Maxim Pleshko: Lukashenko Is Only A Performer

30.10.2025, 12:22 charter97.org

Maxim Pleshko: Lukashenko Is Only A Performer428.10.2025, 15:35 8,332 Maxim PleshkoWho is behind the meteosonde attacks on Lithuania.Lithuania announced the indefinite closure of the border with Belarus after a series of incidents with weather probes, which have already caused several suspensions at Vilnius airport.What could be behind these weather probes, which massively cross the border and disrupt the work of Lithuanian airports? Can we talk about a new form of hybrid attack?About this, Charter97.org asked Maxim Pleshko, candidate of philosophical sciences, head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications:- What is happening is hardly accidental. It is a purposeful operation of hybrid pressure. Under the guise of "weather probes", cheap unmanned platforms equipped with both containers for smuggling and sensors, GPS modules can be launched. Some of them appear to be used to test air defense systems, aviation reactions, and to practice radar avoidance routes. This is a classic "probing" tactic - provocation without direct responsibility.Yes, this is a new form of attack and quite effective. In modern conditions, even a few dozen of such objects can paralyze air traffic, cause information resonance and political pressure. This is an "asymmetric" attack - cheap, but creating the effect of systemic destabilization - a kind of "air sabotage".- Lithuania has closed the border, but transit to Kaliningrad is still maintained. What could be the next step if the attacks continue? - If the attacks continue, the next step could be to limit or completely stop transit to Kaliningrad. In addition, there could be sanctions against specific Belarusian structures related to border logistics, as well as the deployment of joint surveillance systems of Lithuania, Poland and NATO.- Who, in your opinion, is behind these provocations - Minsk or Moscow? - In all likelihood, the operation is coordinated by Moscow and Minsk. For the Kremlin it is a way to test the reaction of NATO and the EU, to divert resources and create a new crisis on the eastern flank of the Alliance, to push Lithuania against Belarus, creating a picture of the "aggressive West".For Lukashenko's regime it is an opportunity to demonstrate loyalty to Moscow, to put pressure on Europe and at the same time to maintain "negative involvement". Minsk is a performer, which formally "does not violate anything", but provides a platform and technical support.- How can Europe effectively respond to such actions? - An effective response is to publicly qualify such actions as elements of hybrid aggression, and not as "incidents with weather probes". This will make it possible to activate collective security mechanisms:- strengthening airspace control;- political and economic pressure on Lukashenko's regime;- gradual closure of Belarusian transit channels.The essence of what is happening is not in the weather probes themselves - it is a test of the West's patience. Moscow and Minsk are testing how far they can go in provocations before they get a real response. And how quickly the EU recognizes this as part of hybrid aggression will determine whether a Polish or Latvian airport won't be the next target.PATREONSupport the website Write your comment 4 You can support the website Charter97.orgMULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, WarszawaIBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123SWIFT: BIGBPLPWName of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aimsYou can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.comFollow Charter97.org social media accountsFacebookYouTubeX.comvkontakteok.ruInstagramRSSTelegram