Shadow report: Tough week for Justin Jefferson and others?

29.09.2022, 15:03 espn.com

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best lineup decisions. By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week. Down below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact. To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB Cheatsheet. Note that references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjust to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks, unless otherwise indicated. Colts' Michael Pittman Jr., Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce vs. Titans' Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary and Terrance Mitchell The Titans are struggling to fill their cornerback room, and the clear evidence of that was when they signed Mitchell off the Patriots' practice squad last week and immediately inserted him as the nickel corner over Caleb Farley. Fulton and Mitchell handled perimeter duties against the Raiders, with rookie McCreary playing out wide in base and in the slot in nickel. Even with Las Vegas missing Hunter Renfrow, the results weren't great, with Mack Hollins exploding for 158 yards and one TD and Davante Adams also finding the end zone (though he was held to 36 yards on nine targets). In total, the Titans have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (second most over expected), as well as the most points to the perimeter. They've allowed the most touchdowns (six) and highest yards per target (10.4) to the position. This, after allowing the second-most fantasy points to receivers in both 2020 and 2021. Enter heavily-targeted Pittman (84% perimeter), who is an obvious upgrade this week. Pierce (96% perimeter) is a sleeper on the other side of the field, whereas Campbell (73%) has barely been targeted and shouldn't be close to lineups. Lions' Josh Reynolds, Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark vs. Seahawks' Tariq Woolen, Justin Coleman and Mike Jackson Seattle has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but that has simply been a product of having faced a league-low 44 WR targets. The Seahawks are allowing 16.2 yards per reception (highest), 9.2 yards per target (sixth highest) and the 10th-most fantasy points over expected. They've faced five fantasy-relevant wide receivers (Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Drake London), and all five have reached 11 fantasy points. Same as in past weeks, we're not worried about inexperienced Woolen and Jackson on the perimeter or Coleman (or, if he remains out, rookie Coby Bryant) in the slot. Upgrade Detroit's passing game. 49ers' Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel vs. Rams' David Long, Decobie Durant and Jalen Ramsey This one probably doesn't seem like it belongs in "upgrades," but hear me out. Samuel is likely to see some shadow treatment from Ramsey, but Ramsey's usage so far this season and in three games against San Francisco last season suggest that it won't be close to full time. Also, Samuel has annihilated the Rams in recent seasons, averaging 9.7 touches, 103.8 scrimmage yards, 1.0 TDs in the last six meetings. That includes at 10-133-2, 12-140-1 and 11-98-1 touch lines in the three 2021 showdowns. As if that's not enough, the Rams are struggling with injuries behind Ramsey (Troy Hill is on IR, and Long and Durant both missed Week 2) and are allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season (most over expected), as well as the second most to the perimeter. Aiyuk (202 yards), Jennings (two TDs) and TE George Kittle (two TDs) all had some fantasy success in the three Rams games last season, so this is looking like a good spot for the 49ers' pass game. Cowboys' Noah Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup vs. Commanders' Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St-Juste and William Jackson: Washington has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the fourth most to the perimeter. Jackson missed Week 3 because of an injury. Bills' Isaiah McKenzie vs. Ravens' Damarion Williams (Slot): Baltimore has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers and to the slot this season. Patriots' Jakobi Meyers vs. Packers' Keisean Nixon (Slot): If Meyers (64% slot) returns from injury and Jaire Alexander is out for the Packers, Meyers will be set up with a nice matchup against Nixon. Green Bay has good perimeter corners (Eric Stokes, Rasul Douglas), so DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor will be in a tougher spot. Jets' Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis vs. Steelers' Levi Wallace, Cameron Sutton and Ahkello Witherspoon: The Steelers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers, as well as the third most to the slot (Wilson has been the Jets' primary slot in recent weeks). Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase vs. Dolphins' Xavien Howard (Shadow) We have several intriguing shadow showdowns this week, but this one might be the highlight. Howard has shadowed in all three games so far, including matchups with DeVante Parker (30 of his 31 perimeter routes) in Week 1, Rashod Bateman (18-of-18) in Week 2 and Stefon Diggs (20-of-25) in Week 3. Chase has aligned out wide 77% of the time, and we should expect Howard to be on him on all of those plays. Howard held Parker in check (1-9-0 receiving line on two targets) but struggled against Bateman (4-108-1 on seven targets) and was far from spectacular against Diggs (7-74-0 on 11 targets). Miami has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers overall. Similar to the advice given on Diggs last week, this matchup is enough to perhaps downgrade Chase slightly, but he's still a must start in all formats besides, perhaps, DFS cash games. Create or join an ESPN Fantasy Basketball league for the 2022-2023 NBA season. Sign up for free! Raiders' Davante Adams vs. Broncos' Patrick Surtain II (Shadow) Denver is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (third fewest over expected), as well as the sixth fewest to the perimeter and eight fewest to the slot this season. Surtain has been a big part of the early success, having been tasked with shadowing DK Metcalf in Week 1 and Brandon Aiyuk part time in Week 3. The 2021 ninth-overall pick appears set for a season of traveling with clear No. 1 perimeter receivers, so we should expect him on Adams quite a bit this week. Adams has aligned in the slot 36% of the time, but Surtain plays only outside, so Adams will dodge his coverage in favor of K'Waun Williams about a third of the time. A downgrade is appropriate for the Las Vegas pass game, and that includes lowered expectations for Adams, who has scored in all three games this season but has also been held to a total of 44 yards on 16 targets over the past two weeks. Vikings' Justin Jefferson vs. Saints' Marshon Lattimore (Shadow) Jefferson's season is off to a bizarre start. He opened 2022 with 184 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Packers in Week 1. He then posted a 6-48-0 receiving line against Darius Slay shadow coverage in Week 2 before falling even further to a 3-14-0 receiving line in Jeff Okudah shadow coverage in Week 3. The success defenses have had shadowing Jefferson this season suggests we can expect Lattimore to travel with him in Week 4. These teams last met in Week 16 of 2020, and Lattimore shadowed Jefferson on 35 of his 41 routes, including 33 of 34 on the perimeter. Jefferson had a solid day, posting a 6-85-0 receiving line on 10 targets, though 30 yards of that came away from Lattimore's coverage. Lattimore is playing well and the Saints have been solid against receivers, so this is another tough spot for Jefferson. Daniel Dopp explains why he isn't worried about Justin Jefferson's lack of production the last couple weeks. Seahawks' DK Metcalf vs. Lions' Jeff Okudah (Shadow) Detroit's secondary has been a mainstay in the "upgrades" section of this article for quite a while, but perhaps that will flip-flop now that 2020 first-round pick Okudah seems to be emerging into a quality player. Okudah didn't shadow against the Eagles in Week 1 but played well, allowing 21 yards on six targets (29 coverage snaps) in the game. He then shadowed Terry McLaurin part time in Week 2 and allowed 30 yards on six targets (42 coverage snaps) in the game. Okudah's career highlight so far likely can be found this past week when he was tasked with shadowing Justin Jefferson. Okudah was on Minnesota's top receiver on 32 of his 41 routes, including 27 of 28 on the perimeter. Jefferson posted a 3-14-0 receiving line on six targets in the game. Okudah has obviously played well, and a full-on breakout wouldn't be a shocker from a former third-overall pick. This week, he's a good bet to shadow Metcalf the 84% of the time Seattle's top receiver is on the perimeter. Metcalf has already had his hands full in Seattle's Russell Wilson-less offense (42nd in fantasy points), so this downgrade pushes him even further down the rankings. Panthers' DJ Moore vs. Cardinals' Byron Murphy Jr. (Shadow) Murphy shadowed Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp on their perimeter routes over the past two weeks, so he's a good bet to travel with Moore the 77% of the time he's outside this week. Adams was limited to a 2-12-1 receiving line on seven targets in the Week 2 game, and Kupp was held to a 4-44-0 line on six targets this past Sunday. Arizona's plan for opposing No. 1 receivers has been successful and, especially with Moore struggling early this season, we need to downgrade him here. Arizona has struggled against other pass-catchers, however, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the perimeter, so Robbie Anderson is looking like an upgrade against Marco Wilson opposite the Moore/Mur