⚾ Trends that ruled first half -- and whether they'll continue

18.07.2025, 14:24 espn.com

The first half of the MLB season is in the books. Well actually, we've played nearly 60% of the schedule, but everyone still denotes the first and second halves of the season around the All-Star break.

So, now that the All-Star festivities are behind us, let's look back at the storylines that dominated the first half and how they might play out the rest of the season.

Before we begin, let's hand out some honorable mentions that didn't make our list of the top 10 storylines: the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves' disappointing seasons; the Houston Astros rolling to a lead in the AL West despite Yordan Alvarez's injury, losing Alex Bregman and trading Kyle Tucker; Jacob Wilson's .332 average as a rookie; Matthew Boyd's incredible year for the Chicago Cubs; Jacob deGrom's comeback; Eugenio Suarez's four-homer game; and Denzel Clarke's dazzling catches in center field for the Athletics.

OK, now let's dig into the top 10 storylines of the 2025 season so far.

The AL East has gone through enough plot twists this season to fill a whole series of David Baldacci novels -- and we haven't even reached August.

The New York Yankees looked as if they would run away with the division early, building a seven-game lead in late May, but they've gone 11-18 since June 13 and have dropped to second place, creating a panic among their fans. The Toronto Blue Jays, on the other hand, won 10 in a row in late June and early July to surge into first. The Tampa Bay Rays, playing in a spring training facility, went 33-22 in May and June -- a period in which they were second in the majors in runs scored -- but have gone 3-9 in July to fall into fourth place. The Baltimore Orioles? They fired their manager and might trade half the team at the trade deadline.

But the Boston Red Sox have been the biggest melodrama of all. The Rafael Devers saga, which began in spring training, included complaints about his DH role, a terrible start at the plate, some hot hitting, a refusal to play first base and then concluded with the shocking trade to the San Francisco Giants, which came hours after Boston had just completed a three-game sweep of the Yankees. A six-game losing streak soon followed as the Red Sox organization was dripping with bad karma.

But this is baseball, where the narrative can flip in a hurry: The Red Sox won their final 10 games heading into the All-Star break, have climbed into a wild-card position, are only three games out of first place and just got Bregman back from the injured list.

"I do think there's a real chance that at the end of the season, we're looking back and we've won more games than we otherwise would've," chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters after the Devers trade. He might be right -- at least if the pitching can deliver the way it did in that 10-game winning streak, when the staff had a 1.90 ERA.

Will it remain a storyline? Absolutely. Sure, the expanded wild-card race makes division races less important than they once were, but teams still want to win the division and avoid that best-of-three wild-card round. Plus, the potential of a four-team race makes the AL East the most exciting race to follow in the second half. Though all four teams could still make the playoffs, that's no guarantee as the Seattle Mariners currently hold one of the wild-card spots ahead of the Rays.

The Cubs have a powerhouse lineup with MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, fellow All-Star starter Tucker, the scorching-hot Michael Busch, who is fifth in the majors in OPS, and Seiya Suzuki, who has 25 home runs and 77 RBIs. They have an All-Star pitcher in Boyd, Shota Imanaga has a 2.65 ERA and the bullpen has been very good. And that's not even mentioning their catchers, who have 20 home runs, 65 RBIs and the second-highest OPS in the majors.

Despite all of that, the Milwaukee Brewers are only one game back.

How is that possible? They find ways to score runs without relying on the long ball; they're 23rd in the majors in home runs but seventh in runs scored, with their speed and aggressiveness on the bases helping there. As always, they somehow find enough pitching, and the anonymous-but-hard-throwing bullpen threesome of Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Jared Koenig has turned into one of the most imposing late-game trios.

Will it remain a storyline? Yes, the Brewers are absolutely the real deal, running off seven wins in a row before the All-Star break. They do begin the second half with a tough trip against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Mariners, with a home series against the Cubs after that to close out July, but there's a reason the Brewers have made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons: This team knows how to win.

They've also recently added two key players in Brandon Woodruff, finally back from shoulder surgery, and rookie flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski, who is 4-1 with a 2.65 ERA in five starts, dominating with his fastball that averages 99.3 mph. Indeed, Misiorowski looms as one of the most important players the rest of the way: If he keeps this going and with Woodruff looking like his pre-injury form -- 18 strikeouts and no walks in his two starts -- the trio of Freddy Peralta, Woodruff and Misiorowski will be a scary rotation to face in October.

We all know the details of this one:

Behind curtain No. 1: Cal Raleigh, on pace for an AL-record 64 home runs (he currently has 38) and putting together perhaps the greatest offensive season ever for a catcher.

Behind curtain No. 2: Aaron Judge, on pace for 11.8 WAR and putting together one of the greatest offensive seasons in the sport's history.

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It's hard to believe a catcher might hit 50-something home runs -- or more -- and not win the MVP award, but that's what might happen. Voters are WAR-focused these days, and Judge has a chance for only the sixth 12-WAR season by a position player (three of the previous five are by Babe Ruth). That probably makes Judge the favorite, especially since he's not far behind Raleigh with 35 home runs and is probably one of his patented hot streaks away from getting back on pace for another 60-homer season.

Will it remain a storyline? Let's hope so. Remember, we were in a similar situation a year ago with an epic three-player race between Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson, only to see Judge pull away to an eventual unanimous selection over Witt. It's hard to imagine Raleigh keeping it going at this rate, especially given his heavy workload behind the plate (he's third in the majors in innings caught), and he has been a little one dimensional in July (he has only five hits, all of them home runs). Judge is the heavy betting favorite at -600 to +325 for Raleigh, according to ESPN BET.

As a rookie in 2024, Crow-Armstrong hit .237/.286/.384 with 10 home runs in 123 games -- not exactly numbers that would have projected him as an MVP candidate the following year. But he has emerged as not only one of the most exciting players in the majors, but one of the most valuable as well. With 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases, he's on pace for a 40/40 season, and with help from some superlative defensive metrics, he leads the NL in both Baseball-Reference WAR (5.2) and FanGraphs WAR. (4.9), beating James Wood (4.4) in the former and Shohei Ohtani (4.3) in the latter.

Crow-Armstrong would certainly be one of the most surprising MVP winners ever, and one of the most distinctive. His .302 OBP would be the lowest for an MVP position player, beating Zoilo Versalles' .319 mark from 1965. Only 10 MVP winners have had an OBP below .350. He'd also be the first center fielder to win NL MVP since Andrew McCutchen in 2013.

Will it remain a storyline? Yes. With Crow-Armstrong's ultra-aggressive approach at the plate (he has the highest chase rate in the majors among qualified batters), it figured pitchers would eventually figure out how to exploit that. But they haven't so far and PCA, while not possessing huge raw power, continues to barrel up baseballs. Looming in his rearview mirror in the MVP race: Ohtani, who has now added pitching to his repertoire and is slowly working up to a starter's workload. He leads the NL in home runs, slugging, runs scored, OPS and total bases. ESPN BET has made him the favorite at -700, with Crow-Armstrong at +750. Keep your eye on Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker as well.

That 8-0 start, following the offseason additions of Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki and Tanner Scott, created talk that the Dodgers might be one of the greatest teams of all time. Well, they aren't.

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Despite an inconsistent first half, one full of more pitching injuries and some subpar performances from the likes of Mookie Betts and Michael Conforto, the Dodgers are still on pace for 97 wins. A 2-7 slump heading into the break highlighted some of their issues: Betts has a sub-.700 OPS, Freddie Freeman is hitting .197 with one home run over his past 32 games, Scott has seven blown saves, the rotation ranks just 20th in the majors in ERA (and last in innings pitched) and the bullpen ranks 24th in ERA. Oh, and the Dodgers have churned through 35 pitchers this season.

Will it remain a storyline? Check back in October, when the Dodgers will try to become the first team since the 2000 Yankees to repeat as World Series champs.

As good as the Tigers have looked, having the best record (59-38) in the majors at the All-Star break was still unexpected: They were 18th in our preseason Power Rankings, with a projected record of 83-79, and only 11 of our 28 voters picked Detroit to win the division. Tarik Skubal has been great, as expected, but nobody had Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry making the All-Star team on their bingo card. Gleyber Torres, with a .387 OBP, has been one of the best offseason signings, and former No. 1 picks Spencer To