Premier League predictions & Jones Knows' best bets: Nottingham Forest vs Man City, Man Utd vs Aston Villa and more!

05.11.2026, 20:30 skysports.com

Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight across the Premier League weekend.

There is something about Friday Night Football that seems to bring the goals out in the Premier League. Perhaps it is the occasion, perhaps it is the freedom that comes with being the only game on the schedule, but the numbers make for compelling reading if you are looking for an entertaining evening.

Across the last 17 Friday Night Football fixtures, games have averaged a whopping 3.76 goals per match. That is almost a full goal per game above the usual league average, while 12 of those 17 encounters have seen over 2.5 goals land.

That is a trend worth respecting, particularly when the price is 10/11 for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score with Sky Bet here.

It is a more attractive proposition than simply backing the overs at the shorter price. We need three goals and both sides to contribute, but the Friday night data suggests these fixtures have been delivering plenty of entertainment.

There is a decent chance referee John Brooks will be reaching for his pocket at Elland Road.

Brooks is one of the busiest officials with his cards in the Premier League. Since the start of last season, no referee has given more penalties or shown more red cards, while only Stuart Attwell has averaged more bookings per 90 minutes. Brooks is dishing out 4.75 cards per game. That's a healthy starting point for an over 4.5 cards bet which can be backed here at 5/6 with Sky Bet.

The kick-off time adds another layer of appeal. The last 17 Premier League matches to start at 12.30pm on a Saturday have averaged 4.8 cards per game, with six of the last seven clearing this line. It's another trend worth respecting, particularly when the man in charge has such a strong appetite for disciplinary action.

At 5/6 with Sky Bet, over 4.5 cards looks a price worth taking.

There is little point trying to get Arsenal beat at 1/7 with Sky Bet. Mikel Arteta's side have become so reliable at grinding out Premier League wins that looking elsewhere for a betting angle makes far more sense.

Hull's disciplinary record offers one. Sergej Jakirovic's side are not shy about making games uncomfortable for their opponents, often surrendering possession and trying to disrupt the rhythm of the opposition. That approach can come at a cost when it comes to bookings.

Since Jakirovic took charge, Hull have averaged exactly three cards per away game across all competitions. Their Premier League average is only marginally lower at 2.8 per match. Those are numbers that make the 8/5 available with Sky Bet for Hull to be shown over 2.5 cards look rather appealing.

They are unlikely to enjoy much of the ball at the Emirates, so expect plenty of chasing, tackling and attempts to break up Arsenal's slick passing patterns. If Hull are to get anything from this game, they have to make it ugly.

If there's an edge in a market, don't be afraid to keep backing it until the bookmakers finally catch up and price it correctly. That's the approach with Calvin Bassey's foul involvement lines, and, after landing last weekend, there's no reason to jump off the train yet.

The Fulham defender is playing with real adventure from centre-back. He's getting through more passes, covering more ground and, crucially for this bet, showing greater aggression when defending one against one.

That all feeds into the probability of Bassey being involved in fouls, whether winning them or conceding them.

At 5/6 with Sky Bet for Bassey to record 3+ foul involvements, I'm happy to stick with the trend that won last week.

The evidence is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, with this line now landing in each of his last five matches. Until the price is cut to reflect his true probability, there's no need to desert a winning angle.

There is a very good case for opposing Manchester City. The timing of this fixture plays a huge part.

This particular gameweek, the final one before the November international break, carries a big warning sign for anyone looking to follow the formbook.

For the likes of Manchester City, this is their ninth game in the last month. That comes on the back of an exhausting international break in which plenty of players were asked to play four times in 10 days. Eventually, the pressure valve has to hit the red zone. Fatigue creeps in, sharpness drops and performances can suffer.

History suggests this is a gameweek when strange results are more likely than the market expects. City themselves lost 2-1 at home to Brentford in 2022/23, when the Bees were 20/1. Chelsea were held at home by Burnley in 2021/22 despite being priced at 1/7 to win, while Ipswich beat Tottenham at 8/1 in 2024/25 and Sunderland drew 2-2 with Arsenal last season when they were 1/3.

The numbers back up the theory. Blindly backing every odds-on favourite in this particular pre-break gameweek across the last five seasons would have lost 3.4 units. That is a nasty little trend for short-priced favourites to carry into the weekend.

Nottingham Forest are worth a swing at 7/2 with Sky Bet. They are due a bit of variance in their favour with the expected points table showing they should have picked up nine points more than they've got. Oliver Glasner will get them winning. And it could start here.

Can beating Manchester City away from home actually be a curse?

There is a curious trend developing with the last five teams outside of Arsenal and Liverpool to win a Premier League game at the Etihad all failing to win their next fixture. Brighton now have to navigate that potential banana skin against a Brentford side who are proving remarkably reliable in front of goal.

Keith Andrews' team are the only side to have scored in all nine Premier League games this season, finding the net 16 times. Stretch that record across the summer break and Brentford have now scored in 11 consecutive league matches. Their attacking consistency makes them an awkward opponent for a Brighton side who may still be riding the emotional high of their Etihad triumph and feeling a bit of fatigue from their European adventures.

I'm not convinced Brighton deserve to be as short as they are in the match odds. Brentford have enough attacking threat to hurt them. Combine Brentford double chance and both teams to score at 6/4 with Sky Bet.

Crystal Palace have shipped 21 goals in nine Premier League games this season - the most the club have conceded at this stage of a top-flight campaign. Pierre Sage has inherited a defensive problem that doesn't look particularly easy to fix and that makes the Liverpool goalscorer market an interesting place to look for value.

Alexis Mac Allister stands out at 7/2 with Sky Bet to score anytime. His Premier League goal drought stretches back to February 28 against West Ham, but I'm not convinced that's a reason to swerve him. In fact, the signs suggest a goal is getting closer.

Mac Allister has been making increasingly dangerous runs into the box and getting himself into positions where chances are falling his way. He's also scored four times in cup competitions this season, while his recent shot volume is particularly encouraging - 12 attempts across his last four matches.

He's getting into the right areas. Against a Palace defence that has been leaking goals at an alarming rate, 7/2 looks a generous price to back to see that drought finally come to an end.

Sometimes the best way to find a player card bet is to look at the opponent rather than the player himself. That's certainly the case with Dara O'Shea at 9/2 with Sky Bet to be booked.

Evanilson is becoming an increasingly dangerous Premier League striker but he's also a master at getting defenders into trouble. Across his Premier League career, he has been responsible for drawing 29 yellow cards from opponents. That's a booking drawn every 200 minutes of action - an elite ratio.

It's a particularly useful trait when assessing O'Shea's chances of seeing yellow. The Ipswich defender is likely to have to deal with Evanilson's movement, physicality and ability to force defenders into awkward challenges.

At 9/2 we're getting a big enough price to take a chance on the opponent's card-drawing ability doing the damage.

This might be exactly what Sunderland need to get their season rolling in the right direction.

A home game against one of the Premier League's big hitters, where they can embrace the underdog role and make life uncomfortable for a Chelsea side who still have question marks over their consistency when a game becomes tough.

The Stadium of Light remains one of the toughest places to visit. Since promotion, Sunderland have conceded just 1.04 goals per game on home soil, while producing some huge performances when the occasion has demanded it. Newcastle have been beaten, Arsenal and Manchester City have been held, and there was that memorable 2-1 victory over Chelsea on the final day of last season.

Sunderland have shown they can raise their level against the division's elite, particularly in front of their own supporters.

Chelsea are rightly favourites but, at 5/2 with Sky Bet, I'm happy to take a swing on Sunderland.

Unai Emery clearly sees something special in Johan Manzambi, handing him a prominent role at Aston Villa and the early signs suggest he could make a serious splash this season.

The numbers are already eye-catching. Manzambi has delivered a goal or assist every 81 minutes in the Premier League this season. Backing him to score or assist has landed in all six league games he has started (including super sub concession). That's a pretty compelling return for a player still finding his feet at this level.

His developing partnership with Nicolas Jackson is particularly exciting. There's a nice understanding emerging between the pair, while Manzambi's wider numbers suggest this isn't simply a purple patch. He averaged a goal involvement every other game for club and country last season.

And the scary thing for opponents? He's