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Dirk Schuebel: Democracy In Belarus Is Not Question Of 'If', It's Question Of 'When'

charter97.org

Dirk Schuebel: Democracy In Belarus Is Not Question Of 'If', It's Question Of 'When'

Dirk Schuebel: Democracy In Belarus Is Not Question Of 'If', It's Question Of 'When'9.08.2022, 7:50 2,440 DIRK SCHUEBELThe European Union will be on the side of the Belarusian people.It has been exactly two years since the Belarusians took to the streets of their cities to protest against the elections stolen by the Lukashenka regime. Despite the war in Ukraine being the dominant topic on the information agenda today, Belarus is not forgotten in the West."From the EU perspective, Lukashenka has no democratic legitimacy whatsoever. His continued complicity in Russia's war against Ukraine, moreover, makes him an accomplice to the crimes that are committed in Ukraine every day. It is noteworthy that the EU will not forget the victims of the Lukashenka regime, its past and recent crimes," the EU ambassador to Belarus, Dirk Schuebel, said. Also, in an interview with Charter97.org, he spoke about sanctions, the future of the Lukashenka regime and support for a democratic Belarus.Here is the full text of the interview with Dirk Schuebel.— We are talking right before the second anniversary of the Belarusian revolution. Which memories do you have associated with the events which took place in the August 2020?— I have very vivid memories of this time like it was almost yesterday. I would say that I remember the many thousands of people that for many weeks were on the streets in Minsk.What were my feelings at that time? My first feeling was surprise because not many people had expected such a strong reaction by the Belarusian people against the massive falsifications that the regime undertook. Second, there was appreciation for what the people did because they stood up for themselves, for their rights not to be betrayed. And my third feeling after seeing the reaction by the regime was anger about how the regime brutally knocked down the protests, put thousands of people in jail and mistreated them.Also, I was a little bit proud of having being there in that moment, of having witnessed this unique situation in which the Belarusian people to such a degree stood up against the regime.— Today Lukashenka regime has pushed Belarus into the war with Ukraine. Is there an understanding in the EU that the overwhelming majority of the Belarusian people are against the aggressive actions of the regime?— Yes, we are very much aware of the situation and we are trying to separate between the regime and the people of Belarus. We fully realize that people were and remain against Belarus becoming an accomplice in Russia's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine. We are also aware of some surveys that have been undertaken that around 90% of the population is against Belarusian participation in the war in Ukraine. We are also every day made aware that countless Belarusians are intimidated and persecuted by the regime for standing up in favor of Ukraine and against Russia's war.Our policy towards Belarus has been unambiguous, I would say: it is expressed in unwavering support and solidarity with the Belarusian people. Also we are implementing sanctions, targeting the regime that continues to repress the people of Belarus and that is supporting Russia's war against Ukraine.— Lukashenka has asked Putin to upgrade Belarusian military aircrafts so they would be capable of carrying nuclear weapons. What will be the reaction of the EU if two dictators actually deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus?— In addition to our condemnation of the involvement of the Belarusian regime in Russia's aggression against Ukraine, we also called on Belarus to refrain from such action and to abide by its international obligations including under the non-proliferation treaty. The deletion of the reference in the Belarus Constitution to the country's non-nuclear status was indeed another very worrying change, which added to unacceptable attempts to redefine the European security architecture. The presence of Russian nuclear weapons on the Belarusian territory would indeed be an additional threat to the security of Europe and would without any doubt require a strong response.— Are there any options under development in the EU for putting pressure on the Lukashenka regime in case he sends Belarusian troops into the territory of Ukraine on the full scale?— The EU, the G7, the UN General Assembly and NATO have deplored the involvement of the regime in Belarus in the unlawful use of force against Ukraine. We called on Belarus to abide by their international obligations, refrain from and end its complicity in Russia's war. The UN General Assembly in March demanded that the Russian Federation immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.While we do not like to discuss hypothetical scenarios, I think it is safe to assume that any further steps in the opposite direction will be met with a strong and coordinated response.Since the first day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU and NATO, EU member states and NATO allies have intensified their work and cooperation, demonstrating full unity and common resolve in supporting Ukraine as it defend itself and works to protect its population.— How do you see near future Lukashenka personally? Is his fate being decided in Ukraine?— I think it is not for me to comment on Lukashenka's future as such. However, what I would like to stress is that for the EU he lacks any democratic legitimacy. His recent complicity in Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine makes him, in addition, co-responsible for the crimes we are witnessing in Ukraine every day. Let me underline that the EU will not forget the victims of the Lukashenka regime and its past and present crimes.As to your second question, the future of a democratic Belarus depends very much on the Ukrainian people's resolve and the ability to defend themselves and no less on the resolve of all people of honor and dignity to stand with Ukraine.In a way, Ukrainians are not fighting for themselves only. They're fighting for their neighbors as well. And they're also fighting for the European Union.— Do EU sanctions against the Lukashenka regime work? Which sectors of economy are affected the most by the sanctions?— Let me first recall, perhaps, the purpose of sanctions: from our side, it is basically to indicate that certain conduct is unacceptable and cannot go unpunished. So, what means of punishment do we have? We have sanctions.As to economic sanctions, their role is to limit the regime's ability to pursue destructive policies. Starting with the Council Conclusions of October 2020, following the election falsification and subsequent mass repression of peaceful protesters, civil society, and media by the regime in Belarus, we have imposed a number of restrictive measures in line with our gradual approach.By now, six packages of restrictions have been adopted, also in response to the landing on a false pretext of the Ryanair flight in May 2021 (we have just seen a very clear ICAO report on this), also the instrumentalization of vulnerable migrants from 2021 and onwards, and more recently, over the Belarusian regime's complicity in Russia's war against Ukraine.As the stronger of the measures are coming into force, and the more measures we have, we begin to see an effect of those measures. But let me also tell you that restrictive measures as such are not a silver bullet or an instrument of anyone's first choice. But they do make a difference if they are applied consistently in a calibrated and targeted manner. Let me also recall that sanctions are just one of our political instruments. They do not appear in isolation. They're accompanied by other policy choices, such as the support for the people Belarus. So, it's a mix of measures.Then we have also the impact of Belarus and Russia's own actions resulting in capital, including human capital, and corporate flight (people are leaving), in the reputational damage, in the loss of trade connections, transportatio and logistical chains. They do add to the actual impact of the sanctions.What we intend to do is if the situation does not improve and our demands are not responded to? We will continue our gradual approach to sanctions. But let me also say that sanctions are reversible and when adopting them, the EU always says what are the conditions under which they can be reversed. Unfortunately, we have not seen any positive reactions so far from the regime.Which areas have been particularly affected so far? I think we see in the potash sector, means are searched for how to export potash to other countries. So, I think, there is an effect. And, I think, also the banking sector has seen an effect and there are others as well, but I would not like to single out more at this moment. I think we will hopefully soon see a concrete assessment of how these sanctions are working.— Back in June, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US was considering at the time the possibility of suspending sanctions against Belarusian potash fertilizers. What is the EU position of this issue?— The subject of potash fertilizers is often linked to that of grain export, which is a big issue in Ukraine at this moment in time, as you can see in the news every day. Let me say that in July the EU welcomed the agreements, which were signed by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the UN to unblock the Black sea for Ukrainian export of grain. Russia's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine is having a devastating global impact — we are aware of that. Russia is deliberately destroying Ukraine's agricultural and transport infrastructure and equipment, causing shortages and creating worldwide food supply chain problems through the blocking of Ukraine's ports and looting of Ukraine's grain, which endangers food security for millions of people across the world. These agreements that I mentioned offer an opportunity to start reversing th
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