Kimi Antonelli F1 title permutations: How Mercedes driver can win 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship at Mexico City GP on Sunday

01.11.2026, 16:09 skysports.com

Kimi Antonelli was unable to seal the Formula 1 world championship at the first race where it was mathematically possible for him to do so, but the Italian has left himself with a great opportunity to make history this weekend in Mexico City.

Antonelli won the United States Grand Prix in Austin to move 123 points clear of his Mercedes team-mate and nearest challenger George Russell, and 124 points ahead of Ferrari's Lewis Hamilton.

Red Bull's Max Verstappen, Ferrari's Charles Leclerc and McLaren's Lando Norris were officially knocked out of championship contention, leaving Russell and Hamilton as the only drivers who can technically prevent Antonelli from becoming the sport's youngest ever world champion at 20 years old.

In reality, Russell and Hamilton's chances are only technical, as one of them would need to win all five remaining races and for Antonelli to fail to score two points.

There will be four scheduled races left - Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi - after the Mexico City Grand Prix takes place this Sunday and a maximum of 100 points left to play for.

To win the title in Mexico City, Antonelli simply needs to score two points, or not be outscored by Russell by 24 points and Hamilton by 25 points.

The permutations for Antonelli to become champion in Mexico City are:

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Mercedes will also have a first mathematical chance to clinch the Constructors' Championship in Mexico - but securing that title next time out is a very tall order.

They lead Ferrari by 133 points in the standings and there will be 172 points left to play for after this Sunday's race.

To become champions in Mexico, they would need to outscore Ferrari by 39 points. This would require Antonelli or Russell winning the Grand Prix, with the other driver in second or third, plus a disastrous race for both Ferrari drivers.

The Silver Arrows' first realistic chance to wrap things up will therefore likely come at next week's Sao Paulo Grand Prix when they would only need to finish the Interlagos event 129 points ahead, four fewer than now.

However, Ferrari have outscored them at each of the last three race weekends.

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Saturday October 315.15pm: Mexico City Grand Prix Practice Three (session starts at 6.30pm)8pm: Mexico City Grand Prix Qualifying build-up9pm: MEXICO CITY GRAND PRIX QUALIFYING11pm: Ted's Qualifying Notebook

Sunday November 16.30pm: Grand Prix Sunday: Mexico City GP build-up8pm: THE MEXICO CITY GRAND PRIX*10pm: Chequered Flag: Mexico City GP reaction11pm: Ted's Notebook

*also on Sky Sports Main Event

Formula 1 is in Mexico City where Kimi Antonelli could win the Drivers' Championship in Sunday's race at 8pm (build-up from 6.30pm), live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime