Russia loses 116 sq km in a month as front-line momentum shifts toward Ukraine — ISW
According to the report, occupying forces lost control over 116 square kilometers within a single month. This marks the first such case since August 2024, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched operations in the Kursk Oblast.
Analysts note that the pace of Russian advances has been declining, a trend ongoing since November 2025.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces have been conducting successful ground counterattacks, while precise medium-range strikes are disrupting Russian logistics chains. As a result, Russian units are being forced to switch to defensive positions in areas where they had previously planned offensives.
ISW links these developments to several factors affecting the combat effectiveness of Russian troops, including issues with command, communications, and logistics.
Among the key factors highlighted:
These factors have deepened existing weaknesses in the Russian military. According to ISW analysis, the lack of stable communication has significantly hindered coordination of offensive operations.
Weather conditions have also played a role. This winter was harsher than the previous one, with lower temperatures in Ukraine's east and significantly increased precipitation.
Currently, the frontline is experiencing what is commonly described as "rasputitsa" — muddy conditions caused by snowmelt and spring rains. This has made terrain difficult for heavy equipment, reducing mobility and in some cases leaving mechanized units stuck.
ISW analysts note that Russian forces typically attempt to resume active offensive operations in May, when the ground dries out. However, it remains unclear whether they have sufficient resources to do so this time.
According to analysts, the Kremlin is attempting to conceal the real situation on the battlefield by using a tactic of "infiltration." Small Russian groups enter so-called grey zones between Ukrainian positions. They do not establish stable control over these areas, but Russian propaganda presents such movements as "territorial gains."
Comparative data on Russian advances shows the following:
The Institute for the Study of War notes that Russia is attempting to create the impression of continuous progress. However, actual control over newly claimed areas remains limited, and a significant portion of these territories remains disputed, without stable consolidation.
Regarding the current situation in certain directions, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi stated that Ukraine has recorded "unusual activity" near the border with Belarus. According to him, small-scale provocations are possible from that direction, but they would come at a higher cost to Belarus itself.
It is also reported that Russian sources spread false information about advances in the Sumy region. According to available data, the settlement of Myropillia remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
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- May, 04
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5 of May 2026
