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Ukrainian victory, responsibility of Belarus and the future of Kaliningrad: interview with Lithuanian Foreign Minister

tsn.ua

Ukrainian victory, responsibility of Belarus and the future of Kaliningrad: interview with Lithuanian Foreign Minister

Gabrielius Landsbergis jokingly says: when Ukraine wins, Lithuania will ask Kyiv to give safety guarantees. Because who if not Ukraine truly knows how to fight against Russia. TSN.ua met with the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Lithuania at the NATO summit in Madrid, where the topic of all discussions was the bloody war Russia is waging against Ukraine. Everyone understands: Russia must not win this war. But how can Russia be defeated remains an open question. Some want to avoid provoking Putin too much. And we see this currently in Germany’s case, which, according to the German publication Spiegel, has finally pushed the European Commission to send clarifications, which would allow Russia to send goods under sanctions to Kaliningrad through EU countries unopposed. TSN.ua has already written: this is due to the fact that a NATO brigade composed of German soldiers is stationed in Lithuania, and Berlin is concerned that they will be pulled into the war if Russia invaded Lithuania. Is this not what the brigade had been created for – to defeat any possible military threats? Are German soldiers in Lithuania for no reason, and is Germany itself not intending to fulfil NATO’s Article 5 about collective defence? Others, like the USA and Great Britain are promising to help Ukraine as much as will be necessary, until Kyiv defeats Russia in this war. At the same time, they are choosing to hold off on discussing Ukraine’s potential NATO membership or other security guarantees. In an interview to TSN.ua, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Lithuania Gabrielius Landsbergis discussed whether his country is prepared for a possible Russian invasion, whether he believes in a Ukrainian victory, and whether Belarus and its citizens ought to be held responsible for the killing of Ukrainians to the same extent as Russia. This interview was made within the cooperation with The Pulitzer Center on the project "NATO after Putin’s war: a chance for a new breath or the beginning of death". - We are having our conversation at the NATO summit in Madrid. And today [on the 28th of June – red.], the Minister of State for Defence of the UK Ben Wallace has stated that Russia may expand its aggression beyond the territory of Ukraine. Is this the Third World War? - The thought about the fact that we haven’t seen a conflict of such magnitude since the Second World War is in the air. So, obviously, everyone is thinking about whether this could grow into something even greater than it is now. But I do not agree with the assessment that we are effectively standing on the brink of something like the Second World War. I do not see Russia in any way as a possible aggressor against the West. I would describe Russia as a bully, which is capable of causing a lot of trouble. But at the same time, you know, when Western countries talk about a Third World War, they are themselves increasing Russia’s apparent power in their own minds. But that isn’t true. The west has ten times if not a hundred times more power, which we can use to stop Russia. We will succeed if we take this step. - However, do you believe that everyone in the EU understands that they are already at war with Russia? - You know, there are many thoughts about this. For example, if we only send Ukraine certain kinds of weapons, perhaps Putin will not be as angry, or will not behave as badly towards the West. But in any case, we must look further, because the problem does not lie here. The problem lies in the question of what world we want to live in after the war. Do we want to live in a world where Putin has “saved face”? Where he sits at some sort of discussion table [at negotiation forums – red.], where we talk to him? Or are we saying that Russia is an exile-country, which ought to be isolated until it changes from inside? So until you have answers to this question, it is possible to say that you are not at war with Russia. - When we talk about Russia – about Putin – what are their real goals in this war? - Putin’s real goals exist only in his head. My assumption, a thought I had been considering long before the war… We do not know whether he [Putin – red.] is Ill or not. This is only speculation. But we do know for certain that he isn’t getting younger. Russia is faced with the question of political succession. This is not a public process, but I am absolutely convinced that there are people who are thinking about the successor, who will take Putin’s place. This is normal for any autocracy, beginning even with the Roman empire. All dictators were replaced. They were also replaced through bloodshed [assassination, coup d’état – red.], which were normally planned by someone long before the bloodshed actually occurred. Which is why I believe that Putin thinks he needs to create a greater project, if you could call it that. And people are arguing whether to call it the 2nd Soviet Union, or even the Russian Empire. But in general, we can call it his project. So he [Putin – red.] wants his great project. And, likely, the thought of the creation of one big geo-political unit fills his head; one which could stretch from the occupied part of Georgia, a fully occupied Ukraine and perhaps even an occupied Moldova… Some have even said that Armenia may be forced to join, and we can see these signals. Belarus. And such a “modern”, if we can use the term, Russian Empire may enable him to pass his power. Because the next in line [to the Kremlin throne – red.] must convince him that the empire will be unified, and that there will be no internal war, because he will have a great project on his hands. That is my thought. What is really happening I do not know. I mean that there are many possible explanations for what is happening and why. And we will likely only be able to speculate, because we will never find out the truth. - Is there a risk that Lithuania will be next? - Recently, throughout the last couple of weeks, several Russian politicians said very openly that they are not afraid of threatening a NATO member-state. Today, it’s Lithuania. Previously, they had been threatening Poland due to its support for Ukraine. Just recently, Estonia received what I would call passive threats [on the 28th of June, due to Estonia following the EU’s decision as to the prohibition of transit of Russian goods through EU-member countries – red.]. So they are checking the West’s response and how we can respond to these threats/ Once again, is he [Putin – red.] able to wage war against NATO? I don’t think so. Can he test NATO? I would go even further and say that he would be able not only to test, but also to break NATO. - But how? Through what mechanisms? - If NATO is not able to find a sufficiently fast and potent response to show that there are certain lines he will not be allowed to cross. And we need to be very specific in this. This is already happening. This is the stage we are at now. This is the reality. - Why do you think the Kremlin is so aggressive in the Kaliningrad question? - Some have said this is because the war in Ukraine is not going so well [for Russia -red.]. Therefore he [Putin – red.] needs to shift the attention elsewhere. The sanctions have already been passed. The Fourth set of sanctions, which had created this issue to begin with, had been passed in April. All the clarifications had been given back then. And we have seen a decrease in the amount of transit, and this showed that we were preparing. So what is happening right now is only games. - Indeed, as you have already said, this was supposed to be a surprise for the Kremlin. Lithuania is enacting the sanctions which have been passed on the EU level. If we are discussing the question of the transit to Kaliningrad, Lithuania will maintain its position, right? - I must be very precise and clear. This is not Lithuania’s position. We are part of the EU, and these are European sanctions. We are therefore one country which is enacting these sanctions. And since we are a union and a country based on laws, if this is the law, we must follow it. Here lies the difference from the attempts of saying that these are Lithuania’s sanctions and that Lithuania is doing something… Each member-state of the EU must implement the sanctions which have been voted on by the European Parliament and explained by the European Commission. This is the law. So, there is nothing extraordinary in the fact that Lithuania is doing this. The only factor which puts us in this position is geography. That is what sets us apart from the others [in the EU – red.]. - That is understood. But we already see that the European Commission is preparing some clarification under pressure from Germany, which is supposed to allow Russia to transit sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad. Have you already received these documents? - We have not yet received any official clarification. So, if the European Commission sees that it needs to provide additional clarification on something, it has the right to do so. It is within their power to explain how the sanctions are to be implemented. And if they use the legal way of saying it, meaning as they do it normally… And once again, there are other countries through which transit is possible. Poland in this case. And the situation is the same. You can easily take a train from Belarus through Poland to Kaliningrad. This means that the laws apply to every country. Or you can transit through Spain – the rules remain the same. - In your opinion, is there a risk that the European Commission can make concessions to Russia with regards to the Kaliningrad transit? - They may word the sanctions differently [effectively removing Kaliningrad from the sanctions – red.]. So yes, this may happen. Such a possibility is possible. The spectrum of possibilities is very wide. They may leave the clarification which had been present since the beginning in effect. This is possible. They may also find an explanation which will… You know, I would avoid looking into this in too much
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