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Week 14's Sunday slate brings us an abundance of intriguing NFL matchups, including the Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 46.5) hosting the division-rival Cleveland Browns, the New York Jets going for a season sweep of the Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 43), the Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 45) visiting the New York Giants, and the San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 37.5) hosting Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
What is worth looking at from a betting perspective? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz offer their insights into the games with tips and picks.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Kezirian: I think it's silly to think Cleveland has Burrow's number because we must assess the context of each loss. The first two losses came in Burrow's rookie season in which Cincy won four games. In fact, the Bengals scored at least 30 points in both and lost by one score; the defense was the issue. The next year involved a game that just set up perfectly for the Browns, involving a week in which they cut Odell Beckham Jr. and essentially faced a must-win situation. And this year's loss was Cincinnati's first game since losing WR Ja'Marr Chase to injury. The offense was completely lost. I am going to give the Bengals a pass on that one. As for this matchup, it's tricky because of the rust QB Deshaun Watson demonstrated in his return. I lean to the Bengals, but it's not my favorite play.
Fortenbaugh: I'm not rushing to lay the -6 because the Bengals are off a monster win over Kansas City. But I would play Cincinnati in a 6-point teaser with Philadelphia. Cleveland's offense has nowhere to go but up after producing just six points last week at Houston. But I still think Deshaun Watson is a good distance from being able to go toe-to-toe with Burrow, on his home turf, with a Cleveland defense that ranks 27th in scoring.
Schatz: I know it is just one game, but I'll admit that I'm discouraged about the Browns based on how unprepared Watson looked last week in his first game back after nearly two years. The Browns' offense was actually really good with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, and I would probably take the Browns and the points with Brissett. But if the Browns' offense is even just average rather than good, their poor defense (27th in DVOA) will give up too many points to Burrow and the Bengals. With the game in Cincinnati, I'll take the home team.
Moody: I'm taking the Bengals here coming off of a huge win over the Chiefs. With Joe Mixon expected to return and Chase not appearing to have any setbacks, Cincinnati will be at full strength offensively. The Bengals have covered the spread 12 times in the past 16 games between these two teams. At home, Cincinnati should be able to take care of business. Watson, in only his second game following a long layoff, is not yet ready to go toe-to-toe with Burrow and this red-hot Bengals team. The Browns' offense struggled against the Texans last week. In their past 10 games, the Bengals are 9-1 against the spread, and they are 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games.
Snellings: I'm taking the Bengals -6, over 46.5. I've been beating the drum for quite a while that the Bengals' slow start was almost entirely due to A) Burrow having preseason appendix surgery and not getting to play at all with B) a completely rebuilt offensive line in C) two games against defenses featuring last year's Defensive Player of the Year (T.J. Watt) and likely this year's (Micah Parsons). Perfect storm. Since then, the team has progressively gotten better, with the one hiccup being their MNF matchup with the Browns that was A) the first game without Chase and B) the exact same day Bengals assistant coach Adam Zimmer was found dead. Again, there are reasons the Bengals did not look like themselves in that matchup.
The Bengals' offense is clicking right now, and with Chase a week healthier and Mixon presumably back, they are close to full speed. They'll miss tight end Hayden Hurst but should have plenty in the tank to put a big number on the scoreboard. I expect Watson to look better for the Browns in Week 2, but I think he still has a ways to go before he's ready to compete with an in-form Bengals team. Plus, the Bengals have been hearing ad nauseam how the Browns own them. I think they come out this week and try to prove a point.
Marks: I love the Bengals this week at home against the Browns. The Burrow-led offense has scored on over 50% of its possessions since Week 8 and is hoping to get Mixon back in action. Watson was beyond rusty last week (54% completions, 6 yards per pass attempt, and only 3-for-9 for 37 yards when pressured).
Tyler Fulghum discusses his reasons for going with the under as the Jets travel to face the Bills.
Schatz: Please give me the Jets +10. I think this line is just too big given how well the Jets' defense has played this year -- and how well it played against the Bills in Week 9. Yes, the Bills will have Jordan Poyer back but perhaps not Matt Milano, and Von Miller is done for the year. Meanwhile, the Jets look so much better with Mike White at quarterback instead of Zach Wilson. The Bills are still No. 1 in DVOA, clearly the better team, but this line should really be more like 7 or even 6.5.
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Kezirian: I like the Jets, too. The Bills remind me of the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs, who ultimately finished 8-11 ATS, including the playoffs. The offensive numbers are impressive, boosted by a stellar quarterback, but the Bills also have a knack for playing down to their opponent. Entering this season, Buffalo was on a ridiculous run with nearly all wins coming by double digits. However, four of this season's nine wins are by single digits, and it is a respectable 6-5-1 ATS. I think the Jets with Mike White are decent offensively to go along with a strong defense.
Moody: I'm taking the 10 and backing the Jets. Even though it's difficult to imagine New York winning its second consecutive game against the Bills, the Jets are very capable of staying within the current number, especially with White rather than Wilson under center. New York's defense is excellent at stopping the run, has a great pass rush and a very strong secondary. Although the Jets might not be able to completely stop a Bills offense that ranks among the top five in total yards and points scored per game, they can slow them down. The Jets are 4-0 against the spread in their past four games after a straight-up loss.
Snellings: Lump me among those taking the Jets and the points. In what should be a defensive-oriented game, 10 points seems like too large of a spread. I think the Bills win, and they might start to look better as they approach the playoffs, but 10 is too many.
Marks: I like the under in this matchup. The Jets' defense is allowing a league-low 26.6 yards per possession this season, opponents are scoring on only 30% of their offensive drives, and neither team's offense scores well inside the 5-yard line. Bad weather is expected in Buffalo on Sunday (30 degrees, snow, wind gusts up to 15 mph). The under is the play here!
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Walder: Here are three sides against the spread that our Football Power Index likes.
New England Patriots (-1.5, 43.5) at Arizona CardinalsMonday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
FPI prediction: Cardinals by 4.1
The best unit in this game is the Patriots' defense, by faaaaaar. But! The worst unit in this game is the Patriots' offense. And there's an imbalance between those two things: Offense is more predictive than defense. So having had the better offense (even though a now-healthy Kyler Murray missed a couple of games) does move the needle to Arizona here. Even if you don't buy the Cardinals being 4-point favorites, I'm not sure why we shouldn't think of these teams as being even, with the Cardinals as slight favorites at home. Remember the Cardinals are coming off a bye, too.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 51.5) at Los Angeles ChargersSunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
FPI prediction: Chargers by 1.8
FPI is showing restraint on the Dolphins now after they were contained by the 49ers. I'll be honest, this one scares me because I'm a believer in Miami's offense and think we'll look at the San Francisco game as a blip -- and I think the Chargers have shown us they are mediocre long enough for us to believe it. But! The model wants what it wants. And it wants the Chargers. At least you're getting the hook.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, 36.5)Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
FPI prediction: Ravens by 2.1
In contrast to the previous pick, I love this one because I consider myself a founding member of the Tyler Huntley fan club. Huntley not only plays a similar style to Lamar Jackson, but he's also a pretty good quarterback, in my opinion! A top-32 QB, I'd say. He was excellent in college and has proved himself a capable backup in the NFL too. Clearly FPI, which is often overly skeptical of backup QBs, agrees.
Joe Fortenbaugh explains why the 49ers should cover the spread vs. the Buccaneers.
Fortenbaugh: I'd lay the -3.5 with San Francisco over Tampa Bay. I know all the talk will be around rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, but my primary focus is on Tampa Bay. Specifically, had the Saints and Rams not completely mismanaged their respective end-of-game scenarios against the Bucs, Tampa Bay would have lost eight of its past 10 games. The offensive line is in terrible shape and the Bucs have got an aggressive Niners pass rush on the other side of the country with just six days to prepare.
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