Trump's Cunning Plan
Trump's Cunning Plan28.06.2025, 9:49 3,026 The President of the United States has voiced very clear messages.The head of the Pentagon Pete Hegseth recently made a statement according to which the United States is going to cut funding for military aid to Ukraine next year. Later, The Telegraph published a piece where the author pointed out that, in this way, the Trump administration sent a signal: Washington is going to shift the issue of military aid to Kiev to Europe. And in my opinion, we should be prepared for such a scenario.Trump says a lot of incomprehensible things, but sometimes he makes very clear messages. Amid the scandals of the tariff war between the US and Europe, Trump said that Americans would sell weapons to Europeans anyway. Even if the EU then sells or transfers those weapons to Ukraine, Trump would be fine with that. This is the main message from Trump because the Americans are interested in Europe buying weapons from them. Moreover, when the United States talks about increasing defense spending by Europe, they mean exactly the purchase of American weapons, not the development of the European defense-industrial complex.Whether Trump will agree to a conditional lend-lease or direct arms sales to Ukraine is an open question. In general, the forms and volumes of arms deliveries to Kiev will change, but the Americans will not give up military aid to Ukraine completely. And even Hegseth's statement above is not colored by pessimism - it does not mean that the aid will stop completely.Trump and his team want to skip between the drops: to sell weapons to Ukraine, but at the same time not to quarrel with Putin. I don't know how they'll manage to combine the two. However, there is still a lot of time before next year, and the position of the United States leadership may change radically. Half a year ahead, even a change of the American leadership is possible.If we talk about how critical the assistance to Ukraine from the United States is, it is worth paying attention to air defense. The aid is critical, first of all, in the context of ballistics. Right now, none of our European partners has offered better missile defenses than the U.S. Patriot SAMs. There are few such installations and fewer and fewer missiles, as evidenced by every Russian bombardment.But if we analyze the air defense situation itself, we can come to the conclusion that ballistics or cruise missiles are not the most significant threat. The most serious threat is the simple and pre-doped Shaheds, which have already managed to become Russia's Geraniums. There are a lot of them. Let me explain. If, for example, 10 ballistic missiles fly, and 9 are shot down, it means that the interception rate is 90%. But one missile still gets through and can hit the entrance of an apartment building or a factory floor. But if 400 Shaheds are flying, even with an 80% kill efficiency, 50 drones can reach their targets - and that means hitting 50 homes, factories or energy infrastructure. This is why Russian drones pose the greatest threat today. But we are capable of overcoming it even without American help. It will require considerable effort, but we have the potential to solve this problem.It is also worth remembering the exchange of intelligence information. When the Americans suspended it in spring, Ukraine was immediately approached by a number of our partners who offered assistance in electronic, satellite, military and civilian intelligence. And it was not only the Europeans who offered help.A sudden halt of certain American aid could be a blow to Ukraine. If, for example, Trump, Musk or Hegseth suddenly come out and say: "Hop, we'll stop aid to the Ukrainians in half an hour", it will become a problem and create a window of opportunity for the enemy. Shutting down Starlink is already a powerful blow. But if we know about it in advance, there will be a search for alternatives, and the problem will not become so painful. For example, if the Americans told us now that there would be no aid from March 2026, we would find an alternative.In general, there are always risks of suspending aid programs to Ukraine. The United States provides aid through several programs, each of which, not even from a political or military, but from a business point of view, has its own conditions. There are contracts that are quite problematic to pause or stop. There are other agreements in which a loophole can be found if desired.One of them is the one concerning air defense equipment for Ukraine, which the U.S. eventually diverted to the Middle East. The agreement stipulated that America, in case of a threat to its national security, could redirect these complexes to protect U.S. interests.Our cooperation with the Middle East can also be recalled here. Ukraine was supposed to supply a number of countries with anti-tank missile systems, but after Russia's full-scale attack they were told that now we need these weapons ourselves, as there is a terrible threat to our state. Ukraine will fulfill its obligations, but will do it later.Of course, many contracts have such issues. At the right moment certain conditions can be changed. Contracts are like international agreements: documents work when the parties are interested in their realization. There can be many legal conflicts that allow to change agreements or bypass fulfillment of obligations.Pavel Lakiychuk, "Glavred".PATREONSupport the website Write your comment You can support the website Charter97.orgMULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, WarszawaIBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123SWIFT: BIGBPLPWName of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aimsYou can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.comFollow Charter97.org social media accountsFacebookYouTubeX.comvkontakteok.ruInstagramRSSTelegram
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