Premier League predictions & Jones Knows' best bets: Leeds vs Manchester United and more

17.10.2026, 20:25 skysports.com

Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action.

Bournemouth and Sunderland have managed just one win between them across their six matches this season. That sort of start can change the psychology of a football match. Confidence becomes fragile and avoiding defeat can feel more important than chasing victory.

That makes under 2.5 goals at Evens an interesting proposition with Sky Bet.

Bournemouth's historical goal numbers might tempt you towards another open, entertaining contest. Across their last 50 matches, the average total has been 3.1 goals per game. But I would be wary of leaning too heavily on that data in this spot.

After shipping five goals in a single game at Chelsea, it is only natural for a team to take stock. Defensive security can become the priority.

That is where the draw becomes an interesting possibility which rows alongside a low-scoring game. Neither side has done enough so far to inspire complete confidence and a cagey contest in which both teams are reluctant to play too risky would hardly be a surprise.

Pascal Gross has been one of the Premier League's outstanding performers this season. He is the player who makes Brighton tick. But he carries a serious goal threat, too.

Four goals already this season underlines that point. Add the fact he is on penalties and there are multiple routes to a goal.

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The market appears to be anticipating a comfortable win for Brighton with their expected goal output approaching three. That creates an interesting opportunity in the player goalscorer markets. If Brighton are expected to score freely, why are we being offered 7/2 with Sky Bet about one of their most influential players finding the net? That feels large.

Gross has the technical quality to arrive in dangerous positions, the composure to finish chances and the added advantage of penalty-taking duties. In a fixture where Brighton are expected to create plenty, those qualities make him an appealing candidate to get on the scoresheet.

It doesn't exactly take a Tony Bloom-like figure to work out that Leeds are a bet at these prices with 13/10 being offered by Sky Bet.

Sometimes the noise surrounding Manchester United can become so deafening that it distorts the betting market but the chaos at Old Trafford right now makes the odds-against price about a Leeds victory particularly appealing.

This is a nightmare fixture for a United side who look fragile, disjointed and incapable of dealing with opponents who bring relentless intensity.

Leeds will make this an uncomfortable afternoon where turning the atmosphere at Elland Road makes home advantage key. United have shown this season that they struggle when opponents take the game to them physically and emotionally.

Leeds have collected 45 points from 31 Premier League games since the start of December 2025 - a tally bettered by only five teams.

Their home form is even more persuasive. Leeds have taken 29 points on their own patch over the same period. Only Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United have collected more.

In what is the same old story, the market appears to be giving Manchester United too much credit for their name and not enough weight to their current shortcomings.

Back Leeds to bring the intensity and take the points.

Arsenal remain one of the Premier League's elite defensive sides but there are signs that the absence of William Saliba is having a marginal impact on their ability to shut teams out.

It is a subtle shift rather than a dramatic decline, yet subtle shifts matter when the market continues to price a defence as though it is operating at its absolute best.

With Gabriel and Saliba paired together, Arsenal have averaged just 0.65 expected goals against per game. This season, that figure has risen to 0.9. It is hardly a collapse in defensive standards but it is a meaningful increase.

Arsenal have conceded five goals across their last four Premier League games, too.

It does suggest there may be more opportunities for opponents to find a breakthrough than the market assumes.

Nottingham Forest are an interesting opponent in that regard. Their recent attacking performances have deserved more reward with Forest averaging 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes. That is a healthy level of chance creation and it suggests their goal threat is stronger than their actual returns might indicate.

At 10/11 with Sky Bet, both teams to score is the play. Arsenal remain formidable but their defensive numbers have edged in the wrong direction while Forest are creating enough chances to suggest a goal is coming.

There is a disciplinary angle worth following with Roberto De Zerbi's attacking approach creating the conditions for opponents to find themselves making fouls and being shown cards.

Since De Zerbi took charge, opposition teams have averaged 2.3 cards per 90 minutes against Spurs. That is an interesting trend particularly when you consider the type of wide players Tottenham have. Savio and Mohamed Kudus are dangerous one-vs-one operators who thrive on committing defenders.

Savio has drawn a card every 154 minutes of Premier League action in his career while Kudus won 21 bookings off the opposition in his final season at West Ham, ranking third for cards drawn per game that campaign of all Premier League players to have played more than 1,000 minutes.

Coventry full-back Milan van Ewijk is in the firing line then.

Van Ewijk has already been booked twice this season, giving us some evidence that he is not immune to getting stuck in.

At 7/2 with Sky Bet, the price offers an appealing return for a player who could be under sustained pressure.

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