Ballon d'Or odds: Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Rodri all in race to be named world's best in 2026

20.07.2026, 18:00 skysports.com

The biggest individual prize in football has many variables. Often the Ballon d'Or race is dictated by those players who have spearheaded their club sides, or national teams, to trophies.

Ousmane Dembele got his hands on last year's prize after leading PSG to their first Champions League title.

This year is different, though. The World Cup holds influence and power unlike any club competition is able to. It sways opinion with a greater degree of certainty. And this, a World Cup of superstars, served up plenty of compelling cases.

So, who put their best feet forward and whose argument was damaged over the course of a long, hot summer for most of the world's best?

Harry Kane lifted more silverware at club level this year, his 61 goals in 51 outings proving unstoppable as Bayern Munich romped to a domestic double. Such form had England fans dizzy with hope and expectation.

But as England's bid tapered off earlier than pre-tournament possibilities suggested, so too did Kane's ability to rise above in the crucial moments. Of course England's failure to pick off a beatable Argentina team was not solely Kane's fault. Thomas Tuchel hardly helped his captain's cause.

But the 32-year-old's individual performance dropped in England's final two outings, eclipsed by a rousing Jude Bellingham. Kane ended the tournament with six goals but could not steer his side to the final. That is the only reward he believes really matters in the end.

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Given Kane's career-best club pursuits, this summer is perhaps best categorised by disappointment over the No 9's world-class talent, left without a World Cup final stage to showcase it. Nevertheless, he remains among the favourites for the second-best scoring season by any player since the turn of the millennium (73 goals).

Barcelona's teen sensation is another frontrunner. Lamine Yamal became the first player to have played in both a Euros final and a World Cup showpiece before the age of 20 on Sunday. He won both.

His influence this summer was more understated than pre-tournament hype suggested, just one goal, but he still made a considerable contribution. Twelve straight major tournament wins in succession.

The penalty he won against France in the semi-final was game-changing. His unique manipulation of the ball in the final tournament-defining. As England found out the hard way, breaking lines against Argentina's tough tacklers is not easy. He was the one who made it possible for Spain, finishing the tournament with more successful take-ons than Lionel Messi.

Delivering 28 goal involvements as Barcelona won LaLiga will do his chances no harm, either. If not this year, his time will come soon enough.

Messi is the most successful player in Ballon d'Or history after claiming the prize a remarkable seven times. His performances this summer put him in line for an extraordinary eighth.

Despite being beaten to the Golden Boot by Kylian Mbappe - rather farcically, given two of the Frenchman's goals were scored in a dead rubber third-place play-off - Messi moved and mesmerised as if in his peak 20s in a summer when celebrated his 39th birthday.

In terms of numbers, his World Cup has been an exceptional triumph. His hat-trick in Argentina's opening game against Algeria set the tone. He scored in the next four games, too, before playing a fundamental part in England's semi-final fall.

Only four of the past 19 Ballon d'Or wins have gone to a player who did not claim a Champions League, World Cup, Euros or Copa America title in the same year. Three of those were Messi. Perhaps one last celebration of his greatness is the best way to indulge all that he has offered the beautiful game. A peerless pioneer.

Kylian Mbappe is the first player to win the World Cup Golden Boot twice. The France captain deserves huge credit for that, and should of course be celebrated for becoming the World Cup's all-time leading scorer, too.

But, often, individuality without silverware is not what draws the top prize. As Mbappe himself acknowledged: "I would have preferred not to be the top scorer and to have played in the final". Those kinds of records only really look good alongside a winner's medal to validate the contribution.

Given Real Madrid also endured a trophylesss campaign, Mbappe's wait for a Ballon d'Or might yet go on. His elite scoring ability will no doubt ensure he stays in contention for many years to come, though.

2024's Ballon d'Or winner, a non-runner before this summer, has suddenly emerged as a contender. With sound reason.

Rodri's club campaign may have been stop-start because of needing to manage minutes after the ACL injury that ruled him out of the majority of the season prior, but he has risen to prominence once again for Spain over the past six weeks. He is the immoveable object.

Only four different men's players have won the World Cup, Euros, Champions League and Ballon d'Or. He is one of them; drawing comparisons with Spain greats for his controlling influence. A tournament defined by Spain's supreme authority.

Rodri made 122 line-breaking passes in his eight appearances, the most since Xabi Alonso in 2010, on his way to winning the Golden Ball. Numbers even Xavi and Andres Iniesta would be proud of.

The 70th edition of the prestigious award ceremony will take place on October 26, in London. 2025's top winners include Aitana Bonmati of Barcelona and Ousmane Dembele of PSG.

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