Every NBA Playoffs team, ranked by chances to win 2024 championship
The 2024 NBA Playoffs don’t exactly feel wide open. There’s a superpower hanging over both the Western Conference and the Eastern Conference as the playoffs begin, but at this point NBA fans should know anything can happen in the postseason.
Last year saw a wild run of upsets with the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Lakers reaching the conference finals out of the play-in tournament, and the No. 8 seed Miami Heat somehow running all the way to the NBA Finals. Is there another potential Cinderella lurking this year? It’s possible, but the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics have simply been a cut ahead of everyone else all season long.
As the playoffs begin, it’s a good time to take stock in the championship picture for all 16 teams in the final bracket. Here’s how we would rank the field in the 2024 NBA Playoffs by their chances of actually winning the title.
The Heat’s chances of making another wild run to the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed took a death blow when Jimmy Butler went down with a knee injury. Butler is slated to miss the entire first round. The Heat aren’t beating the Boston Celtics without him regardless of what head coach Erik Spoelstra can cook up. Miami has been middling all year, and they just don’t have enough talent to advance past this matchup.
The Magic are thrilled just to be here, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Orlando has gone from 22 wins to 34 wins to 47 wins this year over the last three seasons, an amazing accomplishment for a team coming out of a long rebuild. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have put this team ahead of schedule as big wings who can dribble, pass, and shoot. For now, Orlando still has most of its success because of its defense. Jalen Suggs is one of the truly great defensive guards in the league, while Jonathan Isaac is an incredible as a mobile big man inside. This is the first step in what should be a sustained era of success for a young Magic team.
The Cavs had such an odd season. It looked like their year was falling off the rails when Darius Garland and Evan Mobley both went down with injuries in Dec., but some somehow the team ripped off a 17-1 stretch with Donovan Mitchell surrounded by more shooting. Cleveland hasn’t looked quite as good since it got healthy. There are still difficulties with playing Jarrett Allen and Mobley together despite how good both are in a vacuum, and the same goes for Garland and Mitchell, too. Mitchell battled his own injuries down the stretch, taking some of the wind out of Cleveland’s sails. This team is just trying to win a single series this year. They should do that, but not much else.
The Pacers’ offense was one of the greatest shows in the sport this year. With Tyrese Haliburton at the controls, Indiana was breaking records for offensive pace and offensive efficiency. Then Haliburton got hurt, came back a little too early to put himself in line for a lucrative All-NBA spot, and hasn’t looked quite right yet. The Pacers offense is a little less scary without Haliburton at his top level. Still, the addition of Pascal Siakam has added more size and more force in the front court to make this team tougher defensively. Siakam, Myles Turner, and Aaron Nesmith have helped make Indiana less of a doormat on defense. If Haliburton can rediscover his top level, there’s a chance this team can pace-and-space its way into an Eastern Conference cinderella run.
The Pelicans smashed the Sacramento Kings in the play-in tournament to earn the No. 8 seed even without Zion Williamson. Williamson’s ability to make a miraculous recovery from a hamstring injury is New Orleans’ only hope for a deep playoff run, but their size and shooting could give the Oklahoma City Thunder some problems in the first round regardless. This Pelicans roster is deep as hell with a talented mix of role players. Trey Murphy III has size, shooting, and athleticism as this team’s secret weapon. Herb Jones is one of the great perimeter defenders in the league, and Jose Alvarado gets every ounce of ability out of his body. The Thunder are a very bad rebounding team, which means Jonas Valanciunas needs to go to work on the glass. Without Zion, it’s hard to think the Pelicans have a real chance, but anything is possible if they can get him on the court for his first career playoff game.
The Lakers played outstanding basketball down the stretch and seemed to finally unlock the right lineups around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. D’Angelo Russell is playing the best ball of his career as a secondary playmaker and floor spacer who has ripped threes at high volume all season. Rui Hachimura has rediscovered last year’s magic touch from three-point range, hitting 42 percent of his deep looks this year. Austin Reaves is still a microwave scorer, and Gabe Vincent is back to provide on-ball defense and floor spacing. The Lakers’ biggest problem is their first round matchup. If they were playing anyone but Denver, this team really might have a chance to go on another deep playoff run.
The Sixers finished with the No. 7 seed in the East, but they still have a case as the conference’s second most intimidating foe. That all comes down to the health of Joel Embiid, of course, who was poised to win his second straight MVP if he not for a devastating knee injury. The Sixers slipped down the standings as Embiid recovered, but they enter the playoffs undefeated since he returned from injury. Embiid is a top-3 player in the world at the peak of his powers, but he’s just never fully healthy for the playoffs and that appears to be the case once again. Philadelphia will also miss De’Anthony Melton, whose on-ball defense would have been a big help against the Knicks in the first round. If Tyrese Maxey goes nuclear, and Kelly Oubre and Tobias Harris can each win a game as a supplemental scorer, maybe the Sixers can buy enough time for Embiid to get 100 percent. It just doesn’t seem like the safest bet.
The Bucks should be much higher on this list, but something about their season has been off all year. Weird vibes are far from the Bucks’ biggest problem entering the postseason: Giannis Antetokounmpo is battling a calf injury, and he’s set to miss the start of the first round against the Indiana Pacers. Milwaukee’s hopes rest on Giannis’ ability to get back on the floor and play at his best level. If that happens, Antetokounmpo is still my pick for the second best player in the world, but reports of a 2-4 week injury unfortunately happened at the worst possible time. It’s Damian Lillard — stuck in the worst season of his career — to save this team while Giannis is out. Doc Rivers has found some answers defensively since being hired mid-season, but this team never truly found its footing. Just getting by Indiana feels like a tall task at this point.
The Suns’ all-in trade for Kevin Durant hasn’t paid off the way they wanted just yet, but you can still see a rough outline of a dominant team in fleeting moments. Devin Booker is such a well-rounded guard at this point in his career, capable of running the offense like a point guard or going on shot-making binges from all three levels. Durant has lost half of step at age-35, but he’s still a pure shooter with a super high release no one can reliably contest. Jusuf Nurkic has been a solid addition for his short-roll playmaking, and Grayson Allen has been shooting the cover off the ball all year as one of the league’s premier three-point marksmen. The wildcard is Bradley Beal, who’s inability to stay in the lineup has prevented this team from fully finding a rhythm. Phoenix doesn’t play with much force on either end, but they have real starpower and the ability to out-shoot anyone. This team is beatable, but they’re still a highly uncomfortable matchup when you need to deal with Booker and Durant.
The Clippers’ early season trade for James Harden reinvigorated the team and made this perhaps the most dangerous group of the Kawhi Leonard/Paul George era. After a disastrous start, the Clippers hit a torrid stretch where they looked like arguably the third best team in the league, but they fell back down to earth after the All-Star break. With Leonard’s strange injury situation casting a shadow over the start of the playoffs, it’s anyone’s guess to see what type of Clippers team we’ll get in the postseason. At their best, the Clippers have put together a trio of star-level shot creators who complement each other so well: Kawhi Leonard can play bully ball in the mid-range, Paul George is still a slasher who can cook off the dribble and get to the rim, and Harden combination of scoring and playmaking remains potential. That all three can get hot from three-point range off the dribble or the catch only makes them even more difficult to depend. Add in a legit 7-footer in Ivica Zubac with soft touch around the basket, and the Clippers are extremely difficult to matchup with. Of course, that’s only when they’re playing their best game. With Leonard’s injury issues and Harden’s historic playoff failings, it remains hard to trust this group.
The Timberwolves might be the biggest team in the league, and they’ve threaded the needle of building lineups that can smother the opposition with length and strength without sacrificing skill. Minnesota has had the No. 1 defense in the NBA all year, as the front office’s vision of the Rudy Gobert trade has played out for all to see in its second season. Add in a huge wing stopper in 6’10 forward Jaden McDaniels and an athletic freak like Anthony Edwards, and it’s no surprise this team gets after it defensively. The question is always the offense for the Wolves, and the burden will fall on Edwards to carry this team in the toughest situations. Edwards is the most explosive athlete in the NBA Playoffs with shot-making touch to boot. Can he make the right decisions every time down the court at only 22 years old? He’s going to have to. Karl-Anthony Towns is the wildcard here as he works his way back from injury, a super gifted offensive 7-f
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3 of May 2024
