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The Wall Street Journal writes that apparently Russia has already lost the war.
The newspaper describes 5 possible scenarios for the next phase of the war:
British intelligence believes that the command of the Russian army is now under pressure - it is required to achieve operational goals.
Therefore, Russia is likely to quickly redistribute its forces without proper training, which will lead to further depletion.
To strengthen the troops in the Donbas, Russia can transfer its forces from Mariupol. According to British intelligence, the Russian Federation is likely to do this in a hurry - without proper training of the military and repair of equipment.
Taras Kuzio is a fellow of the Henry Jackson Society and a professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. He is the author of the recently published book "Russian Nationalism and the Russian-Ukrainian War" believes :
Despite the intrusive military propaganda, the Russians are increasingly aware that the "special military operation" is facing serious difficulties. A series of unexplained fires and explosions across Russia have fueled unconfirmed rumors of Ukrainian sabotage and spetsnaz operations behind the lines, and military disasters such as the sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's flagship Moskva and Russia's recent defeat on the Donets River proved too big to be completely hide.
The grim realities of the war in Ukraine will continue to be brought to the attention of Russian audiences as Ukraine prosecutes more Russian soldiers for committing war crimes against Ukrainian civilians. While the Kremlin will continue to deny that these crimes took place, it will be impossible to completely block stories of Stalinist-style mass executions and the documented rape of more than 400 Ukrainian women from the Russian public.
Russia's crushing military losses and practical limits to possible mobilization mean that Putin's war in Ukraine is fast becoming a losing streak against an adversary that enjoys high morale and unprecedented international support. As Ukrainian forces receive new weapons from the West and continue to launch successful counterattacks, we can expect a slow but steady decline in Russian forces. This could eventually lead to a 1917-style crash as the morale of the Russian army continues to decline.
The failure of his Ukrainian adventure would have catastrophic domestic consequences for Putin personally. This will destroy the myth of the all-powerful dictator and lead to calls for dramatic political change in Russia. The exact nature of the subsequent crisis is impossible to predict, but even now it seems unlikely that Putin will remain president for life.
Der Spiegel writes that Putin seems to believe that a defeat in Ukraine will cost him his life.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said this in an interview with Polski Times:
I would like it (the war) to end with Ukraine returning all its territories within internationally recognized borders. This is very important for me, for Poland's security and for the future, because in the political sense it would mean the victory of Ukraine in the war.
