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Most years, Football Outsiders' rankings of teams with the most talent under 25 years old are settled by the value of their young quarterbacks. But 2022 is different.
Joe Burrow just led the Bengals on an unexpected Super Bowl run in his second season. But after entering the league at 24 years old, Burrow already graduated from consideration in this exercise.
Meanwhile, the crowded 2021 quarterback draft class underwhelmed in its freshman season, and the 2022 draft saw just one quarterback taken in the first round and none in the first 19 picks. All told, the lack of standout young quarterbacks allowed a team with a veteran signal-caller to snag the No. 1 spot here.
These rankings are more than a snapshot of young talent. They consider the value and length of player contracts, and so they view less experienced players as more valuable than more experienced players with similar expected future contributions since the former probably will make more of those contributions on inexpensive rookie contracts.
As is our standard, we have created these rankings based on a combination of factors:
Number of starts made by players under 25 years old
Number of snaps played by players under 25 years old
Quality of play of players under 25 years old, age-adjusted to capture the fact that a 21-year-old player of X ability will likely improve more than a 23-year-old player of X ability and with extra consideration given to Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections
Relative importance of positions, in particular with quarterbacks being more important and running backs, off-ball linebackers and specialists being less important than other positions
Draft value added in the 2022 draft with extra emphasis placed on the premium picks in the first two rounds
Expected key starters and reserves under 25 years old for teams in 2022
Team track records of talent evaluation and development
Significant injuries or suspensions that will affect the 2022 availability of players under 25 years old
The rankings will frequently reference Football Outsiders statistics that may be unfamiliar to you. You can learn more about Football Outsiders statistics here, in the Football Outsiders glossary, or in the newly released Football Outsiders Almanac 2022.
In addition to stacking teams, we mention "blue-chip players," who are cornerstone performers from whom teams will likely derive their biggest future value.
Here are our 2022 under-25 talent rankings:
Jump to a team:ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CINCLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | INDJAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MINNE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SFSEA | TB | TEN | WSH
2021 ranking: 20 | 2020 ranking: 24
Blue-chip players: Micah Parsons, LB; Trevon Diggs, CB; CeeDee Lamb, WRNotable graduated players: Terence Steele, OT; Neville Gallimore, DT; Tony Pollard, RB; Connor Williams, G
After handing out massive extensions to veteran running back Ezekiel Elliott and quarterback Dak Prescott before the 2019 and 2021 seasons, the Cowboys were backed into a corner. They were short on cap space and couldn't afford to keep all of their offensive linemen and wide receivers, the position groups that spurred the team's pair of playoff berths to that point in Prescott's career. And worst of all, Prescott's Cowboys never made a deep playoff run, not even in the quarterback's rookie season in 2016 when the team finished second in football with a 24% DVOA. Teams in similar positions have often tried and failed to patch a leaking boat and lost a few more games each season until they accepted reality, blew up their rosters and started over. The Cowboys were on that path. But then 2021 happened.
The Cowboys have just one losing season in Prescott's tenure. They rarely pick at the top of the draft. Still, it's difficult to imagine a team having a better run of early draft success than the Cowboys did in 2020 and 2021. Lamb was the surest bet and is a feather in the cap of an approach to draft talent over team need. After near-exclusive usage in the slot as a rookie, Lamb saw 47% of his targets out wide in 2021 and still broke an absurd 22 tackles and produced 5.6 average yards after the catch. With Amari Cooper now in Cleveland, Lamb should push for the receiving yardage crown this season.
But the Cowboys owe their biggest transformation to 2020 second-rounder Diggs and 2021 first-rounder Parsons. Diggs can sometimes be burned when he tries for a big play and misreads a route and had just modest 2021 rates of 11.1 yards per target and a 51.8% coverage success rate because of it. But the tradeoff makes up for those misreads and then some.
Diggs led all defenders with 11 interceptions last season, three more than J.C. Jackson in second place. Parsons, meanwhile, looked like a generational defender in his rookie season. His 13.0 sacks and 38 hurries were sixth and 12th most among all defenders, never mind just rookies. And at just 23 years old and with four years left on his rookie contract, Parsons may have the most value over his contract of any player in football.
With that pair of breakout stars, the Cowboys jumped from 23rd in defensive DVOA in 2020 to second in 2021. And while defensive efficiency is more volatile than offensive efficiency from year to year, the Cowboys have made smart bets to fill their free agent holes with more Day 1 and 2 draft picks such as left guard Tyler Smith, pass-rusher Sam Williams and receiver Jalen Tolbert. If they continue their recent success with those selections, then the Cowboys will counterbalance their expensive veterans and keep their Super Bowl window open for the next three years or more.
2021 ranking: 3 | 2020 ranking: 23
Blue-chip players: Justin Herbert, QB; Rashawn Slater, LTNotable graduated players: Uchenna Nwosu, OLB; Jerry Tillery, DE; Nasir Adderley, S; Jalen Guyton, WR
The Chargers may not have the Cowboys' depth of young talent, but they have the best under-25 players at two of the most important positions in football.
Herbert has yet to enjoy the playoff success of his counterpart Burrow, but his production and efficiency are unimpeachable. As just a 23-year-old NFL sophomore, Herbert finished sixth with a 17.4% passing DVOA, fifth with 1,341 passing DYAR and third with a 65.6 QBR. That latter rate beat out the more heralded and more experienced young stars Patrick Mahomes (62.2) and Josh Allen (60.7) as well as Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford (63.8). It's safe to say that playoff success is imminent.
Like Herbert, Slater was not the first pick at his position in his draft class. But Slater shut down any concerns scouts had for his fit at left tackle with a 1.9% blown block rate in 2021 that was third-best among players at his position with 500 or more snaps. He and the team's 2022 first-round guard Zion Johnson should protect Herbert from the No. 1 saboteur of promising young quarterbacks, taking too many hits.
For the Chargers to catch the Cowboys, they'll need one or two of their other prospects to break out in 2022. Cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. had pedestrian rates of 7.3 yards per target and a 50% coverage success rate in his rookie season. But his position has a steep learning curve, and Samuel could make major strides in 2022. Linebacker and former first-round pick Kenneth Murray Jr. underwhelmed with a 20% broken tackle rate in his second season, but he also missed time with a left ankle injury. Perhaps better health will turn his career around.
And Football Outsiders just identified wide receiver Joshua Palmer as our favorite sleeper prospect in our Top 25 list of later-round prospects. He caught three touchdowns in the Chargers' final five games in 2021, and he has been working with the first team this offseason ahead of veteran speedster Guyton. Palmer could enjoy a dramatic uptick in his production if he routinely sees targets from Herbert this season.
2021 ranking: 11 | 2020 ranking: 14
Blue-chip players: Zach Wilson, QB; Sauce Gardner, CB; Alijah Vera-Tucker, G; Garrett Wilson, WR; Quinnen Williams, DT; Breece Hall, RBNotable graduated players: John Franklin-Myers, DT; D.J. Reed, CB; Ashtyn Davis, S
The Jets won the 2022 draft with their first- and second-round selections of cornerback Gardner, wide receiver Wilson, pass-rusher Jermaine Johnson and running back Hall. Gardner and Johnson should immediately plug the biggest holes of a unit that finished 32nd in pass defense and overall defensive DVOA last season.
Defensive tackle Williams led the team with 7.0 and 6.0 sacks the past two seasons, achievements that both made him a worthy Pro Bowl alternate and reflect poorly on the team's edge rushers. Wilson and Hall should lead a pair of playmakers at their skill positions that offer their second-year quarterback all the weapons he needs to be successful. The receiver Wilson and his teammate Elijah Moore are undersized at 192 and 178 pounds, but they run remarkably sophisticated routes for a pair of 22-year-olds.
And the running backs may be even more exciting. Hall earned the fourth-highest BackCAST projection in Football Outsiders history behind exclusively blue-chip hits in Jonathan Taylor, Ricky Williams and Saquon Barkley. And Michael Carter led backs with 150 or more touches last season with a 24% broken tackle rate on his carries and catches.
For that skill position group to hit its high ceiling, quarterback Wilson needs a dramatic improvement in Year 2. His minus-32.3% passing DVOA rate was the worst of the 34 quarterbacks that threw 200 or more passes in 2021. And it landed him in a range of rookie inefficiency where Stafford (minus-36.3% in 2009) and Allen (minus-33.2% in 2018) are the only modern examples of quarterbacks who recovered to become stars. Pass pressure could be the key. Wilson faced the third-highest pressure rate (30.5%) and produced the worst DVOA when pressured (minus-120.6%) of regular starters in 2021. But Wilson seemed also to deserve a lot of the blame for that pressure since the Jets finished middle of the pack with
