NFL draft: Biggest need vs. best value
Let's be clear: This isn't a mock draft. It isn't a projection of what each team will actually do in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. Instead, it's a look at which prospects might make sense -- and should still be on the board -- at each slot based on two very different draft room strategies: picking to fill a huge team need and picking based on "best player available."
Ideally, NFL teams try to marry the two concepts when making selections in Round 1 -- addressing a need without reaching is how teams win on draft night. But when each franchise is on the clock, decision-makers are weighing a lot of different things, and sometimes there's a value pick too good to pass up or a roster weakness too big to ignore. So for a second year in a row, we asked our NFL draft analysts to explore both sides of the table for all 32 first-round picks:
Jordan Reid named a prospect who would best fill every team's biggest (or in some cases, second-biggest) position need.
Matt Miller pointed to the prospect who would give each team maximum value and satisfy a "best player available" approach, while also factoring in positional value.
Repeat picks weren't allowed, so each selection was based on the current board for each analyst. The lower we get in Round 1, the more variety you'll see. Essentially, we tried to lay out a few options for every front office gearing up for a Day 1 pick.
See final rankings (ESPN+):Miller | Reid
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
After dealing Justin Fields to Pittsburgh, the Bears don't have a starting quarterback -- and their 44.5 QBR over the past five seasons ranks 27th in the NFL. Williams can be the new face of the franchise.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The Bears can match need with value here. Williams has been the wire-to-wire best player in the 2024 draft, and he should go first overall.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The Commanders are looking for a starting quarterback, and while I actually have North Carolina's Drake Maye ranked higher, I went with Daniels here because he's more pro ready right now. Washington will likely have its rookie start out of the gate. Daniels has exciting tools as a passer and runner.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
I have three receivers ranked between Williams and Daniels, but the quarterback positional value is enough to boost Daniels past them in this category. My No. 5 overall player -- who is a terrific deep-ball thrower -- just so happens to also fill the Commanders' biggest weakness.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Staying put and drafting a QB would be the answer here. The Patriots lack the offensive personnel necessary for a young QB to succeed right now, but they can address those other needs later in the draft. Patience will be key; New England would have to let Maye -- who has a big arm -- develop over time.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
I don't see New England actually going this route, but we're going off value. And the value is too sweet with Harrison, my No. 2 overall player with a big-time grade of 98 overall. That's tied for the best in this class with Williams. Harrison has unreal body control, speed and instincts, helping him to 14 touchdowns last season.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Harrison is the best player in the class, and the Cardinals have a WR1 issue at the moment. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are currently the top receivers on the depth chart, so Kyler Murray could use a game-changing target in the pass game.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Here's another solid value with Odunze, who is ranked No. 3 on my board. He's super powerful and finished the 2023 season with 1,640 yards. If Harrison were still on the board for me, he'd edge Odunze, but Arizona can't go wrong with either.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
With the worst receiver depth chart in the league, the Chargers are desperate for an electrifying talent like Nabers, who could ignite an offense that lacked explosive plays last season. He'd help replace Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Nabers is sitting at No. 4 overall on my board, making this a sweet value play for the Chargers while also setting up quarterback Justin Herbert with a young, game-changing wide receiver.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Giants don't have a true No. 1 receiver, with Darius Slayton leading the team at 770 receiving yards last season. Odunze would be a dominating presence on the perimeter and finally give New York a go-to target.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
I'm not as high on Maye as others -- he's No. 9 overall on my board -- but it's not a huge reach to take him here because of the positional value for quarterbacks. And that's especially true because he's expected to go even higher than this.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Left tackle is a glaring hole in Tennessee, especially after the team released Andre Dillard. The Titans allowed 64 sacks last season, tied for fourth most in the NFL. Alt is a plug-and-play option who has the potential to be a building block on the offensive line for the next decade.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The ideal spot where need and value meet! Alt is my No. 6 overall player, as he displays power and agility both as a pass-protector and run-blocker. He gave up just two sacks over the past two seasons.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
My top-ranked defensive player in the draft, Turner would give the Falcons a high-end starter off the edge. Atlanta was last in pass rush win rate (30.9%) and tied for 21st in sacks (42) last season, and Turner has immense upside.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Yeah, the Falcons have to get a pass-rusher in this draft, and considering Turner is my No. 7 overall player, this works out well. He had 10 sacks last season.
Check out the plays that make Alabama linebacker Dallas Turner a prospect coveted by NFL scouts.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Montez Sweat was a great add for Chicago at the trade deadline last season, but he needs a running mate off the edge. The Bears' 30 sacks were second worst in the NFL in 2023. Verse is a high-floor prospect who fits well with coach Matt Eberflus' scheme, and he finished last season with nine sacks.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Offensive tackle is not a huge hole in Chicago with Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright entrenched as starters, but Fashanu is my No. 11 overall player and a great value add. I love his potential. And you can never have too many offensive linemen.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Jets also need an offensive playmaker, so I considered that option. But with durability questions for newly acquired Tyron Smith, let's not forget about left tackle. I think developing Fashanu as the heir apparent makes sense; he could end up playing significant time as a rookie and helping keep Aaron Rodgers upright.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Bowers is a popular mock draft pick for the Jets based on team needs and intel from sources, but he is actually a great value, too. Bowers -- who reminds me of George Kittle and can be a matchup problem for opposing defenses -- is my No. 10 prospect in the class.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Kirk Cousins is in Atlanta now, leaving Sam Darnold as the starting quarterback in Minnesota at the moment. I don't think McCarthy is going to still be here at No. 11, but again, this isn't a mock draft. We're filling needs, and this is a big one. McCarthy would enter a situation with the infrastructure for him to succeed. He showed good accuracy and mobility last season at Michigan.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
I have McCarthy at No. 19 on my board, which might be high enough to also make him the value pick, considering the adjustment for position. But my No. 8 player is still out there. While cornerback is fourth on my list of needs for the Vikings, Arnold is the best value pick. He has great speed and picked off five passes in 2023.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The Broncos lack high-upside pass-catching options, especially after trading away Jerry Jeudy. There are a lot of weaknesses here, but Bowers would check a big box for Denver. He's incredible after the catch and can line up all over the offense.
Miller's pick that gets best value: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
McCarthy is often projected as a top-five pick, but his value based on grades is closer to the middle of Round 1. So I'm comfortable matching him with the Broncos here. McCarthy finished third in the nation in QBR (88.2) and completed 72.3% of his throws last season.
Reid's pick that fills a big need: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Based on need, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix could theoretically be a consideration here. But the Raiders did sign Gardner Minshew, and there is a pretty big hole at another position. Putting Latham at right tackle opposite Kolton Miller would give the Raiders dependable bookends on the offensive line. Latham would bring a physical presence that has been lacking in Vegas.
Miller's pick that gets best value: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
We agree on the position but not the player. Fuaga is No. 12 on my board, and I think he is the best right tackle in the 2024 class, even above Latham. He's an elite run-blocker and has serious power.
• Mock drafts | DraftCast: Top prospects• Rankings: Kiper | Miller | Reid
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2 of May 2024
