Premier League & FA Cup predictions: Chelsea to knock out Man City at Wembley, another Arsenal win to nil at Wolves
Jones Knows takes aim at the football feast across the weekend in the Premier League and the FA Cup, sprinkling his betting insight and analysis across the card.
Luton are hanging on in there. We're on them to stay up at 3/1 from earlier this season which is now an 11/8 shot, so the bet is technically in a good spot - especially when you look at their run-in.
After this fixture, which I think they'll win at 21/10 with Sky Bet, it's Wolves (a), Everton (h), West Ham (a) and Fulham (h) on the final day. It's a kind run of fixtures that does leave a regressing and confidence-sapped Everton very vulnerable - you can get 9/2 for the Toffees to get relegated which looks a price that will shorten between now and the end of the campaign.
Issa Kabore is likely to come back into the Luton side for this clash after being ineligible for the defeat at Manchester City and he's worth backing to get fouled at least twice in the game at 5/4 with Sky Bet based on his recent fouls won data. He's won 17 fouls in his last seven starts, to an average of 2.4 per 90 minutes with his tricky style and canny ability to go down under, let's say, minimal contact, leading to referees awarding fouls in his direction.
The Premier League goal rush has made the total goal markets go a little bonkers this season with some very high goal expectancy lines for games involving two goal-heavy teams. Yet, there are also times where the overall average can affect a market too much, like this one, where under goals simply has to be the play for a game involving the two worst attacks in the Premier League.
My confidence is returning backing an under goal line after finding a couple of winners in recent weeks with Burnley vs Bournemouth and Burnley vs Brighton both copping returns at odds-against prices. Good prices are lurking. And that's the case here.
Sheffield United have averaged 0.94 goals scored per game this season - the worst in the league - while Burnley have averaged exactly one goal per this season - the joint-second worst in the league.
Stream the Premier League and more with NOW
Download the Sky Sports App
Get Sky Sports on WhatsApp
Premier League fixtures
Under 2.5 goals is priced up as the outsider of the over/under line with 6/5 with Sky Bet on offer which looks very appealing in what could descend into a proper dud of a game.
Nottingham Forest to avoid defeat vs Everton, Crystal Palace to score 2+ goals vs West Ham and Coventry to take five or more corners in 90 mins vs Man Utd
Manchester City have a vulnerable record in FA Cup semi-finals under Pep Guardiola.
This is always a fixture that causes them problems in that it falls bang in the middle of a hectic period of Champions League and Premier League matches where every game is so intense. And boy was that Real Madrid game intense on Wednesday.
City's record of winning just two of their six FA Cup semi-finals under Guardiola's watch is mediocre. Arsenal have dispatched them twice in 2017 and 2020, Liverpool managed it in 2022 and Chelsea beat them 1-0 in 2021 to end their quadruple bid.
And the victories they mustered came against Sheffield United last season when they were a Sky Bet Championship outfit and against Brighton when Chris Hughton was in charge, so not the dangerous and exciting Seagulls team of today.
Meanwhile, Chelsea are unbeaten in 12 games across all competitions in 90 minutes if you include the Carabao Cup final and have scored 26 goals in their last eight games, averaging over three goals a game. They've scored five goals against Man City already this season too, so it's not that hard to make a case for Mauricio Pochettino's team when analysing all the evidence. Chelsea at 5/2 with Sky Bet to qualify feels a little too big to ignore.
This could have been a really fiddly fixture under the lights at Molineux for Arsenal but Wolves' injury issues make this simpler than it might've been.
Matheus Cunha, Pedro Neto and Hwang Hee-Chan are all unavailable in some form again - it's a borderline irreplaceable trio meaning it's hard to see Wolves scoring against this majestic Arsenal defence.
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in their last five Premier League away games, not conceding a goal for 451 minutes. It's a defence that have been the best team defensively away from home in the Premier League this season - conceding the fewest goals (11), keeping the most clean sheets (9) and producing the lowest expected goals against (11.6).
The Gunners, since the start of last season, are working at a 56 per cent win to nil ratio away from home in the Premier League, so that looks a big runner here at 6/5 with Sky Bet.
Arsenal have won the last two at Molineux without conceding - two looks set to become three.
I've always tended to look positively about what Sean Dyche is doing at Everton under huge restraints.
The underlying metrics have been strong despite poor results, Goodison Park is a tough place to play and Dyche himself is a manager with a underrated record at this level.
But I'm losing faith - quickly.
They're in a rut and may not get out of it over the next six games. Just one win in their last 15 Premier League games and scoring just 10 goals in that period is quite frankly pathetic. It's relegation worthy results.
But one thing that has been propping them up all season has been their exemplary defending - it's why I've stuck with them in some tough times. But now, that defence that was once a rock is now a sieve. Holes are appearing.
Their expected goals against metrics in their last seven games has plummeted to 1.90 per 90 - it's fifth worst in the Premier League over that time. And they've not played anyone higher than sixth during that spell.
I've got so much more faith in Nottingham Forest's forward line with Morgan Gibbs-White likely to be head and shoulders the best attacker player on that Goodison Park pitch. They've won four of their last five expected goals battles and have scored in every one of those five matches. I think Forest will score - and that should be enough for them not to lose the game as Everton are incapable of scoring more than once in a Premier League game in their current form.
Take your pick on the pro-Forest angles that are dancing in value. Forest on the double chance at 8/11 with Sky Bet looks very tasty as does the draw no bet option at 6/4. If you fancy the away win at 5/2 then adding Gibbs-White to score or assist to the party at 5/1 looks a shrewd play.
I'm not too worried about a potential hangover from Villa's draining midweek penalty shoot-out win over Lille. The last nine Premier League teams to go to penalties in a European knockout match have remained unbeaten in their next match with seven of them winning. Villa can use that momentum to their advantage and look fair enough to me at 5/6 with Sky Bet for the home win.
The total match offside line is also worth a look with five or more priced up at 6/5 with Sky Bet - that looks a generous line. We know all about Villa's high line that has caught their opponents offside 147 times this season - that's an average of 4.5 per game. But Bournemouth do like to squeeze the game too, especially of late where they've caught the opposition offside 10 times in the last four games. I can see this game hitting that line of five or more - like it did in the reverse fixture.
Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. What a duo.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
The dynamic pair started at Anfield for the first time together since Crystal Palace's 3-2 win over Sheffield United in January and Palace looked a completely different beast, looking so much more confident in possession and creating plenty of fruitful attacking moments.
Since the start of last season, in the 28 Premier League games where Eze and Olise have both started, Palace have a win percentage of 46 per cent and average 1.4 goals per 90 minutes. Contrast that to the 42 games without at least one of them starting those numbers drop dramatically to a win percentage of 14 per cent and 0.9 goals scored per 90 minutes.
With the shrewd addition of the very exciting Adam Wharton, this Palace team - with Eze and Olise fit and firing - look capable of positing some impressive attacking returns under Oliver Glasner in their remaining fixtures and I'll be backing them when the prices are right - which they are here.
West Ham are 14 games without a clean sheet in the Premier League and their overall defensive metrics since the turn of the year are horrendous. They've conceded the third most goals of any team in those 14 games (28) and their expected goals against per 90 figure is 2.14 which is the second worst of any team for that period, behind only Luton.
Palace scoring two or more goals is odds against at 10/11 with Sky Bet, which has to be one of the best prices of the weekend.
Coventry will be hoping to channel the legacy of Keith Houchin and his diving header from the 1987 FA Cup final win over Tottenham. One of my favourite FA Cup final goals that one.
This is a fascinating semi-final as Manchester United could just be there for the taking although giant-killings are rarely seen once we get to this stage.
United's extra quality in the final third is likely to win them this game, not their style of play that continues to baffle. Are they trying to play a low block and also be a pressing team? It's weird.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
And they're going to allow Coventry to venture towards their goal at regular intervals. Like many teams against United, it will be the shots and corner count that will take a hammering rather than their goals against column.
The United corners conceded numbers remains out of control, shipping 119 in their last 12 Premier League games - again, the most of any Premier League team in that period. An average of 9.9 per game.
With the Coventry line only set at five or more corners here at 5/6 with Sky Bet, it simply must be attacked. The Sky Blues have won the second
- Last
News by day
3 of May 2024
