Four scenarios for Italy's elections: can Meloni stay in power and what is at stake for Ukraine?

29.10.2026, 17:07 eurointegration.com.ua

Following the final approval of the new electoral law on 10 October, parties are positioning themselves for a vote that could reshape Italy’s support for Kyiv.

In 2027, the Italian general election could take place between March and June or between September and December, during a key electoral cycle beginning with Spain in November 2026, followed by France in April and ending with Poland in the autumn of next year.

The debate over Ukraine in Italy reflects its longstanding pacifist traditions, the strong influence of Russian narratives and an extensive Russian disinformation campaign aimed at supporting populist parties across the political spectrum. The central issue is the continuation of Italian military aid to Ukraine.

Since the first day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Italy has consistently stood by Ukraine’s side.

A decisive role was played by Prime Minister Mario Draghi,

who adopted a firm pro-Ukrainian position and was the first leader of a major European country to back the decision to grant Ukraine candidate status for EU membership. According to former Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s latest book, whose account was confirmed by former Italian Ambassador Pier Francesco Zazo, it was during Draghi’s train journey with Macron and Scholz in June 2022 that the Italian prime minister persuaded a still-hesitant German chancellor to support this decision.

After the fall of Draghi’s government and the calling of elections, there were concerns that Italy’s next government would adopt a less supportive position towards Ukraine. However, the centre-right coalition led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, to the surprise of many, continued and strengthened her predecessor’s policy.

Based on the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker, Italy allocated €4.31 billion in bilateral financial (€0.48 billion), humanitarian (€0.83 billion) and military (€3 billion) assistance, representing 0.24% of its 2021 GDP. Italy’s attributed share of EU allocations, including the European Investment Bank (EIB), amounted to €13.80 billion.

Total bilateral and EU allocations therefore amounted to €18.11 billion, representing 1.02% of Italy’s 2021 GDP.

With the approval of the new Italian electoral law, it is now possible to outline different political scenarios based on current polling. The Stabilicum, an electoral law designed to guarantee a stable majority after the elections, is essentially a proportional system, but it includes a seat bonus to ensure a stable governing majority when certain conditions are met.

The governability bonus is triggered when a coalition finishes first and receives at least 42% of valid votes in the elections for both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, the two chambers of the Italian Parliament. If no coalition reaches the 42% threshold, seats are allocated on a purely proportional basis.

Another relevant element of the new electoral law is the requirement for each coalition to name the person it intends to propose to the President of the Republic as prime minister.

All party voting-intention figures below are drawn from the YouTrend/AGI Supermedia published on 15 October 2026, a weighted average of national voting-intention polls conducted between 1 and 14 October.

The first scenario is the re-election of the centre-right government, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, with more than 42% of the vote. According to current opinion polls, the centre-right coalition falls slightly short of the 42% threshold: Brothers of Italy (27.2%), Forza Italia (7.4%), the League (6%) and Noi Moderati (1.2%) together account for 41.8%.

However, a political agreement was reached with Sud Chiama Nord (1.1%) on 12 October, bringing the coalition’s combined support to 42.9%.

Meloni, whose government has become the longest-serving in the history of the Italian Republic, has taken a clear stance in support of Ukraine, despite the initial fears. In her address to the Italian Parliament ahead of the European Council meeting on 15–16 October, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was clear:

"Support for Ukraine is not an alternative to peace; it is what makes peace possible."

Meloni warned that if Ukraine stopped defending itself, the result would be the occupation of a European nation and a return to Soviet-style imperialism.

She reiterated her commitment to pursuing a just peace, even at the cost of political support: "Only a just peace can last. Only a just peace can safeguard Europe and our interests."

Meloni also criticised US President Trump’s diesel deal with Putin, describing it as "a legitimisation of Moscow while its bombs continue to fall on Ukrainian cities, new revenue to finance the war, and an implicit weakening of the leverage of sanctions" – elements that contradict the efforts made so far by Western countries.

Within the governing alliance, Brothers of Italy, Meloni’s party, and Forza Italia, led by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani, take a pro-European and pro-Ukrainian stance.

The League, the coalition’s third-largest party, led by Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, is

one of Italy’s most pro-Russian parties and has criticised support for Ukraine and its EU integration.

At a meeting of Patriots for Europe leaders in Brussels on 14 October, Salvini stated: "We cannot go on giving billions to Ukraine indefinitely.

Once the war is over, we have a duty to resume buying gas and oil wherever it is cheapest" – meaning Russia. Nevertheless, despite the League’s position, Meloni’s government has continued Draghi’s policy towards Ukraine and approved further military assistance.

The second scenario is a victory for the centre-left coalition, which is currently neck and neck with the centre-right in opinion polls, with both blocs slightly above the 42% threshold.

The Democratic Party (20.1%), the Five Star Movement (12.4%), the Green and Left Alliance (6.4%), Italia Viva (2.4%) and +Europa (1.7%) together account for 43.0%.

While the centre-right coalition is firmly led by Giorgia Meloni and is a consolidated governing alliance, the centre-left coalition has neither a common candidate for prime minister – its leadership is contested between Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement – nor a common government programme. This may affect the final electoral outcome.]

The position of this political bloc on Ukraine is fragmented, as illustrated by the fact that, following Meloni’s address to Parliament ahead of the European Council, the five parties presented five separate resolutions. Within the Democratic Party, the bloc’s largest member, there is a strongly pro-Ukrainian progressive minority.

However, the majority of the party and its leader, Elly Schlein, often remain vague on military aid to avoid irreconcilable differences with the other coalition partners, namely the Five Star Movement and the Green and Left Alliance. The Five Star Movement, the bloc’s second-largest member, recently approved its points for discussion within the coalition,

including the assertion that "continuing to supply weapons [to Ukraine] only makes peace more distant"

– a position on which Giuseppe Conte remains adamant.

The Green and Left Alliance’s programme states that "the delivery of weapons to Ukraine must stop immediately". Italia Viva and +Europa are pro-Ukrainian and are in favour of military assistance, but their political weight within the alliance is limited.

Given the general preference for pacifism and negotiations with Putin, and the fact that, according to an opinion poll, 46% of centre-left voters believe military aid should stop immediately, compared with 43% in favour of continuing it, a victory for the centre-left coalition could lead to a radical change in Italy’s position towards Ukraine.

Although current polling suggests that the centre-right bloc could win without him, an alliance with Italian MEP Roberto Vannacci and his far-right party, National Future (Futuro Nazionale), may be a tempting way to secure victory. The party currently stands at 7.2% in opinion polls, just below Forza Italia’s 7.4%.

Vannacci is open to such an agreement, provided that his red lines are respected, including an end to military and financial support for Ukraine.

Vannacci, a former paratrooper general previously unknown outside military circles, has been described as "a Trojan horse for Russian influence inside Italy" by the European Council on Foreign Relations. From February 2021 to May 2022, he served as military attaché at the Italian Embassy in Moscow.

It was during this period that his sympathies for Russia emerged.

As former British defence attaché to Russia John Foreman told the Financial Times, General Vannacci "was of that Italian military type who thinks we shouldn’t be having a confrontation with Russia – that Russia should be a partner". In August 2023, he published his controversial book The World Upside Down, which brought him popularity.

After being elected to the European Parliament with the League in 2024, Vannacci left the party in February 2026 and founded National Future.

Vannacci has adopted Russian propaganda narratives, claiming that rising oil prices are due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries rather than the war in Iran, that the EU should halt its financial support for Ukraine because of corruption scandals, and that Ukraine should not join the EU.

National Future’s programme proposes ending military aid to Ukraine and adopting a more conciliatory approach towards Russia, with the aim of restoring normal diplomatic and commercial relations.

While an alliance with Vannacci could strengthen the centre-right coalition electorally, the price could be high: for Prime Minister Meloni and her government, a breakdown in relations with mainstream European partners and the alienation of more moderate voters; for the EU, a weakened ability to act as a coherent geopolitical actor; for Ukraine, the halting of military supp