United States GP: How likely is pole-sitter Kimi Antonelli to win 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship on Sunday in Austin?

25.10.2026, 09:56 skysports.com

Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff believes it is "not realistic" for Kimi Antonelli to win the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship on Sunday at the United States Grand Prix, despite the Italian starting on pole position.

Antonelli was not expected to claim top spot in qualifying but produced a superb lap in Q3 to beat Red Bull's Max Verstappen and take his first pole since July's Belgian Grand Prix.

Should Antonelli win Sunday's race in Austin with Lewis Hamilton finishing fifth or lower and George Russell no better than ninth, he will seal the title with five rounds remaining.

Hamilton will start fifth and Russell sixth when the lights go out at the Circuit of the Americas at 8pm (build-up from 6.30pm), live on Sky Sports F1 and Main Event.

However, Wolff has warned Mercedes will not have the pace to win as they did not have the pace in Friday practice's long runs.

"We are not talking about that [the championship]. It's not realistic," he told Sky Sports F1.

"I don't think we are quickest in the race, so it's about scoring points and eventually, hopefully, winning."

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Antonelli is also wary of Red Bull's race pace and the possibility that Verstappen in second and Isack Hadjar in third can also work together.

He admits this week has been "a bit different", knowing it is the first opportunity to become the sport's youngest world champion at 20 years old.

"The goal stays the same. I just need to keep doing my job, and actually, I feel like I can enjoy the driving and everything more," said Antonelli.

"But of course, we still have to do the race, still have to try and win, and then, of course, we'll see what happens. But, I feel like I can enjoy it a bit more because obviously I'm in a very good position. But still, the mindset is always the same."

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The uphill run towards the wide Turn 1 at the start provides a good opportunity for the driver in second to steam up the inside of the pole-sitter, something Verstappen may look to do if he has a strong getaway.

Verstappen, who has won the last two races, effectively has nothing to lose but suggested he will not be excessively aggressive against championship leader Antonelli.

"Kimi wants to go for the win right? That helps his position in the championship," he told Sky Sports F1.

"We keep it respectful and try to win the race."

1) Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes2) Max Verstappen, Red Bull3) Isack Hadjar, Red Bull4) Charles Leclerc, Ferrari5) Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari6) George Russell, Mercedes7) Oscar Piastri, McLaren8) Lando Norris, McLaren9) Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls10) Pierre Gasly, Alpine

Tyre degradation was high in Friday's practice sessions in Austin but that has been the case at several races this season, only for the Grand Prix to turn into a one-stop race as the teams have changed the setup on their cars and the track has gripped up over the weekend.

Nevertheless, overtaking is possible and Verstappen cut a quietly confident figure to make it a hat-trick of wins and deny any chance Antonelli has of winning the title on Sunday.

"We have been happier in the long runs, and I hope that it will be the same tomorrow," he said.

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As for Russell, it has been another tricky weekend and he faces a big challenge to overtake Ferrari's Hamilton and Charles Leclerc in front of him, who have both been quick in practice, to get into the podium fight.

Russell has been unable to get to grips with Mercedes' new upgrade package but admits he simply just did "two bad laps in Q3".

"I think I could have been in the top three. My Q2 lap was two and a half tenths quicker than what I achieved in Q3 but that obviously isn't good enough from my side," he told Sky Sports F1.

Asked about his race prospects, he said: "I think it's a long race, a lot happens here in Austin. Strategy plays a role so still opportunities."

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Sunday October 255pm: F1 Academy Race 36.30pm: Grand Prix Sunday: United States GP build-up*8pm: THE UNITED STATES GRAND PRIX*10pm: Chequered Flag: United States GP reaction11pm: Ted's Notebook

*also on Sky Sports Main Event

Formula 1 heads to The Americas for another triple-header with the United States Grand Prix in Austin up first this weekend, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime