Lowe: Pressure on Mavericks, Clippers
Welcome to the first truly big game of the 2024 playoffs: Game 3 between the LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, two teams that fell on the opposite side of the West bracket from the defending champion Denver Nuggets -- teams that would be confident facing the winner of the Oklahoma City Thunder-New Orleans Pelicans series in the next round.
Both are under enormous pressure -- some self-imposed -- to make at least the conference finals. The Mavericks owe their 2024 first-round pick to the New York Knicks -- the last vestige of the ill-fated Kristaps Porzingis deal -- and do not control any of their first-round picks from 2027 through 2030. They traded all those picks and swap rights to reformat their roster around Luka Doncic -- including some trades that were essentially meant to undo prior transactional failures.
The Clippers do not control any of their own picks until 2030. They traded almost everything -- including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, now looming as a potential second-round foe -- to pair Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. In four seasons so far, they have won three playoff series.
Two of those have come against Doncic and the Mavericks. These teams know each other very well. The amount of combined star power is staggering, all of it on the perimeter: six future Hall of Famers, including some of the greatest ball handlers and scorers in NBA history.
And yet all that scoring has translated into an ultra-slow slog. Leonard missing the Clippers' rousing Game 1 win in effect delayed the start of the chess match between these superstars and their point guards-turned-coaches. The real strategic back-and-forth begins Friday night.
It was as if the stars spent Game 2 eyeing and testing each other: If we do this, how will you respond on defense? It was deliberate, station-to-station basketball. They tried out tactics, poked at matchups, took inventory. It almost seemed like the manifestation of mutual respect -- as if they know risking too much too soon, playing with too much cavalier freedom, invites an avalanche of scoring from the other side.
It was very much in keeping with the broader playoff climate so far. If you craved the return of grimy 1990s basketball, this postseason has been for you -- at least outside the rollicking Miami Heat-Boston Celtics 3-point duel. In the regular season, the New York Knicks averaged about 96 possessions per game -- the league's slowest pace of play. All 16 playoff teams are averaging a lower figure, meaning all eight series are being played at a collective place slower than the league's slowest regular-season team.
Playoff teams have averaged 110 points per 100 possessions -- a collapse from a leaguewide average of 115.3 in the regular season, per Basketball-Reference. Shooting percentages have plummeted from 54.5% on 2s and 36.6% on 3s in the regular season to 52.0% and 34.5% in the playoffs. Eight of the 16 playoff teams have underperformed their expected effective field goal percentages based on the identity of shooters and the location of both the shot and the nearest defender -- several by huge margins -- per Second Spectrum.
Some of this is bad shooting luck that will turn, but the games have been slow and ultraphysical.
Slowed-down mismatch-hunting is a staple of playoff basketball. It is a compliment to the quality of opposing team defenses -- what you are left with when the pretty, choreographed stuff doesn't work. The Clippers are built to win mismatch-hunting battles. The Mavericks, in theory, face a mismatch-hunting math problem: They have two perimeter scoring stars, and the Clippers have three. Two of the Clippers' three stars are elite defenders too -- Leonard and George. Both Mavericks scoring stars -- Doncic and Irving -- have been considered average or worse on defense for most of their careers.
When all five are on the floor, one of the Mavs' stars will have to guard one of the Clippers' stars. The reverse is not necessarily true.
Both Leonard and George will guard Doncic plenty anyway, either as their primary assignment or on switches. George has often been tasked with chasing Irving.
Leonard spent much of the second half in Game 2 guarding Doncic -- at least early in possessions. The cost of that is losing the ever-present threat of Leonard's help defense.
Leonard shot only 7-of-17 in his first game since March 31, but he looked healthy and bouncy. He snared four steals, including some trademark "Where did he come from?" horror movie villain swipes. Most of his five 3s -- all misses -- were good looks produced in rhythm. The Clippers hit just 5-of-17 on catch-and-shoot 3s in Game 2. Even Harden took them semi-willingly. If they generate the same quality of looks, they figure to hit more.
Whichever team first blends its system offense with its brilliant individual scoring will win this series. Each team can play both styles pretty well. The real magic happens when the two styles exist within the same possession, one flowing into the other so that it feels more organic and less strained.
Doncic has tortured the Clippers in the past -- and specifically Ivica Zubac when he draws Zubac on switches. The Clippers have mostly refused to give Doncic that switch and leave Zubac on the Island of Step-Back 3s. They have mixed up tactics to keep Doncic guessing, but their closest thing to a default strategy has been keeping Zubac in the paint:
The idea is for Doncic's man to get over the screen so that he can't jack 3s, and for Zubac to barricade the paint without help -- leaving the Mavs' shooters blanketed and Doncic to make tough in-between shots. Blitzing Doncic forces the ball out of his hands, but also exposes easy passes that get the Mavs' offense moving. Dropping Zubac back cedes Doncic a runway but forces him to create in tight confines.
You could see Doncic in Games 1 and 2 digesting this scheme. He knows it well. He also knows Clippers coach Ty Lue, ever the chess master, could abandon it without warning -- and then bring it back. But after settling for fadeaway midrangers, Doncic began prodding that dropback scheme with more oomph -- attacking Zubac at full speed, carving deeper into the lane, threading lobs to Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, sucking help defenders away from shooters. The Mavs helped by having their centers screen for Doncic very high on the floor to extend his runway.
Perhaps Doncic and Irving could inject pace into the offense by running the two-man game with more urgency -- earlier in the shot clock, with more head-down speed when Zubac hangs back. Lively and Gafford can help by setting bone-rattling screens -- generating separation. Irving has hit a few 3s against the Clippers' dropback scheme, and made the right reads when the Mavs have blitzed him.
The more interesting tactical battle starts when the Mavericks sit their rim-running centers and play Maxi Kleber there. That five-out alignment got Dallas to the conference finals two seasons ago. It remains in head coach Jason Kidd's back pocket, and even in a down year for Kleber, it works.
The Mavs outscored opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions this season when Doncic and Kleber played without any Dallas centers on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass. They are plus-24 in this series with Kleber as solo big man, per ESPN Stats & Information. Zubac overwhelmed Gafford in Game 1. Gafford played only eight-plus minutes in Game 2 because of a back injury.
Those Kleber-at-center lineups do not have a real interior threat. Some opponents counter by switching everything. The Clippers might counter by dispensing with their centers and playing five guards -- a look they flashed in Game 2, though mostly with Russell Westbrook instead of Terance Mann as the fifth player. Mann did not help his cause by passing up a wide-open corner 3 in the first half -- a maddening wart in his game. Zubac has played so well when not in foul trouble that it's not clear if the Clippers gain anything by going small regardless of what Dallas does.
FridayBucks at Pacers, 5:30 p.m. (Game 3) Clippers at Mavericks, 8:00 p.m. (Game 3) Timberwolves at Suns, 10:30 p.m. (Game 3)
SaturdayNuggets at Lakers, 7:30 p.m. (Game 3 on ABC)
All times Eastern
In the conference finals two years ago, the Phoenix Suns switched against the Kleber-at-center lineups and tried to play Doncic one-on-one -- in fear of the damage he might inflict as a passer if they doubled him. Doncic could pick his matchup and go to work.
Doncic is too big for some defenders, too crafty for almost anyone. He got where he wanted to go against Phoenix and either scored inside or drew emergency help.
The Clippers aren't having that. As soon as Doncic gets a matchup he likes, they are sending a double-team toward him above the 3-point arc. The effect looks the same -- two players on Doncic, the rest defending 3-on-4 -- but it is proactive where the Suns' help was reactive. The Clippers want to hit first. If they are going to compromise their defense, they at least want to dictate terms -- to know where and when the help is coming, and how to script their rotations from there.
If Dallas has to play its best defenders more to contain LA's scorers, the Clips will try to force those guys -- Dante Exum, Josh Green, Derrick Jones Jr., P.J. Washington -- to hit 3s and make plays off the bounce. Those guys are capable. Exum and Green hit 49% and 38.5% on 3s -- though on low volume. Jones hit just 34% on mostly wide-open 3s, but he attacks the paint when given space.
If those guys make enough shots, Dallas can win:
The Clippers are not going to let Doncic go one-on-one against Norman Powell with shooting around him.
Amir Coffey is a stout defender, but the Clips won't leave him alone against Doncic either -- again sending the double before Doncic crosses the 3-point line.
The rotations out of that are shorter because Lively is in the game. But they still require Zubac to shift assignments, and that whirlwind can end with him in a bad matchup. The Mavs need to leave
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6 of May 2024
