What the US Midterms Mean for Ukraine, the Sanctions Bill, and Russia’s Mounting Losses — Interview with Dan Rice

04.11.2026, 10:46 uatv.ua

America votes on November 3 — and the outcome could have major consequences for Ukraine.Could a Democratic-controlled Congress accelerate military aid to Ukraine and challenge the White House’s approach to Moscow? What happens if Republicans retain control? And why is the Kremlin reportedly planning to return to peace talks just one week after the vote?

UATV English host Henry Keen speaks with Dan Rice, President of American University Kyiv, about the stakes of the US midterm elections, Washington’s support for Ukraine and Russia’s diplomatic calculations.

Also in this episode: Russia’s largest mechanized assault of the year in the Pokrovsk direction and how Ukrainian drones, ground robots and long-range strikes are transforming modern warfare.

Could the balance of power in Washington change the course of the war?

Watch the full interview, subscribe to UATV English and share your thoughts in the comments!

— Americans go to the polls on Tuesday, right? And the forecasts are not too kind to President Trump’s party. Democrats are clear favorites to take the House, and have a, let’s put it mildly, good chance in the Senate too. Even though not a single Ukrainian passport holder, of course, participates in this ballot directly, for Ukraine it is maybe the most important election of the year. Mr. Rice, how closely are Ukrainians watching the November 3rd event, and what exactly is at stake for them, do you think?

— Our tradition and our election process is to have the president elected every four years, and then every two years we have an election overall. So the president is not running right now. There is no presidential election. What typically happens in America is that Congress gets elected every two years. We have 435 members of Congress — it’s like our Rada, the Ukrainian Rada — and they represent each of their districts across the country. So there are 435 districts in the 50 states. And then there are senators, who are elected every six years, so not every two years does a senator go up for re-election; it’s every third election. Some of our Senate seats are in play, but every one of the members of the House is in play.

Whoever wins the majority in the Senate and the House controls the agenda for the next two years. The Senate and the House have committees, and for Ukraine, the most important committee in the House is the Foreign Affairs Committee, and in the Senate, the most important for Ukraine is the Senate Armed Services Committee. So if it flips from Republican control to Democratic control, the Democrats will control the agenda for the next two years. No matter what President Trump, who’s going to be in power for the next two years, wants, the agenda in Congress is decided by the winner of this election.

— Well, it sounds like very good news to me. Democrats are already making promises, right? We all heard Congressman Jim Himes (ph) say, “Hey, packages for Ukraine will move on” — I’m quoting now — “not in nine months, but in nine days, or even nine weeks.” Words are all fine, don’t get me wrong, but we heard words before — “the war will end in 24 hours” and things like that. But there is indeed a bill to block, for example, the diesel deal with Russia, and Reuters reports that bipartisan support could also be strong enough to override any presidential veto. So it sounds great, again, at the campaign stage. But the new Congress will not be seated until January, and the president still runs foreign policy. So what can a Democratic Congress really do to restrain a president, if needed, who keeps, at the moment, giving Putin the benefit of the doubt — putting it mildly? And how soon do you think that could turn into badly needed actual weapons on Ukraine’s front line?

— No matter what, President Trump is still the president after this election. So you have two phases that you want to look at. The first is the day after the election, November 3rd through January 20th. If the Democrats win the House and the Senate, which I think is expected — there’s a likelihood, it usually flips; whoever the president is usually drives voter turnout, so the opposing side gets all fired up, whether it’s a Democrat in the presidency or a Republican. For a short window, from November 3rd through January 20th, about 78 days, you’ll have what’s called a lame duck Congress. Say the Republicans lose and the Democrats are going to take charge in January. Well, you have 78 days where the Republicans still control the House, the Senate, and the presidency. They will be trying to jam through all kinds of legislation, and that means money. They’ll be trying to achieve their objectives; what those objectives are is highly debated.

But then the Democrats would take charge on January 20th, and they still have to get things approved by the president, or they have to have what’s called a supermajority. So you really have to have both sides on board to pass something.

Now, my hope is that this whole election will help Ukraine in many ways. One is that President Trump has certain things he wants to achieve if they lose the Senate and House, between those 78 days, and if he does want to achieve those, he has to have his party on board, the Republicans. The Republicans are saying they will squash anything if he doesn’t sign the sanctions bill against Russia. So, either way, my hope is that the sanctions bill gets signed by President Trump. And I think that’s why he’s held off on it — to be able to use it as a carrot to inspire Congress and motivate them.

If the sanctions bill is signed, it is going to be really damaging to Russia, in addition to, most importantly, the attacks that Ukraine is successfully achieving on Russian refineries and other targets.

But if we get the sanctions on top of it, it’ll be a stake in the heart of the Russian economy. So my hope is that these elections will create an environment in which the sanctions bill gets signed by President Trump.

— Again, amen to that, I’m in full swing — we all want that. But let me play devil’s advocate here and imagine the opposite, right? Forecasts are forecasts, and American voters have surprised the experts before. It happened before, Dan. So if Republicans hold on to Congress, or at least to the Senate, does anything change for Ukraine at all? Would the White House read it as a mandate to push Kyiv even harder and close a deal with Moscow faster? Or are there still enough Republicans on Capitol Hill who remember that the Graham–Blumenthal sanctions bill passed the Senate 86 to 11, just by the way? If Republicans stay in power, in which direction would US policy move, do you think?

— If the elections result in the Republicans keeping the House and the Senate, that will reinforce whatever President Trump is doing, or will want to continue to do. Whether people agree with it or disagree is a separate story, but it will give him a mandate to be able to do whatever he wants in the next two years, because he will have the largely united support of the Senate and the House. But we’ll see — we only have a couple of days until we see. One of the challenges for the American process is that if the party opposite the president takes charge, it creates a stalemate and nothing gets done. So the good news is nothing gets done, and the bad news is nothing gets done. Our process gets stuck, so to speak, for two years, until there’s another election for the presidency, and then that’s up for grabs. That’s good and bad news for Ukraine. It means there’s going to be very little movement forward.

If the Democrats take charge, I think that’s a good signal for Ukraine that there will be more support, because right now, even in the Senate, 87% of the Senate, both sides, basically supports Ukraine, which is amazing. And that reflects the American support. Most Americans are supportive.

President Trump has been slow to respond, to say the least, and I think this could help entice him. So I’m hopeful that this election will help Ukraine. Bottom line.

— Yeah, exactly. In your Constitution, it reads “We the People,” not “the president.” 87% — it’s amazing, it’s unbelievable. We want to see it turned into Patriot interceptors as soon as possible.

— Yeah. Hopefully the Ukrainian people know that the American people are solidly behind Ukraine. I’ve never heard a single American say they support Russia, so I think that’s important to convey to your viewers: the American people are solidly behind Ukraine. How that evolves into policy decision-making is very different. We have three branches: the presidency, the Congress, and the judicial branch, the Supreme Court. President Trump likes to use his executive powers unilaterally, without Congress. He does things, and then opposing people have to take it through the Supreme Court, which takes time, to challenge his authority. But all in all, the American people are solidly behind Ukraine. I think that’ll be reflected in the polls, and I think the policies regarding Ukraine will hopefully be better in the lame duck period, and that hopefully we will get the sanctions signed that Lindsey Graham bravely fought for, along with Senator Blumenthal. Both senators came to visit American University Kyiv after visiting President Zelenskyy, who, by the way, I think is the greatest president in the history of democracy. He’s leading Ukraine very well, in my opinion, and I do think that under his leadership Ukraine will achieve victory and have peace, thanks to the Ukrainian armed forces. So thanks to all the soldiers who are serving and who have made the ultimate sacrifice for all of democracy.

— Thank you very much for your warm words, Dan. I think the American people are standing with Ukraine and for Ukraine. A lot has been done, indeed, and I think Putin feels that now, because he says he’s ready to resume trilateral talks. Look who’s talking. Around November 10th — exactly one week after the vote — the US and Israel are reportedly preparing major strikes on Iran after the