Contender flaws: Biggest issues for top teams

17.04.2026, 19:11 espn.com

The 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs are upon us, and more so than in years prior, the playoff format is under fire from fans.

The Central and Atlantic Division teams remain the "teams being penalized for being too good." We have all marked the Dallas Stars-Minnesota Wild series down as the best of the first round, but it's a shame that two of the top seven teams in the NHL should be playing each other right off the bat.

Meanwhile, the winner of the Pacific Division might finish with fewer points than the Washington Capitals, who didn't qualify for the playoffs in the East. So, the biggest flaw of the playoffs in general might be the seeding system.

Drilling down to the team level, every team that makes the postseason has a chance to win it all, but not every team is a true contender. This year, there are some teams that grossly outperformed preseason expectations -- looking at you, Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres. They were significant beneficiaries from teams that fell off a cliff -- looking at you, back-to-back Cup champion Florida Panthers and reigning Atlantic Division champion Toronto Maple Leafs. Can teams like the Pens and Sabres continue to overperform expectations? Or will the clock strike midnight on their Cinderella seasons?

Every team has a fatal flaw -- an issue that is likely to be its undoing. The team that best mitigates its fatal flaw -- and gets some luck -- is likely to lift the Stanley Cup. Given how wide open the field is this year, it feels like 13 or 14 teams can make a run to the Cup Final. Obviously, only two will get there, so here's a look at a weakness for each team set to begin its postseason journey this weekend.

Jump to a team:ANA | BOS | BUF | CARCOL | DAL | EDM | LAMIN | MTL | OTT | PHIPIT | TB | UTA | VGK

Stop me if you've heard this before: Carolina could be undone this postseason by faulty goaltending and an inability to produce offense at critical times.

The Canes have been the model of consistency for more than half a decade. Under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, Carolina has won at least one playoff series every year. There are fan bases that would give anything for that. (See: Buffalo.)

However, the Canes have failed to make a Stanley Cup Final because, consistently, their goal scoring gets colder as the weather gets warmer. This season, the Canes have scored more goals than they have in any regular season in their history, but their finishing ability ranks near the bottom of the league. The Canes' pace of play ranks third in the NHL, with the expected goal share ranking first, according to Betalytics.

Given that pace of play, they'll likely need to average more than three goals per game, while giving up less than 2.5. Teams with the most success score ~0.6 more goals per game than they give up. The Canes' regular-season mark hovers in that area, which is a positive sign over last season's performance. If they can sort out their finishing woes and this goal differential holds, they have a better chance to reach the conference finals and beyond.

Hands up if you thought the Penguins were going to the playoffs this year. No one? Thought so. The Penguins were penciled in for the draft lottery this season -- not for second in the Metro Division. But this season has seen players overperforming their previous outputs and Hall of Famers performing at levels that are closer to their primes than the back nine of their careers.

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Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin? Over a point-per-game pace. Erik Karlsson, nearly 0.9 points per game. Kris Letang, playing passable defense and a key member of a top-10 penalty kill unit. The Penguins are one of the best offensive teams in the NHL, creating scoring chances throughout their lineup and capitalizing on them.

However, the Penguins' defensive play is not strong. Given that their first-round opponent is cross-state rival Philadelphia -- which has been an excellent defensive team down the stretch -- and their second-round opponent would likely be Carolina, which is the most overwhelming shot-volume team -- that could be problematic.

The ability to lock it down in the playoffs has been critical to success. Philly can do it, and now it has young offensive legs to take advantage of scoring opportunities. The Penguins might struggle to create against the Flyers and might not have the defensive capability in a tight, low-scoring series. Should they beat Philly, the Canes' ability to overwhelm opponents with their shot volume might be too much for an aging defense core that is not particularly staunch.

The Flyers skyrocketed up the standings since the NHL's return from the Olympics on the back of some excellent defensive play. An 18-6-1 record in their past 25 games makes them one of the top teams in the league heading into the playoffs.

Philly is dedicated to strong defense, preventing scoring chances and being a general nightmare to play against. The team lacked scoring punch, but the addition of Porter Martone after he signed on March 29 has changed things. He has come in on the top line, found chemistry, driven offense and allowed everyone else to slot into positions that are better suited to their capabilities. Defense wins championships, and if the Flyers continue to play staunch defensive hockey and get offensive contributions from their young players, they can make a run.

The biggest roadblock is not the lack of offense anymore. Playoff success requires elite special teams. The Flyers' special teams are the worst of the playoff field. Their power play finished dead last in the entire league, at 15.7%, and their penalty kill ranked in the bottom 10, at 77.6%. Underperforming on either of those in the playoffs has sunk teams before; it would be unheard of for a team to make a run with both units struggling.

The Flyers are good enough to win their series against the Penguins, but without improved special teams, they will find themselves in trouble.

There is no team buoyed by vibes more than the Sabres -- and the vibes have not been this high in Buffalo for nearly 20 years.

Outside of vibes, the Sabres' journey back to the playoffs has been due to one of the luckiest runs in years: far better goaltending than expected, more short-handed goals than all but two teams, and overperforming on both sides of the expected goals ledger. That is the type of luck that can power a team to a Stanley Cup win.

Make no mistake, the Sabres are very much the Cinderella of the NHL this year. They are the story everyone loves, the team many outside fans root for, the improbable run to overcome tremendous mental obstacles, and the team that overperforms any expectations. Some picked the Sabres to make the playoffs; they didn't pick them to win the division or make a Cup run.

But the thing about Cinderella is, the clock always strikes midnight. Can the Sabres stave off a goaltending fall back to Earth, a power play that does not produce, or finishing that dries up when scoring chances are more difficult to come by? If they can, the glass slipper might fit. But the moment things start to falter, it will likely be the end of one of the most magical seasons in Sabres history.

The Lightning are one the most well-coached teams in the NHL and arguably the best-coached team over the past decade. Year after year, we await the fall of the Lightning -- and Jon Cooper keeps laughing at us. They most certainly will not be outcoached this spring.

However, the veteran-laden Lightning are another year older and are battling some significant injuries. Given the younger teams they are likely to face during their playoff run (Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa), that attrition is most likely to be their undoing.

Let's face it: Andrei Vasilevskiy is once again among the Vezina Trophy contenders this season, so he is unlikely to be outplayed by any of the goaltenders in the Atlantic Division outside of potentially Jeremy Swayman. Nikita Kucherov is in Hart Trophy form and turns up the nasty in the playoffs. He's unlikely to be outplayed by anyone in the Eastern Conference, period.

There is no playoff team in the East that comes close to Tampa Bay's winning résumé. The Lightning are unlikely to be outfoxed by a younger, inexperienced team. But Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel and Darren Raddysh are key players who have been battling injuries of various severity. They are critical components of success for Tampa Bay, and this team does not have the same depth it did years ago. The Lightning cannot afford to be without those players. If they are, that might be too much even for the elite talent and coaching to overcome.

There is nothing like a Saturday night playoff game in Montreal. There is no atmosphere that measures up to the one created in Montreal when the Canadiens are in the playoffs. Whether the Habs are built for playoff success is another conversation entirely.

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If I had a dollar for every time I've heard someone say you have to be big to succeed in the playoffs, I would own an NHL team. To some degree, that is true. Many of hockey's smaller players get pushed out in the playoffs when the games get meaner. And given that two of Montreal's brightest stars are very small by any NHL average, that might pose a problem.

Cole Caufield reached the 50-goal mark this season and scored around 18 goals above expected. Although it is unwise to doubt players of that skill level, it would not be the first time a player who overperformed his metrics in the regular season fell back to Earth in the playoffs.

Lane Hutson is a Norris Trophy contender after winning the Calder last season, but we have yet to see how he fares when every forechecker is finishing their check and trying to run him through the boards into the third row. Will he still have the confidence to make the plays he does? Can he withstand or escape the p