👀 Are the Spurs actually a contender?

06.11.2025, 05:40 espn.com

Two of the prospective contenders in the East are flailing, while two in the West are scorching hot. Meanwhile, an important awards race has already turned upside-down.

The 2025-26 NBA season is a mere two weeks old, but that's a perfect time to start diving into the most important numbers and narratives surrounding these early surprises.

ESPN national analysts Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton debate the biggest early-season questions about Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, Trae Young, Austin Reaves, Cooper Flagg and more.

Pelton: The Spurs appear to be the young team that is taking the leap. Starting with an opening-night drubbing of the Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio started 5-0 for the first time in franchise history, and Victor Wembanyama rates as the league's second-best player on a per-possession basis in my wins above replacement player metric.

The caveat here is the schedule. Thursday's showdown with the fast-starting Miami Heat was the Spurs' first matchup against a 2025 playoff team, and they won't face an opponent who won more than a single playoff game last spring until their NBA Cup group opener against the Houston Rockets next Friday. Do you buy San Antonio's start, Zach, or do you need to see them beat somebody their own size? (Which might not be anybody, in Wemby's case.)

Kram: The simplest answer is that as long as Wembanyama continues to play like an MVP candidate, the Spurs' ceiling is as tall as he is. His PER through six games is 30.7. Before this season, there were 35 instances in NBA history in which a player posted a player efficiency rating above 30, and on average, their teams won 53.5 games.

But the NBA's talent pool is so deep now that one transcendent star isn't always sufficient to propel a team to the top of the standings. Those 35 instances include recent examples in which the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook were stuck in the middle of the standings despite tremendous individual seasons.

That possibility remains likely for the Spurs, as the quality of the supporting cast surrounding Wembanyama remains unclear. Reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle is averaging 20 points per game on increased efficiency while supplying excellent defense. But guards De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are both hurt, as are Luke Kornet, Kelly Olynyk and Jeremy Sochan in the frontcourt.

San Antonio's second-ranked defense looks real: Led by Defensive Player of the Year favorite Wembanyama, the Spurs are allowing the second-fewest points in the paint, and they should get better opponent shooting luck as the season continues. Spurs opponents rank third in the NBA with a 39% mark from 3-point range.

But I'm more skeptical of their ninth-ranked offense, at least until Fox returns and we see the Spurs' sets and rotations with a ball-dominant All-Star at the point.

Pelton: I think that stat about 30+ PER seasons is worth investigating. There are a couple of reasons that kind of individual production is less meaningful now. First, even though PER is pegged to a consistent average of 15, heliocentric offenses mean we're seeing more players than ever top that mark.

Between 1963-64 and Michael Jordan's retirement from the Chicago Bulls in 1998, David Robinson was the only other player to top a 30 PER while qualifying for NBA per-game leaderboards according to Sports-Reference.com. (Jordan did it four times.) Meanwhile, three players did so in both 2021-22 and 2024-25. Antetokounmpo and Jokic were part of both groups, rounded out by first Joel Embiid and then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

So the bar is easier to clear now. Beyond that, players with a 30-plus PER through LeBron James in 2012-13 averaged 40.1 minutes per team game. Since then, because of increasing injuries, decreasing minutes averages and load management, players with 30-plus PERs average just 34.0 minutes per team game. So yes, a single star is less meaningful in wins and losses terms than it once was.

Kram: The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic meet in Atlanta on Tuesday night, in a rematch of a 111-107 Hawks victory in October, and both teams could use a win. The Southeast Division foes had high hopes entering the season as young teams on the rise in an Eastern Conference in flux; they ranked third and fourth in the East in ESPN's preseason rankings.

But after two weeks of games, both the Hawks and Magic look farther away from contention than they did last season, when both appeared in the play-in tournament. The Hawks have suffered from key absences and are 3-4 with a minus-2.9 net rating, while the 3-4 Magic rank 22nd in offensive rating and 30th in 3-point makes despite the addition of Desmond Bane.

Kevin, which ostensible contender do you believe has the best chance to bounce back and climb the still-wide-open Eastern Conference standings?

Pelton: When we first conceived this topic back in September, the idea was that we disagreed on which of Atlanta and Orlando would be the rising force in the East. (Zach liked the Hawks, while I was a Magic believer.) Now it's looking like we might both be wrong?

I still think Orlando can right the ship. The Magic's biggest issue during their 1-4 start was getting outshot on a nightly basis, and GeniusIQ's quantified shot probability metric -- which estimates the effective field-goal percentage we should expect based on the location and type of shot, and distance to nearby defenders -- says they've been taking better shots than their opponents, when accounting for player ability.

Bane, a 41% career 3-point shooter, won't keep hitting 26% and Tyus Jones will shoot better than an effective 42% when accounting for the added value of 3s (he was at 57% eFG% the past two seasons). Am I wrong to keep the Orlando faith?

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Kram: Even beyond better shooting, faith in the Magic requires a strong belief in Banchero as a true superstar and No. 1 option. He looks the part, and his surface stats have always been strong. But what does it say when the Magic have been better with Banchero off the court in every season of his career?

This isn't a matter of shooting luck or substitution patterns; this is a consistent pattern in an increasingly large sample of minutes. According to PBP Stats, when Banchero has played without Franz Wagner in their careers, the Magic have a minus-7.7 net rating. But the Magic thrive when Wagner plays without Banchero, with a plus-7.0 net rating.

Advanced stats that incorporate on/off data conclude that Banchero is merely average overall, rather than an All-NBA candidate in waiting. I don't think Orlando can grab a top seed if that's the case.

Pelton: It says that Wagner is a secret superstar, naturally! More seriously, picking the Magic to contend in the East was premised on more shooting unlocking higher-quality shots for Banchero. According to the player-neutral version of GeniusIQ's metrics, quantified shot quality, just 27% of players who attempted at least 750 shots last year took more difficult ones than Banchero.

Yet Banchero's shot quality has barely improved in the early going, and his playmaking is down. He's averaging just 7.7 potential assists per game, according to NBA Advanced Stats, down from 9.4 last year. It's up to Orlando's coaching staff to generate more ball movement for the benefit of Banchero and everyone else.

Thus far, we've focused on the Magic, but what do you make of Atlanta's slow start after a much-hyped offseason?

Kram: The biggest concern in Atlanta is health. I still believe in this team at full strength: Trae Young makes for an efficient offense all by himself, and his teammates are all good-to-great defenders who can compensate for his deficiency on that end of the floor.

Unfortunately, the Hawks have scarcely been at full strength this season, and won't for a while longer. Dyson Daniels is the only starter who hasn't already missed time this season, and Young is out for at least a month after spraining his right knee last week. Those absences have exposed the Hawks' shallow roster, whose quality drops off dramatically after the top seven or eight players. (At least Mouhamed Gueye looks like a potential impact player off the bench.)

To illustrate this challenge, the Hawks' top three players -- Young, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis -- have shared the court for just 42 minutes this year. In contrast, Orlando's Banchero-Wagner-Bane trio has 144 minutes together.

Granted, those 42 minutes haven't gone great, as the Hawks' rebuilt roster is clearly learning to play together, and their 25th-ranked offense is in particular trouble during Young's long-term absence. But I think their ceiling remains high, if only they can all get healthy and gain some familiarity and continuity before the postseason.

Kram: Another team sitting comfortably near the top of the Western Conference standings is the Los Angeles Lakers, whose 6-2 start is a surprise given that Doncic and James have combined for four appearances. But Reaves' breakout has buoyed the Lakers in his star teammates' absences. In three games without Doncic, Reaves scored 51 against the Kings, 41 against the Trail Blazers and 28 points -- the last featuring a buzzer-beating game-winner over Minnesota -- and he's averaging 31.1 points and 9.3 assists per game overall.

Much of the discussion around this leveling-up has centered on Reaves' upcoming unrestricted free agency -- how much money he could command next summer, and what it might mean for the Lakers' finances and team-building. But if Reaves is anywhere near this good offensively, that also carries importance right now; after all, Doncic has a history of making deep playoff runs with a capable co-star in the backcourt.

Could Reaves play a role similar to the one Jalen Brunson and Kyrie Irving occup