How Orbán fell into his own trap and what consequences this will have

03.07.2025, 15:53 eurointegration.com.ua

European Pravda reported on how what seemed like a routine event for Hungary – Pride – brought an unprecedented number of people to the streets and became a turning point for the current Hungarian regime.

But is this an exaggeration, wishful thinking presented as reality? After all, Viktor Orbán still retains full control of the country.

The Hungarian independent think tank Political Capital sought an answer to this question. You can read about the results of their analysis in the article: Has Orbán really suffered a defeat? A view from Hungary on the consequences of the sensational pride.

In reality, the mere fact that Budapest Pride 2025 took place was already a serious failure for Orbán’s regime.

During his annual State of the Nation address in February, Viktor Orbán confidently declared that the Pride parade would not take place this year.

Despite legislative changes and an intimidation campaign, the result was the largest Pride parade yet, which is a clear sign of the regime’s fragility.

The march, probably the largest demonstration since 2010, showed considerable strength. This is a decisive factor in Hungarian (and generally in) politics because the majority of voters tend to support whoever appears strongest.

Orbán’s main opponent – leader of the Tisza party, Péter Magyar – managed to avoid the image trap set by Fidesz, although it required some maneuvering.

TISZA leader Péter Magyar managed to avoid Fidesz’s trap, but he also had to make adjustments. However, as the Pride March approached, it became increasingly difficult for Magyar to avoid the issue.

Magyar addressed the issue before the event and acknowledged the march’s significance and success afterward.

In contrast, Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony took a risk and won. He picked up and pursued consistently. By taking on the role of organizer, Karácsony took a considerable risk, and the march’s unexpectedly large success is largely due to him.Consequently, Karácsony’s standing has improved among opposition voters and in the eyes of the international press. However, opposition parties close to the mayor are unlikely to benefit from this success.

The far-right Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) party could be another winner of the Budapest Pride.

Orbán’s Fidesz could lose significant ground in far-right circles. For decades, the governing party has maintained a symbiotic relationship with the far right. It has adopted the themes of the far right in an attempt to dominate the entire right-wing spectrum.

However, the government's failure to ban the Pride march and especially the event's professional police protection could elevate their discontent to a new level.

Although all signs have been pointing in this direction for some time, the fall of the Orbán regime does not necessarily follow from the presence of crowds or the results of opinion polls alone. This weekend’s powerful images obscure the fact that Fidesz’s core base remains intact.

Although the government's fiscal room for maneuvering is not comparable to that of 2021/2022, the nine months until the election could be enough time to win back some lost peripheral voters.

It remains to be seen how far the Orbán regime will go to retain power.

Let us not forget that massive crowds have flooded the streets of Serbia for weeks and months, yet Aleksandar Vučić remains in power to this day.

Nevertheless, the cracks in the Orbán regime will continue to widen.

The organizers and the tens or even hundreds of thousands who participated in the Pride march experienced firsthand that they can defy the power and authority of Fidesz and that their actions can have an effect. Although Pride unfolded independently of Péter Magyar, the demand for political change will most likely continue to be reflected in his electoral support.