💰 Our favorite second-half prop bet for every team

18.07.2025, 15:40 espn.com

The stars came out in force in Atlanta this week, with Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners winning the Home Run Derby and Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies helping the National League to victory in the first-ever tiebreaking "HR Derby-styled swing-off."

Now, the second half of the 2025 MLB regular season is ready to begin. As always, games will be won, home runs will be hit and bases will be stolen. Predicting which expected names and surprise standouts will claim the late-summer spotlight is no easy task, but our team is up to the challenge.

With that in mind, we asked Todd Zola, Derek Carty, Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft to put their heads together and give us one prop bet for each MLB team in order to give us an idea as to how the second half of the 2025 season just might turn out when all is said and done.

Odds are accurate as of time of writing. For latest odds on these and other bets, go to ESPN BET..

To win the World Series (+700)

A 6-16 stretch from June 13 through July 5 not only dropped the Yankees out of first place, but it also hurt their playoff chances. Losing Clarke Schmidt is a huge blow because he rounded out the solid "top three" generally needed to compete deep into the postseason. However, the Yankees still have Max Fried and Carlos Rodon to front the rotation, and they have the means to pick up another quality starter. Their offense has been criticized as being too reliant on power -- which isn't ideal for the postseason -- but they entered the break averaging the third-most runs per game in the majors, fueled by the top overall weighted on-base average. -- Zola

Under 75.5 regular-season wins (-125)

The Orioles enter the break at 43-52 (.453). They need to finish just 33-34 (.492) to hit the over. This seems like a no-brainer for the under, but there is a caveat. Over their last 61 games, Baltimore has gone 30-31. Repeating those results and then splitting the last six games gets it done. However, the Orioles are likely to be unloading players at the trade deadline while the rest of the AL East could be adding players. Yes, it's encouraging the club has shown marked improvement over the past two months. However, they'll be hard-pressed to sustain this positive pace. -- Zola

Garrett Crochet to win the AL Cy Young (+250)

This is an argument usually reserved for the MVP discussion, as the Cy Young is usually awarded to the best pitcher, with minimal regard to team context and a decreasing reliance on wins. Heading into the break, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal leads Crochet in every rate category across the board. Skubal has clearly pitched better so far. However, the difference is small and, if it remains such a tiny margin through the end of the season and the Red Sox make the playoffs, Crochet may curry the favor of voters due to his tougher division and his helping to carry his club into the postseason. -- Zola

No to making the playoffs (-180)

Sorry to toss cold water on Tampa Bay's recent hot streak (a 27-13 record between May 20 and July 2), but I still see the Rays' playoff hopes being an uphill climb in the competitive AL East. A big reason for my skepticism is the change in home ballparks, as one of the keys for this team down the stretch in the past has been their comfort level in (and benefit from) pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. The Rays' .635 winning percentage at home in August and September since 2021 was third best in the league. This year, they're only 28-25 at George M. Steinbrenner Field. -- Cockcroft

To win the AL East (+140)

While the Yankees (priced at +105) project to be the better team and to win more games over the remainder of the season, this is much closer to a coin flip than the current odds indicate. The Jays currently have a 3.5-game lead on New York, and my projection system (THE BAT X) sees Toronto finishing one game ahead. At +140, they require a 41.7% chance of winning the division to make this a +EV bet, and they currently project for a 46.1% chance. -- Carty

Jose Ramirez to win the AL MVP (+7500)

This is all about the payout in combination with a plausible pathway to win the award. Aaron Judge is the clear-cut favorite, followed by Cal Raleigh. Ramirez is next, tied with Skubal. I'm not wishing an injury upon anyone -- and other than an incident with a sprinkler head in Dodgers Stadium in 2023, Judge has shaken the injury-prone label. However, if he were to get hurt, the MVP is up for grabs. If Raleigh keeps up his torrid pace, he'll be the first AL catcher since Joe Mauer in 2009 to be named MVP. (Buster Posey was the last NL MVP catcher, in 2012.) Ramirez likely won't have the support of being on a playoff-bound team, but he has accrued the fourth-highest WAR since 2016 and could capture the sentimental "lifetime achievement" vote. -- Zola

Noah Cameron to win the AL Rookie of the Year (+10000)

There's just not a lot of positives from which to choose with the Royals. Taking the under on 79.5 wins (-115) is the safe play, but let's think outside the box. Cameron is out over his skis and is due for a correction, but regression doesn't punch a time clock and awards are more about results than what "should have happened." With the Twins and Guardians both being candidates to unload at the trade deadline, Cameron could be facing watered-down lineups much of the time. If the ball continues to sprout a parachute when it's hit in the air, Cameron will continue to benefit from the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium. -- Zola

Tarik Skubal to be the regular-season strikeout leader (+285)

Skubal is the favorite to capture the AL Cy Young, but the payout isn't enticing at -210. He enters the break with the third-most punchouts, seven behind Crochet and one behind Zack Wheeler. Skubal and Wheeler have started 19 games while Crochet has taken the hill 20 times. Crochet is the favorite and will probably be pushed over the second half since the Red Sox will seemingly be in the playoff hunt. The Tigers could take it easy on Skubal, but competing for the best record in the AL might keep Skubal in games longer. Skubal should also face softer lineups over the season's second half. -- Zola

Over 80.5 regular-season wins (-120)

Betting the over on the Twins' win total is a bet that they don't trade SP Joe Ryan. They will need a 34-32 record after the break, which is achievable with Ryan fronting a rotation that should get both Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober back in August. Ryan is under team control through 2027 and, even with a raise in arbitration, he'll be a bargain. The Twins sit just four games back of the final wild-card spot, so while they're a long shot, they are within striking distance. If they're still close at the trade deadline, they may opt to stand pat with the hope that Lopez and Ober give them a solid 5-6 weeks down the stretch. -- Zola

Over 53.5 wins (-115)

The White Sox are not a good major league team by any stretch of the imagination. That said, it's rare that teams remain this bad for too long. They're currently on pace for 53.5 wins, so even some modest improvement would get them over the hump. THE BAT X currently projects them to finish with 57.5 wins, so there actually is some value to be had here. -- Carty

To be AL's No. 1 seed (+320)

Congrats to the Tigers for their wonderfully surprising first half, but the Astros are right with them in the standings and poised to lead the AL in wins. The Astros have been to half of the World Series over the past eight seasons for a reason. Some of the names have changed, but the Astros still boast several dominant starting pitchers and an elite bullpen. Plus, they should upgrade their offense by the trade deadline. -- Karabell

Cal Raleigh under 52.5 home runs (-160)

If you go back and look at the preseason edition of this article, you'll find me recommending Raleigh as a 70-1 MVP bet. That feels pretty good right about now. I love the guy and I love seeing him have such a big year, but 53 home runs is a lot to ask. The supporting numbers all back up the power spike this year, but you have to account for some regression (even in the Statcast metrics) and the chance of an injury (especially for a catcher). I'll be the wet blanket who takes the under in what is perhaps the season's most fun story. -- Carty

Over 80.5 regular-season wins (-120)

According to the Bill James Pythagorean win formula, the Rangers should have 54 wins, which is six more than their actual total at the break. There are many reasons why a team's actual record doesn't always reflect their run differential, but this is an extreme disparity. To hit the over, the Rangers need to win 33 of their remaining 65 games. A lot has to go right, such as Jacob deGrom staying healthy and Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker continuing to develop. Healthy returns from Tyler Mahle and Jon Gray would also help. That said, none of this is outlandish. -- Zola

Nick Kurtz to win the AL Rookie of the Year (+600)

Kurtz would have to beat out ballyhooed teammate Jacob Wilson, who continues to hit for a high batting average, but Kurtz brings big power, and that gets noticed, too. Kurtz barely played in April, then hit five home runs in May, seven more in June, and July looks great so far. He may reach 30 home runs in his rookie season. That would be tough to ignore. -- Karabell

Under 76.5 regular-season wins (-120)

The Angels need just 30 more wins (in 66 games) to hit the over. However, they enjoyed a fluky first half, at least in terms of run differential, winning five more games than expected. The Bill James Pythagorean win formula is based on full-season results, so there is some "noise" applying it to a shorter sample size, but with almost 100 games in the books, five games is still a big difference. Look for Angels pitching to struggle after the break, with the team coming up short of 77 wins. -- Zola

Zack Wheeler to win the NL Cy Young (+170)

Wheeler has finished as runner-up for this awa

Read full news…