Re-ranking women’s NCAA tournament Sweet 16 teams by national championship chances
After the first two rounds of the women’s NCAA tournament, No. 1-overall seed South Carolina has cemented its status as the overwhelming favorite, running over, past and all around No. 16-seed Presbyterian in the first round and No. 8-seed North Carolina in the second round to push the Gamecocks’ record to a perfect 34-0.
But if South Carolina falters, what team has the best chance of grabbing the trophy in Cleveland? Despite a less than confidence-inducing start to their tournament, could No. 3-seed LSU repeat as national champions? Will Caitlin Clark and the No. 1-seed Iowa Hawkeyes fulfill their hoped-for championship destiny? Could JuJu Watkins stake her claim in the women’s college basketball world, leading No. 1-seed USC to the program’s first title since the days of Cheryl Miller?
Ahead of the Sweet 16, we’re ranking the remaining teams by their championship equity. Here’s how we see the race for the 2024 national title.
No. 5-seed Baylor was up-and-down throughout Big 12 play, and their second-round win did little to alleviate concerns about their ability to find the consistency required to go on a deep tournament run. After a drama-free defeat of No. 12-seed Vanderbilt in the first round, the Bears needed a career night from junior guard Jada Walker to escape in the second round against a Virginia Tech team that was not of typical No. 4-seed quality, as the Hokies were without grad center and ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley, who missed the tournament with a torn ACL.
Walker scored 26 of her career-high 28 points in the second half. It was the kind of effort that makes March magical, but not one that is sustainable. For the season, Walker averages 8.2 points per game; her previous single-game season high was 19 points. Another Bear, such as grad forward Dre’Una Edwards or senior guard Sarah Andrews, will need an offensive outburst for Baylor to advance. They also must play with the defensive attention to detail that sophomore forward Darianna Littlepage-Buggs recently described to Swish Appeal’s Edwin Garcia. Expect head coach Nicki Collen, who has experience on the WNBA sidelines, to have a scheme ready for Baylor’s next opponent: No. 1-seed USC and freshman phenom JuJu Watkins.
The only mid-major to make it to the Sweet 16, No. 4-seed Gonzaga may not have the talent of their high-major counterparts, but skill and strategy could very well carry them beyond the Sweet 16.
The Bulldogs are the nation’s best 3-point shooting team, converting just over 40 percent of their long-range efforts for the season. The triples were flying and falling for the Zags in the second round, as a 12-for-22 performance (54.5 percent) from behind the arc propelled them past No. 5-seed Utah, despite 35 points from Utes senior forward Alissa Pili. Grad guards and sisters Kaylynne and Kayleigh Truong combined for seven of the Zags’ 12 3-pointers, as Kayleigh led her team with 21 points. Senior forward Yvonne Ejim takes care of things inside the arc for the Bulldogs; on Monday night, she had a 17-point and 11-rebound double-double.
To become the tournament’s Cinderella and defeat No. 1-seed Texas in the Sweet 16, Gonzaga must lean further into their strength, stretching out a stout Longhorn defense by upping their 3-point volume and hoping the gods of shooting variance smile on them.
No. 7-seed Duke does not make things easy on themselves. In the first round, they trailed No. 10-seed Richmond by nine points at the half; in the second round, the Blue Devils fell down by 16 points to No. 2-seed Ohio State in the first half.
But no matter the deficit—and no matter if they struggle through a seemingly interminable scoring drought—the Blue Devils trust their process, which begins with playing aggressive, high-execution defense. Defensive stops eventually turn into easier scoring opportunities, creating a virtuous feedback loop that fuels the Blue Devils. And if junior guard Reigan Richardson, who has 25- and 28-point performances in two tournament games remains on a heater, Duke is dangerous—even against their Sweet 16 foe, No. 3-seed UConn. However, while the Blue Devils effectively stalled Ohio State guard Jacy Sheldon in the second round, slowing the brilliant Paige Bueckers is a tougher task.
A team full of freshman, sophomores and transfers, the Blue Devils are ahead of schedule. Next year, when head coach Kara Lawson welcomes the nation’s fifth-ranked recruiting class to Durham (a class that could become more highly-regarded if the top recruit in the class of 2024, forward Sarah Strong, chooses Duke), a Final Four run will be the expectation.
A nip-and-tuck second-round game between No. 4-seed Indiana and No. 5-seed Oklahoma became a Hoosier victory when Mackenzie Holmes went to work. The 6-foot-3 grad center might be the most skilled post player in the tournament. She certainly looked like it late in Monday night’s game, demanding the ball, dipping deep into her bag of moves and scoring six-straight points down the stretch to deliver the Hoosiers to the Sweet 16.
Holmes, however, likely will struggle to show off her smooth moves in the next round, as No. 1-seed South Carolina and the nation’s top-ranked defense, anchored by 6-foot-7 senior center Kamilla Cardoso, awaits. Indiana’s lack of depth also profiles as a problem against South Carolina, as the Hoosiers benefited from only one point from a reserve against Oklahoma. South Carolina, in contrast, has depth for days.
To have a chance to challenge, much less defeat, the Gamecocks the Hoosiers must go all in from behind the arc. The nation’s third-best 3-point shooting team at 39.6 percent, Indiana averages 20.8 3s per game. They have to take more. Indiana’s other four starters—fifth-year senior guard Sara Scalia, senior guard Sydney Parrish, senior guard Chloe Moore-McNeil and sophomore guard Yarden Garzon—cannot hesitate to fire away. And if their shots are falling, that could then open up things for Holmes inside. The Hoosiers do own an upset of Iowa, which should give them an extra dose of confidence on Friday.
When dreaming of a Pac-12 team saying goodbye to the conference with a national title, one might imagine USC, UCLA or Stanford raising the trophy. Why not No. 3-seed Oregon State? (Well, because South Carolina is in their way.) Throughout the 2023-24 season, more than a handful of skepticism has surrounded the Beavers, requiring them slowly and steadily rise in the AP poll until, finally, earning the respect requisite of their play.
Oregon State has size, shooting and a solid defense — a formula that can carry a team far in March. They showed it off in taking care of business against No. 14-seed Eastern Washington and No. 6-seed Nebraska. And although it might be a March cliche, they also have heart, embodied by junior guard Talia von Oelhoffen. In Sunday’s win over Nebraska, she penned “heart” on her arm sleeve, and then led the Beavers with 19 points. She’s also cold-blooded, evidenced by the buzzer-beating 3 she drained to take down UCLA in mid-February.
On Monday night, No. 8-seed West Virginia introduced the blueprint for causing trouble for Caitlin Clark and No. 1-seed Iowa, defending with physicality and grounding the Hawkeyes’ offensive attack. The Mountaineers were unable to finish the job. But might the Buffaloes be able to?
Like West Virginia, No. 5-seed Colorado wins with defense; they’re comfortable turning games into grinds. On Sunday they held No. 4-seed Kansas State and star senior center Ayoka Lee, who once scored 61 points in a single game, to 15 total second-half points. Grad guard Jaylyn Sherrod provides point of attack pressure, junior center Aaronette Vonleh is a presence in the paint and grad forward Quay Miller is full of thankless hustle. The lightning-quick Sherrod also can pack a scoring punch in transition or the half court, while the likes of senior guard Frida Foreman is capable of catching fire from downtown.
The Buffaloes also are upset certified. On opening night of the 2023-24 season, Colorado stunned defending-champion LSU in dominating fashion.
No. 3-seed NC State began the season with a bang, with wins over then-No. 2 UConn and then-No. 3 Colorado. After beginning the season unranked, the Wolfpack ascended to as high as No. 2 in the AP poll. Down the stretch of the regular season, however, NC State struggled through a few uninspiring wins and even less inspiring losses before rebounding to advance to the ACC Tournament title game.
Although the Wolfpack won by nearly 20 points over No. 14-seed Chattanooga in the first round, they did so scoring only 64 points and shooting a pretty putrid 33.3 percent from the field. In the second round, a nine-point third quarter allowed No. 6-seed Tennessee to turn what was tracking to be a comfortable Wolfpack win into a down-to-the-wire contest.
In short, it’s been a mixed bag for the Wolfpack. One encouraging development for NC State has been the emergence of junior guard Aziaha James as the team’s top scoring option. After several strong showings in the ACC Tournament, she’s led the Pack with 19 points and 22 points in their two tourney games. Against the Lady Vols, four of her 22 points came in the game’s tensest moments, as she converted a tough floater before draining the dagger 3-pointer. Although it might not always be pretty, NC State’s experience playing under pressure could pay off, including as soon as in the Sweet 16 against No. 2-seed Stanford.
If No. 2-seed Notre Dame did not share a region with South Carolina, they’d rank higher on this list. Notre Dame has won 10-straight games, defeating No. 15-seed Kent State in the first round before holding off No. 7-seed Ole Miss in the second round.
It’s not just about the results for the Irish. After freshman fireball Hannah Hidalgo tried to do everything for the Irish through much of the season, she’s now formed a threatening trio with junior guard Sonia Citron and junior forward Maddy Westbeld. The three combined for 56 of No
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27 of April 2024
