Fantasy Football Ultimate Draft Board

16.08.2022, 09:01 espn.com

Fantasy football drafts are all about collecting the best possible values, but we all know those special players exist whom we badly want on our squad. Whether it's the young, up-and-coming wide receiver on our favorite team, a sleeper running back no one is talking about or this year's big breakout at tight end, these players add an extra level of excitement to the roster construction process. This round-by-round analysis will give you an idea of what's going through my head on draft day, headlined by those players I have circled on my cheat sheet. For a more philosophical look at the 2022 fantasy football landscape, including strategies for drafting, trading and working waivers in all types of formats, be sure to check out the 2022 fantasy football playbook. Here it is: my personal recipe for a 2022 fantasy football championship. When I'm making my selections, I often ask myself: "Am I drafting this player at his ceiling?" If the answer is "yes," I generally aim for someone with more upside. Of course, all of the players available in the first round or so are likely at or near their ceiling, so this is an opportunity not to overthink it and simply take the best available player on the board. Round 1 - Best available RB or a big three WR This exercise is always tough for Round 1 because draft slot will determine who is available. If I'm picking first, I'm aiming for reigning top-scoring fantasy RB Jonathan Taylor (though I couldn't knock you for rolling with Christian McCaffrey). Otherwise, I'm following my board and choosing either the best available running back (ideally Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry or Najee Harris in the middle of the round) or one of the big three at wide receiver (Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase). As I wrote in the playbook last month, I think this could be a transition season at RB and thus a better year than usual to address RB in Rounds 3 through 5. That being the case, it makes it more palatable to grab a wide receiver with our first and/or second pick instead of, say, an age-27-or-older running back. Round 2 - Deebo Samuel or D'Andre Swift Ready for kickoff? Sign up now to play with friends and family. Get started >> The second round is also loaded with top-end talent, but there are certainly a few players I don't love in this range (Travis Kelce, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb) and a few I have on my radar (Samuel, Swift and perhaps Mark Andrews at the Round 2/3 turn). I don't have a good explanation for why Samuel is consistently available throughout the second round of drafts. Folks just don't seem to like him (relatively speaking), which is a mistake. During a breakout 2021, he ranked second at wide receiver in fantasy PPG when operating primarily as a pass-catcher and then fourth when asked to play the wide-back role in the second half of the season. It's unclear how he'll be used in 2022, but last season showed it doesn't really matter. Unless Trey Lance can't get the ball in his hands, Samuel is set up for another high-volume, elite fantasy season. During what was a bit of a mini-breakout last season, Swift was fifth among RBs in fantasy points while playing 72% of Detroit's snaps prior to suffering a season-derailing injury in Week 12. Swift is used very similarly to Alvin Kamara and is very much a candidate for a 200-plus-carry, 70-plus-catch campaign. He's a steal in the second round. Round 3 - Cam Akers Before I dig into Akers, I want to be clear that his availability in this range is pretty much the only reason I'm not talking about wide receivers. A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman Jr., DJ Moore and Jaylen Waddle are all on the board in this area, and I have no qualms with any of them. Especially if one or both of my first two picks were running backs, this is an area in which I'm thrilled to be addressing wideout. But again, Akers has been a favorite target of mine in the third round. Sure, his 2021 season was derailed by a torn Achilles, but he returned late last season and is averaging 19.9 carries and 2.4 targets per game in 10 outings in which he has played a substantial role. Akers might be limited a bit as a receiver, but his rushing upside is enormous in Sean McVay's offense. Although age is becoming a mild concern, I also like undervalued Leonard Fournette and James Conner here, and I'm not afraid to throw the occasional dart on a potential game-changer like Kyle Pitts. Don't be shocked if Pitts is the No. 1 tight end off the board in 2023 fantasy drafts. Round 4 - Terry McLaurin For years, I've been saying the following: "If we don't draft a wide receiver in the fourth round this year, we're doing it wrong." As noted earlier, that's not quite as applicable this season, but this is nonetheless a good area to attack the position. McLaurin has been one of the league's best wide receivers since entering the league in 2019, but underwhelming QB play has kept his touchdowns -- and, in turn, fantasy upside -- limited. With Carson Wentz now under center, McLaurin is set up for a career year. He's a strong WR2 target in the fourth round. McLaurin isn't the only good wideout available here, with Diontae Johnson, Mike Williams and Brandin Cooks making for strong targets. If not a wideout, I'll be hoping to land rookie RB Breece Hall or David Montgomery. We'll see some QBs come off the board in this range, but it's not quite the time to strike. Round 5 - J.K. Dobbins or Marquise Brown I'm generally still looking to attack wide receiver here, but like Akers earlier, Dobbins sticks out like a sore thumb. Activated from the PUP list earlier this month, Dobbins is back from last preseason's torn ACL and expected to be ready to roll in Week 1. Dobbins has super ability and led the NFL in yards per carry (6.0) and YAC (2.5) on 134 rookie-season carries. The 24-year-old won't need a substantial passing-game role to post an RB2 fantasy campaign in a Greg Roman/Lamar Jackson-led offense. If I do go wide receiver, Brown is the top target. Sure, he changed teams, but Brown is one of the league's most underrated players, having finished top 12 in target share and top five in average depth of route in each of the past two seasons. He was fantasy's No. 11 wide receiver (PPG) with Lamar Jackson last season and will now work with Kyler Murray, who was top five in completion rate and yards per attempt last season. I'm also not opposed to throwing the occasional dart at breakout candidate Gabriel Davis. Chris Godwin's recovery from a torn ACL is something we're all monitoring, and he'll be a major value in this range if he's cleared early in the season. Round 6 - Jerry Jeudy or Amon-Ra St. Brown Year 3 used to be the breakout age for wide receivers, and perhaps Jeudy is on that path after an underwhelming first two pro seasons followed by Denver's QB upgrade to Russell Wilson during the offseason. Jeudy has seen a respectable volume of targets (career 21% target share), but the team's QB woes have led to a 54% catch rate and three touchdowns on 167 targets. Both of those marks are sure to improve with Wilson in town. St. Brown was fantasy's No. 2 wide receiver during the final six games of his rookie season and is one of 14 players since 1950 with eight-plus catches in five straight games. He has more competition for targets this season, but the genie seems to be out of the bottle after the dominant finish to 2021. I also like Darnell Mooney here, making this a strong area to attack WR. OK, so the core of my team is in place. It's time to start filling gaps and adding depth. I obviously want players with upside, but I also want guys I feel comfortable placing in my Week 1 lineup. We'll save the high-risk fliers for later. Round 7 - Dalton Schultz or T.J. Hockenson I wrote about the tight end tier situation earlier this offseason and noted that the Schultz/Hockenson area of the draft is my favorite time to strike. Schultz exploded for a 78-808-8 receiving line during a breakout 2021 season and was fantasy's No. 3 tight end. He'll remain a major (if not larger) part of the pass-heavy Dallas offense with Amari Cooper gone and Michael Gallup expected to miss time. Hockenson was handling 7.1 targets per game and was a top-five fantasy TE in half of his outings (sixth best) prior to last season's thumb injury. The 25-year-old remains on the ascent in an improving offense. If not tight end, I'm interested in Miles Sanders in this range and would also think about Devin Singletary. Touchdown machine Adam Thielen is atop my list at wide receiver. Round 8 - Aaron Rodgers •Clay's Ultimate Draft Board• Mocks: 10-team PPR | 12-team non-PPR•Karabell's "Do Not Draft" list• Gallo: Best, funniest fantasy team names•Clay: 12 breakout candidates•Bowen: The 'have skills, need opportunity' team The offseason departure of Davante Adams has led to Rodgers -- the two-time reigning NFL MVP -- making for a popular 2022 bust pick, and he has, in turn, been plummeting in fantasy drafts. To some extent, it makes sense (Adams is really good), but on the other hand, Rodgers has finished top 10 in fantasy PPG in 13 of the past 14 seasons and is somehow available in the eighth round of fantasy drafts in the year 2022. On some platforms, he's being picked in the same vicinity as Trey Lance (two career starts) and Derek Carr (zero career top-10 fantasy seasons). I believe there are 12 "safe" starting QBs in fantasy this season, and Rodgers is often the last of those 12 to come off the board. I'll take that discount (double check) any time I can get it. I wanted to highlight Rodgers here, but I've selected rookie WR Drake London (more on first-round rookie WRs in a bit) in this range a ton this season and, if I'm in the WR market, I'm also looking at Kadarius Toney. If I need some RB help, Kareem Hunt (safer early-season floor) and Kenneth Walker III (higher ceiling) are on my radar. Round 9 - Dart Throw! This area of the draft includes a few intriguing breakout players (James Cook, Rhamondre St