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Ukrainian intelligence: Russia plans provocations in Europe to blame Ukraine

rubryka.com

Ukrainian intelligence: Russia plans provocations in Europe to blame Ukraine

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russian plans include several possible scenarios. In particular, Moscow may resort to so-called false-flag operations—provocations for which responsibility will be placed on another state.

Russia could later use such incidents to discredit Ukraine. According to the Defense Intelligence, the Kremlin may use the following to spread accusations:

According to military intelligence estimates, potential target locations for provocations include critical infrastructure facilities and areas near the borders with Russia. Potential directions also include:

In addition, Russian operations could encompass specific regions of European Union member states home to Russian-speaking populations and locations hosting Kremlin-controlled facilities, particularly the network of Russian Orthodox Church sites.

According to the Defense Intelligence, such actions aim to:

Background

Rubryka previously reported that NATO has military plans and forces prepared to respond to possible escalation by Russia on the Alliance's eastern flank. In the event of an attack, allies know how to act.

These statements came against the backdrop of increasingly frequent warnings from European leaders about possible Russian escalation. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Moscow could launch a drone or missile attack against a NATO country within the coming months as part of a staged provocation to test the Alliance. France and the Netherlands subsequently raised concerns regarding similar risks.

Furthermore, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi stated that Russia has invested no less in spreading propaganda across Europe than in weapons to conduct its war against Ukraine, describing it as a large-scale, decades-long financial program.

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24 of October 2026

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