What kind of war is France expecting and how is it preparing for it
On 14 July, to mark the national Bastille Day holiday, France released its National Strategic Review (RNS 2025).
The new review paints a grim picture of the modern world and urges the nation to prepare just in case for a high-intensity war.
Read more about who poses a threat to the French, how the country plans to prepare for war and why supporting Ukraine is vital for France in the RFI article The reality of the Russian threat is unparalleled: How France is preparing for a major war.
The central scenario of RNS 2025 is "the reality of the Russian threat unprecedented for the interests of France and Europe."
The review states that "in the years to come, and by 2030, the main threat to France and Europeans is the risk of open warfare against the heart of Europe."
At the same time, the threat of a large-scale conventional war on mainland French territory is not considered likely.
"Further offensives against Ukraine, in neighbouring Moldova, in the Balkans or even against NATO Member States, to test the Alliance's cohesion, are possible. The greatest risk would be that such aggression could coincide with a major operation elsewhere in the world, diverting US forces," the document specifies.
In this context, supporting Ukraine is a top priority for Europeans: "As such, the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict is of major importance for Europe. Its future security depends on it. Continued support, particularly military support, for Ukraine therefore requires an ambitious European response. The preservation of European interests will also depend on the terms of a lasting and just peace in Ukraine, based on respect for international law."
France’s goal for 2030 is to be "rearmed, materially and morally" to "address the threat of a major conflict on the European continent and its possible consequences together with its allies."
It is noted that in the event of NATO’s involvement in a major conflict, mainland France would become "an important rear logistical base," requiring improved "civil-military" coordination among various agencies.
The new strategic review marks the end of a period of relative optimism following the end of the Cold War.
France is now returning to the logic of preparing for major war.
The new review also devotes significant attention to China, which "represents a real strategic challenge, aiming to surpass the United States as the world’s leading power by 2050."
Particular attention is paid to the interest of both Beijing and Moscow in France’s overseas territories. Plans are in place to strengthen their protection.
And for the first time, a French strategic review openly expresses concern over US politics, specifically the re-election of Donald Trump.
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