How much must Europe spend to stop Putin

01.07.2025, 16:20 eurointegration.com.ua

Last week, members of the Supervisory Board of the Yalta European Strategy – Carl Bildt, Aleksander Kwaśniewski, Sanna Marin and Kajsa Ollongren – visited Kyiv last week after an unprecedented Russian drone attack destroyed residential buildings.

Their conclusion from speaking to officials, experts and military leaders is: there is a clear and imminent danger for Europe if they don’t act more decisively now.

Read more about what Europe must do to help Ukraine stop the Russian aggressor and ensure its own security in the article by members of the Supervisory Board of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) – Carl Bildt, Aleksander Kwaśniewski, Sanna Marin and Kajsa Ollongren: The cost of saving Europe: what the EU must do now to stop Putin.

Ukrainian soldiers hold the front with courage and innovation. But while Ukrainians will never stop resisting, without more military support Ukraine can lose more territory. More cities might be captured.

This would put over 500 million European citizens at risk. The Kremlin wants to change borders beyond Ukraine in its attempt to restore its sphere of influence.

If Russia wins in Ukraine, they will not only multiply their hybrid attacks that already now do real damage in Europe. They can not rule out that they will also prepare to attack NATO and EU countries militarily.

Now is the time to act. Or we will regret to not have given more in summer 2025.

How exactly should aid be increased?

Ukraine has capacity to produce itself much of the weapons it needs urgently. The unused potential is US$10-15 billion and growing.

This, Europe would have to take over. But to allow Ukraine to stop Russia, needed are additional US$30-40 billion per year for Ukrainian arms production and acquisition on the market.

So instead of US$40 billion p.a. until now, Europe would have to provide US$110-120 billion.

Why exactly that amount?

A year of war costs Ukraine around $100 billion.

Of this international support, almost US$40 billion per year have come from the US. This, Europe would have to take over.

But to allow Ukraine to stop Russia, needed are additional US$30-40 billion per year for Ukrainian arms production and acquisition on the market.

These US$110-120 billion are about 0,6% of the GDP of European NATO members (US$20 trillion). Until now, European NATO members gave about 0,2% of their GDP to Ukraine (bilaterally and through the EU).

If Europe gives 0,6% of its GDP to Ukraine, this can stop Russia in Ukraine and hamper Russian preparation for attacking Europe.

It will buy time to build mid-term deterrence: to grow the European defense industry, devise and implement security guarantees for Ukraine, fast-track Ukrainian EU integration.

Such European decisiveness will also signal to the US: We don’t free-ride but take our fate into our own hands.

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