bury Sánchez’s government?

The arrest of Santos Cerdán became known on Monday, 30 June.

Although the arrest was expected, it was still sensational. Spanish law enforcement had not detained such a "big fish" for a long time. And it may be just the beginning.

Spain’s Civil Guard’s Central Operative Unit (UCO) has evidence linking Santos Cerdán, the third-ranking figure in the Socialist Party, to receiving bribes.

Although Cerdán claimed in court that he was a victim of "political persecution," the judge granted the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s request to place the former top official in custody.

The main reason for this decision was the "obvious" risk that Cerdán "could hide, alter, or destroy evidence relevant to the case."

This last argument is very important: it indicates the court’s confidence that despite his resignation, Cerdán retained his political influence, including over the head of government.

As the Socialist Party’s secretary, he managed its personnel policy, including drawing up candidate lists for parliament. As a result, a significant part of the party’s parliamentary group owes Cerdán in some way.

Even more important, however, is his closeness to Prime Minister Sánchez.

Thanks to Cerdán, the head of government maintained strict control over his party. In particular, Cerdán skillfully sidelined internal critics of the prime minister.

The Cerdán case is far from the only high-profile scandal in the prime minister’s entourage.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has apologised to citizens for the recent scandals and promised "decisive action" to fight corruption in the party.

At the same time, he insists he wants to hold on until the scheduled elections in 2027 and does not consider snap elections or a government reshuffle. However, the likelihood of early elections is only growing.

This question now depends on the support of Sánchez’s government by the Socialist Party’s coalition partner – the far-left Sumar party.

The current scandals could also hurt Sumar’s ratings, so that party is now quite critical of the government.

Moreover, pressure on Sánchez for snap elections is increasing within his own Socialist Party. The prime minister’s fellow party members fear that the accumulation of scandals will "bury" the party’s ratings.

In such a situation, the snap elections seem the lesser evil.

However, in the case of the snap elections, a change of power in Spain is almost guaranteed.

The far-right Vox party has benefited most from the current scandals. The only realistic future coalition format would be an alliance between the center-right People’s Party and the far-right Vox.

It’s far from certain that such a change would benefit Ukraine.

That said, the probability of a radical shift in Spain’s foreign policy is also low.

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