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With Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith and the rest of the 2022 class off to the NBA, it's time to shift our full attention to next year's group.
The 2023 NBA draft is 12 months away, but we've had our eyes on this group of players for quite some time, posting updates in January and May. We've watched the class' best prospects grow up in high school, AAU, USA Basketball and FIBA events, as well as other all-star settings in the past two years, and will continue that process this summer and fall.
NBA teams still have a lot to learn about this group. We're still feeling the effects of a pandemic that severely disjointed the high school careers of many of these prospects. That likely caused quite a few players to slip between the cracks and end up at lower levels than they should have. Missed evaluation opportunities have forced teams to dig even deeper into the college ranks to the mid- and low-major schools (as well as non-Division I programs, potentially), where more NBA prospects are still certain to emerge. G League Ignite and Overtime Elite are other evaluation platforms that are becoming increasingly important in the NBA scouting world, as evidenced by the fact that only one of the top five projected 2023 picks will be attending college -- something that's never occurred in the history of the NBA draft. First, let's look at the updated 2023 mock, followed by some top storylines for next year's class
The 2023 draft order is based on ESPN projections prior to draft night, and reflects the current state of picks owed and owned:
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Victor Wembanyama | ASVEL | PF/C| Age: 18.4
2. Detroit Pistons
Scoot Henderson | G League Ignite | PG | Age: 18.3
3. Orlando Magic
Nick Smith | Arkansas | PG/SG | Age: 18.1
4. Houston Rockets
Ausar Thompson | Overtime Elite | SG/SF | Age: 19.3
5. Sacramento Kings
Amen Thompson | Overtime Elite | PG/SG | Age: 19.3
6. San Antonio Spurs
Cameron Whitmore | Villanova | SF | Age: 17.9
7. Indiana Pacers
Dillon Mitchell | Texas | SF/PF | Age: 18.7
8. Portland Trail Blazers
Dereck Lively | Duke | C | Age: 18.3
9. Washington Wizards
Dariq Whitehead | Duke | SG/SF | Age: 17.8
10. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers)
Keyonte George | Baylor | SG | Age: 18.6
11. New York Knicks
Kel'el Ware | Oregon | C | Age: 18.1
12. Charlotte Hornets (to Atlanta if 17-30)
Anthony Black | Arkansas | SG | Age: 18.4
13. Atlanta Hawks
Terquavion Smith | NC State | SG | Age: 19.4
14. Orlando Magic (from Chicago)
Cason Wallace | Kentucky | PG/SG | Age: 18.6
15. Indiana Pacers (from Cleveland)
Kyle Filipowski | Duke | PF/C | Age: 18.6
16. Toronto Raptors
Jarace Walker | Houston | PF | Age: 18.8
17. Los Angeles Lakers (via Pelicans)
Julian Phillips | Tennessee | SF | Age: 18.6
18. Minnesota Timberwolves
Gradey Dick | Kansas | SG/SF | Age: 18.5
19. Utah Jazz
Leonard Miller | G League Ignite | SF/PF | Age: 18.5
20. New York Knicks (from Dallas)
James Nnaji | Barcelona | C | Age: 17.8
21. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Denver)
Jordan Walsh | Arkansas | SF/PF | Age: 18.3
22. Brooklyn Nets (from Philadelphia)
Rayan Rupert | NZ Breakers | SG/SF | Age: 18.0
23. LA Clippers
Brandon Miller | Alabama | SF | Age: 19.5
24. Brooklyn Nets
Chris Livingston | Kentucky | SF/PF | Age: 18.6
25. Houston Rockets (from Milwaukee)
Sidy Cissoko | Undecided | SG/SF | Age: 18.2
26. Boston Celtics
J.J. Starling | Notre Dame | SG | Age: 18.2
27. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Miami)
Marcus Sasser | Houston | PG/SG | Age: 21.7
28. Golden State Warriors
Ousmane Ndiaye | Undecided | PF/C | Age: 18.2
29. Memphis Grizzlies
Amari Bailey | UCLA | PG/SG | Age: 18.3
30. Phoenix Suns
Nikola Djurisic | Mega Mozzart | SG/SF | Age: 18.3
31. Oklahoma City Thunder
Arthur Kaluma | Creighton | PF | Age: 20.3
32. New York Knicks (from Detroit)
Nolan Hickman | Gonzaga | PG | Age: 19.1
33. Orlando Magic
Emoni Bates | Undecided | SG/SF | Age: 18.4
34. Boston Celtics (from Houston)
Jordan Hawkins | UConn | SG | Age: 20.1
35. Sacramento Kings
Julian Strawther | Gonzaga | SF | Age: 20.1
36. San Antonio Spurs
Jaime Jaquez Jr. | UCLA | SF | Age: 21.3
37. Sacramento Kings (via Indiana)
Andre Jackson | UConn | SG/SF | Age: 20.6
38. Boston Celtics (from Portland)
Harrison Ingram | Stanford | SF/PF | Age: 19.5
39. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Washington)
Roko Prkacin | Undecided | PF | Age: 19.5
40. Los Angeles Lakers
Adem Bona | UCLA | C | Age: 19.2
41. New York Knicks
Oscar Tshiebwe | Kentucky | C | Age: 22.5
42. Atlanta Hawks (from Charlotte)
Caleb Love | North Carolina | SG | Age: 20.7
43. Philadelphia 76ers (from Atlanta)
Daimion Collins | Kentucky | PF/C | Age: 19.6
44. Los Angeles Lakers (from Chicago)
Alex Fudge | Florida | PF | Age: 19.1
45. Milwaukee Bucks (via Cleveland)
Drew Timme | Gonzaga | PF/C | Age: 21.7
46. Toronto Raptors
Mouhamed Gueye | Washington State | C | Age: 19.6
47. New Orleans Pelicans
Kris Murray | Iowa | PF | Age: 21.8
48. Minnesota Timberwolves
Coleman Hawkins | Illinois | PF | Age: 20.5
49. New York Knicks (from Utah)
Matthew Cleveland | Florida State | SG/SF | Age: 19.7
50. New York Knicks (from Dallas)
Ryan Kalkbrenner | Creighton | C | Age: 20.4
51. Philadelphia 76ers
Matthew Murrell | Ole Miss | SG | Age: 20.5
52. LA Clippers
Colby Jones | Xavier | SG/SF | Age: 20.0
53. Brooklyn Nets
Kevin McCullar | Kansas | SF | Age: 21.2
54. Milwaukee Bucks
Jazian Gortman | Overtime Elite | PG/SG | Age: 19.1
55. Charlotte Hornets (from Boston)
Matthew Mayer | Illinois | SF/PF | Age: 22.7
56. Indiana Pacers (from Miami)
Ariel Hukporti | Melbourne | C | Age: 20.1
57. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Golden State)
Zach Edey | Purdue | C | Age: 20.1
58. Memphis Grizzlies
Trayce Jackson-Davis | Indiana | PF/C | Age: 22.3
59. Phoenix Suns
Jamarion Sharp | Western Kentucky | C | Age: 20.8
Note: The Chicago Bulls forfeited a 2023 second-round draft pick.
Victor Wembanyama is a player we've all been penciling in at No. 1 for the better part of three years, and for good reason. He stands 7-foot-3 with a 7-9 wingspan, has an exceptionally high skill level and feel for the game, and possesses defensive player of the year-type instincts as a shot-blocker.
Wembanyama could very well be on the move this offseason thanks to an opt-out clause in his contract that he's expected to execute at the conclusion of the French playoff finals. Reports in France indicate there's a level of unhappiness brewing regarding the way several minor injuries he suffered this season were diagnosed and treated, while the head coach of his current ASVEL team -- owner Tony Parker's brother, T.J. -- hasn't left a lasting impression thus far. G League Ignite and Paris Basket are said to be the main candidates for his signature. The opportunity for Wembanyama to be closer to home in Paris and still play in the competitive EuroCup league will likely be attractive. Most NBA executives feel that Wembanyama simply staying healthy for the duration of next season, while showing progress with his thin frame and ability to handle physicality, should be enough to lock down the top spot.
In regard to Wembanyama's candidacy for the top pick, it's worth keeping a close eye on how the three big men who just heard their names called atop the 2022 NBA draft -- Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero -- fare as rookies. Not every executive agrees that selecting a big man at No. 1 is an ideal use of a team's resources, in terms of the value they return in the modern game.
Should Wembanyama struggle to stay healthy, or not improve as much as hoped, there's a group of extremely talented prospects right behind him looking to show there's a conversation about why big playmakers who can be the engine of an NBA offense deserve just as much consideration atop the draft.
Thursday, July 7Rockets vs Magic, 10 p.m.Blazers vs Pistons, 12 a.m.
Friday, July 8Mavericks vs Bulls, 4 p.m.Spurs vs Cavaliers, 5 p.m.Hornets vs Pacers, 6 p.m.Nets vs Bucks, 7 p.m.Warriors vs Knicks, 8 p.m.Nuggets vs Timberwolves, 9 p.m.Suns vs Lakers, 10 p.m.
*All times Eastern
That starts with Scoot Henderson, who has Jaden Ivey-esque explosiveness changing gears in the open court, taking a piece of the paint and finishing powerfully above the rim. Henderson's court vision is more advanced than Ivey's at the same stage, but he's 2 inches shorter and his struggles as a perimeter shooter (22% from 3) are something teams will want to study closely next year. To be fair, Henderson is far from a non-shooter in terms of his mechanics and ability to throw in pullup jumpers when defenses go under ball screens (he made 43% of his off-the-dribble jumpers last season, per Synergy Sports Technology), and the fact that he hit nearly 80% of his free throws last season leaves significant room for optimism, especially considering he's still only 18.
Arkansas' Nick Smith and OTE guards Ausar and Amen Thompson are currently behind Henderson and Wembanyama in the pecking order of the 2023 draft, but have a full season to show they deserve to be in that conversation. Their tools and talent suggest they very well could be in it if they make another jump with their productivity and skill level.
One of the trends we saw throughout the 2022 NBA draft process was a distinct lack of lead guards, with only one of the top 28 picks, Jaden Ivey, likely to see the majority of his NBA minutes at the point guard spot. Even Ivey is considered by most to be more of a combo guard after being utilized heavily in an off-the-ball role in his time at Purdue.
The 2023 NBA draft isn't shaping up as a point-guard-heavy class either. While Henderson and Nick Smith project as primary ball handlers down the road, they must refine their decision-making and ability to create for others. The same can be said for the other guards in the first round who are mostly scoring-oriented, such as Baylor-bound Keyonte George, NC State sophomore Terquavion Smith, blue-collar Kentucky guard Cason Wallace, UCLA combo Amari Bailey and Houston senior bucket-getter Marcus Sasser. Gonzaga's
