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Titanic For Lukashenka6ALEKSANDR KHARA 1.08.2022, 7:44 12,320 The dictator understands what an inglorious end awaits their army in Ukraine.When assessing the likelihood of Belarusian troops invading Ukraine in the coming months, it is difficult to rule out the subjective factor of Putin or Lukashenka's insanity, for they are tyrants and have surrounded themselves with people who convey the information they like.In addition, Lukashenka is not an independent player. He lost the space to manoeuvre when his hands steeped in blood of Belarusians after the illegitimate elections in Belarus. Therefore, he cannot be supported by Ukraine or Western Europe and balance.When trying to assess the likelihood of Belarusian troops' involvement in the war against Ukraine, we proceed from logical arguments: what can it bring to Belarus, whether Belarus is able to gather such a powerful force that would be a threat to Ukraine and whether the Belarusian army can achieve important military goals.If one relies on logic, the Belarusians have no place in this war.However, Belarus has been an aggressor country since February 24, as it provided its territory to Russian troops to carry out military aggression against Ukraine. From the point of view of international law and Ukrainian legislation, it makes no difference whether the Belarusians were on the territory of Ukraine with weapons in their hands or not - they are already aggressors.Whether Belarus will go to Ukraine is hard to say. The Russians would certainly like not only to scatter the Ukrainian forces. Russia realises that it cannot stop the flow of weapons, hardware and ammunition supplied to Ukraine by its Western partners without striking a blow to western Ukraine.On the other hand, the threat from Belarus appeared literally immediately, but 150 days have passed - and the Belarusians have done nothing. Belarus must have the military who can assess and predict the inglorious end that awaits them here. The fact that the Belarusian troops did not go to the Ukraine demonstrates that the Belarusian command has such an understanding. Even though the Belarusians pretend to be ready to fight, and Lukashenka constantly makes political statements designed to demonstrate that he is an ally of Russia and loyal to Putin (even though he is a subpartner who temporarily holds his position).The direct involvement of Belarusian troops in the war is a dubious goal for Lukashenka. After all, by doing so he would simply jump on the Titanic, which is hardly what he needs. Lukashenka may be a bastard, but he is a clever enough man, so he will manoeuvre to the last to avoid being dragged into this reckless undertaking.This undertaking has already backfired on Russia, and I hope it will backfire on Putin too, and he will not be able to hold on to power in the near future.That is why it is difficult to assess the probability of participation of the Belarusian troops in the war. Right now Lukashenka and the Belarusian people have more logical reasons for it not to happen. However, it may well happen that the order for the Belarusian army to enter the war will be given not by Lukashenka, but by someone else...Aleksandr Khara, Glavred
