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Success in fantasy baseball isn't about filling your roster with all of your favorite players. It's fun to build a team of players you love, but it won't win you your league. Success in this game is when personal preference meets opportunity. It's when your strong, informed opinion separates from that of your competition, good or bad. That's finding value.
That's not to say that we can't have favorites among players. If we didn't, how would we know when our opinion deviates from the norm? Sure, there are measures such as ADP or expert-league results or any mock drafts with which we experiment before the real deal, but you'll never truly know where those pockets of value reside until you actually sit down at your own league's draft table.
The most important task to undergo in advance of your draft is to take your own stands on players -- each and every one of them. Welcome to the space where I take my stands and share them with you: Presenting my annual "Tristan's List," 20 players that I expect to draft on a majority of my teams due to a particularly strong, positive opinion about each.
On this list, you won't find Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, Luis Robert, Rafael Devers or Lucas Giolito, despite my very much liking all five. Who doesn't? They're household names in our game, meaning none can hardly be termed a prospective "value." I mention them simply because I think the premium you'll pay for each is worth it (although Robert's is -- and should be -- more affordable in points-based scoring).
No, this list runs a bit deeper than that, ranging from the fringes of the top-50 overall in my rankings to some final-round sleepers for those of you in AL- or NL-only leagues. As always, I've attempted to balance things. The list includes 10 American League and 10 National League players, 12 hitters and eight pitchers, and at least one apiece at each of the infield positions (as well as catcher).
Let's dive in.
Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers: A big reason for his transformation as a hitter following his May 21 trade to the Brewers last season was his escaping Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field, a venue in which he openly admitted he struggled to pick up the baseball while at-bat. In his first 81 team games on the Brewers roster, Adames batted .293/.377/.542 with 17 home runs, 50 RBI and 50 runs scored (for 34/100/100 full-162 paces), and to reiterate the point about the ballparks, prior to his trade he had a massive, 98-point career home/road wOBA split (.268 at Tropicana Field, .366 everywhere else). He's more of a rotisserie-style value than one for points-based leagues because of his high strikeout rate, but he's a clear target of mine for my middle-infield spot in either.
Aaron Ashby, RP, Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers' creativity, and tendency to go six-deep in their rotation, is a big reason Ashby is a preferred late-round sleeper of mine, as he'll surely factor as either a sixth starter or bulk reliever for most, if not all, of 2022. The role uncertainly will suppress his draft price, and he does come with some control questions (note that 10.4% career minor-league walk rate), but he brings a 96-mph sinker that gives him a legitimate chance at a 60%-plus ground-ball rate, as well as a slider and a changeup that both generated more than 15% swinging-strike rates.
Matt Barnes, RP, Boston Red Sox: There isn't much in the way of "closer bargains" entering 2021, not with the league increasingly going the committee route, but Barnes is one of the few who qualifies for me. Sure, the June ban on sticky stuff had a clear, statistical effect on him, but so far this spring, he seems to have returned to what works for him -- most notably getting ahead early in counts. Barnes' skills make the best fit among Red Sox closer hopefuls, especially with Garrett Whitlock looking like a good bet for the team's rotation.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates: He might not be breaking camp with the Pirates, but the fact that they're experimenting with him in left field is a promising sign as far as his 2022 role, especially considering his defense at shortstop might be the biggest obstacle to his emerging as an everyday player. Cruz's raw power is massive, having clubbed a 408-foot homer among his nine trips to the plate last October, plus another two homers in his 15 spring plate appearances, and it's not an outrageous projection that he could lead his team in home runs if he gets the requisite at-bats. (Yes, that speaks a bit to the Pirates' lack of lineup depth.) Even though he's beginning the year in Triple-A, he's a name to tuck away as an instant pickup the moment the Pirates' shortstop (left field?) job becomes his.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Detroit Tigers: While his 2021 stat line looked ordinary, Candelario's underlying skills measured right there with what was his breakthrough 2020, signaling that he's probably more of a .290-20 than a .271-16 hitter. He's a high-floor (albeit low-ceiling) performer, but playing in Detroit in the midst of a rebuild these past few years has deflated his fantasy perception, and this year, the Tigers lineup should begin to show signs of life while he continues to occupy a three-four spot in it. Candelario's skills are rather underrated for points-based scoring, thanks to his patience and penchant for doubles.
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Tony Gonsolin, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Shoulder issues have held him back from claiming a regular role in the Dodgers rotation or from reaching the 90-inning plateau in each of the last three seasons, but despite that, he put forth an impressive 2.55 ERA and 26.0% strikeout rate in 27 games out of the rotation during that time. All indications are that Gonsolin's shoulder is much healthier this spring, and his limited workload, coupled with the Dodgers' tendency to go six-deep in the rotation while utilizing him as a swingman has served to deflate his draft price tag. He's a high-ceiling, late-round pick I'm aiming to get to round out my staff.
Trent Grisham, OF, San Diego Padres: Hamstring and foot injuries took their toll on Grisham last season and, after his return from a June IL stint, he batted only .218/.304/.371 with nine homers while succeeding on only 6-of-10 stolen base attempts in 96 games -- even dropping into a platoon role over the season's final six weeks. Before that, however, he seemed to be emerging as a rotisserie-angled superstar, having batted .271/.364/.479 with 16 home runs and 17 stolen bases over the 98 Padres games for which he was on their active roster between 2020 and the first two months of 2021. That Grisham brings quality defense to the table stabilizes his playing time, and he'll probably be needed to set the table for their lineup while Fernando Tatis Jr. heals. I'm not willing to write the youngster off after one disappointing, injury-plagued year.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, Toronto Blue Jays: His final 2021 numbers might look somewhat ordinary, but Gurriel finished the season with a flourish, having batted .289/.345/.526 with 16 home runs and 63 RBI over the Blue Jays' final 100 team games, which projects to 26-102 numbers over a full 162. He'll seek to clean up behind the team's supremely talented top four in the lineup, meaning a 100-RBI season is well within his reach, especially as he has routinely put forth underrated hard-contact metrics (see his 45.0% career Statcast rate). The Randal Grichuk trade only helps pave the way for Gurriel to play pretty regularly.
Keston Hiura, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: The best fantasy sleepers are the ones who possess at least one potentially elite skill -- in Hiura's case, his raw power -- while having made an adjustment that seeks to unlock the full capability of said skill (as he apparently has). Hiura has been tearing it up during Cactus League play thus far, with three home runs and one double in his first 18 trips to the plate, and he'll benefit from the reinstitution of the designated hitter, where he won't have to worry so much about his iffy defense. He's going in the final rounds of NL-only formats, and brings quite a lot of profit potential considering his recent play.
Tanner Houck, SP, Boston Red Sox: Let's get his obstacles out of the way first. Houck wasn't allowed to exceed 90 pitches or 5 1/3 innings by the Red Sox in any of his 13 starts for them in 2021, so while he looks likely to begin this year in their rotation, workload questions are valid. His skills, however, shouldn't be questioned, as he boosted his average fastball velocity to 94.1 mph (on average), had pro-career-bests with his 7.5% walk and 30.1% strikeout rates (counting his minor league time) and had a mere 21-point wOBA platoon split (major-leagues only) last season. Houck isn't generating much excitement in early drafts, so he's a must for me as a back-of-rotation pick, even in mixed leagues.
Danny Jansen, C, Toronto Blue Jays: I speak and write often about the lengthy learning curve young catchers experience at the big-league level, with Yadier Molina being an excellent such example, as Molina didn't have a 3.0-WAR year until his sixth (age-26) season. Jansen doesn't at all appear to be the type of prospect that Molina was, though he did have better plate discipline numbers in the minors and he has been a plus-defender at this level thus far. Jansen will turn a prime-age 27 in April, and he finished last season on a high note, batting .322/.385/.763 with six homers and 18 RBIs over his final 21 games. He's an ideal profit-potential pick as a No. 2 catcher, if you play in a league that requires one.
Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets: Lindor's first season in New York was a disappointment, but lost in the cloud that hovered above his stat line was the fact that he seemed to begin to figure things out over the final four months of the year. During that time, he batted .252/.340/.482 with 16 home runs, 52 RBI and six
