F1 driver market: Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez, Kimi Antonelli futures to be decided as 'silly season' approaches
Following Fernando Alonso's decision to extend his Aston Martin contract, the Formula 1 driver market is set to burst into action over the coming months.
The early February announcement of Lewis Hamilton's blockbuster 2025 switch from Mercedes to Ferrari ensured several other major moves would follow, but until last week it had been all talk and no action.
The first key domino finally fell when Aston Martin confirmed on Thursday that Alonso had signed a deal to remain with the team until the end of that 2026 season, by the end of which the Spaniard will be 45.
That ended speculation that Alonso could move to Mercedes or Red Bull, and provides further potential clues as to what those two teams are planning.
Even with Alonso's future having been sorted, over half of the current grid do not have a contract beyond the end of this season, leaving plenty to be decided.
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Carlos Sainz, on his way out of Ferrari to make room for Hamilton, has made an impressive start to the season to raise his stock. while off-track issues at Red Bull have led to uncertainty of Max Verstappen's future.
Historically, most crucial discussions for the following season's driver market have taken place over the sport's summer break in August, but 'silly season' looks set to arrive early in 2024.
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As the paddock prepares to congregate once more for this weekend's Chinese Grand Prix, with the race live on Sky Sports at 8am on Sunday, here's a look at the state of play in the driver market.
Verstappen has a contract with Red Bull until 2028 but his future has been questioned following off-track turbulence at Red Bull.
After the conclusion of an investigation into team principal Christian Horner, which resulted in allegations of inappropriate behaviour made against him by a female colleague being dismissed, a political row appeared to break out at Red Bull.
Amid speculation that Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko, another key figure at the top of the team, could be on the verge of leaving, Verstappen warned at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in March that he could follow if the Austrian exited.
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While the tensions at Red Bull, which also saw Verstappen's father Jos make highly critical statements against Horner, appear to have calmed since Jeddah, the previously unthinkable situation of Verstappen giving up a car that looks set to lead him to a fourth successive drivers' title has become a potential reality.
If Verstappen were to leave Red Bull, the most obvious landing spot would appear to be Mercedes, with team boss Toto Wolff making no secret of his desire to sign the Dutchman.
"Lately, Toto has been really nice, saying a lot of nice things about me," Verstappen noted in Japan after Wolff had described him as "spectacular".
The problem for Mercedes is that they are showing no signs of being able to compete with Red Bull under the current F1 design regulations, which run until the end of the 2025 season, and their form won't be filling anyone with confidence for their prospects in 2026 when radical rule changes will be implemented.
So for now, it seems unlikely Verstappen will be going anywhere else soon, but that doesn't mean there won't be a 2025 opening at Red Bull.
On the other side of the garage, Sergio Perez is in the final year of his contract, but is so far "doing what he needs to do" according to Horner, to keep his place alongside Verstappen, with three second places from the first four races of the season.
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However, Perez started 2023 very strongly before his performances dropped off to the point that his future with Red Bull appeared untenable, so the team's hierarchy will surely want to see more consistency from the Mexican before offering an extension.
Also factored into any decision on Perez will be who is available to replace him...
Even before Alonso extended his Aston Martin deal, there was a growing feeling that F1's other Spaniard had emerged as the most attractive option for teams with 2025 seats to fill.
Sainz was the only non-Red Bull driver to win a race last season, and became the only one to do so this year when he led team-mate Charles Leclerc in a Ferrari one-two in Australia, just two weeks on from undergoing an appendectomy that ruled him out of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
With three podiums from the the three races he has featured in, Sainz has delivered the perfect response to being deemed to surplus to requirements by Ferrari, and left the likes of Horner and Wolff with little option but to take notice.
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A return to the Red Bull family, where Sainz began his F1 career with Toro Rosso alongside Verstappen in 2015, initially seemed unlikely, but Horner said in Australia that "based on a performance like that you couldn't rule any possibility out."
Wolff similarly admitted in Australia that Sainz was among drivers to have "arguments in favour of them", while there has been speculation that the timing of Alonso's decision to extend with Aston Martin could have been influenced by the team's growing interest in Sainz.
While Red Bull and Mercedes remain only potential options for Sainz, there has long been speculation that he is Audi's first choice for when the German manufacturer takes over the Sauber team in 2026.
Reports claim that Audi would like to have Sainz in place for 2025, but that would almost certainly result in the 29-year-old taking a major step backwards in terms of competitiveness, which conflicts with his stated desire to remain in a "winning" car.
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"I have no clue where I will be next year. It's true we're talking to many teams," Sainz told Sky Sports F1 after his third place in Japan.
"I just need to keep focused on what I'm doing, prove to myself and everyone that when I'm given a fast car, I maximise what I'm given and I deliver."
If he can maintain his current level of performance, it appears the rest of the drivers might be waiting for Sainz to decide where he wants to drive before the other seats are left to be filled.
The early-season narrative had been that Mercedes had a choice to make between the experience of Alonso or youth of highly rated Italian Kimi Antonelli.
Speaking in Japan before news of Alonso's extension had emerged, Wolff admitted that the fact Mercedes are in "a rebuild phase" would impact his decision.
"It could mean putting a young driver in there and giving him an opportunity with less pressure than fighting for victories immediately," he said. "Or putting a more experienced driver in the car that can help us dig ourselves out of the current performance picture."
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Ultimately Mercedes' dismal start to the season appeared to weaken Wolff's hand, with Alonso saying in Japan that the Silver Arrows being behind his Aston Martin on track meant a move didn't "feel that attractive".
Given the fact Wolff is one of the most well-connected individuals in the paddock, there is every chance that by the time he made the above comments in Japan, he would have known of Alonso's decision to remain with Aston Martin.
That could mean the "experienced driver" he was referring to was Sainz. While that can be debated, there is no doubt the "young driver" option is Mercedes junior driver Antonelli.
The 17-year-old will have his first F1 test on Tuesday in a 2021 Mercedes W12 and is schedule to drive the team's 2022 car later in the season.
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Antonelli began his maiden Formula 2 season with huge expectations, but failed to score a podium or make a major impression during the opening thee rounds.
Some might have expected more, but a driver's performance in F2 isn't always a reliable indicator of how they would cope with F1 cars, while Antonelli still has plenty of time to make his mark on the series.
Whatever happens in F2, Mercedes appear convinced of the karting phenomenon's talent and having missed out to Red Bull on a teenage Verstappen, are wary of letting another gem slip away.
Another team generating plenty of driver-market attention are Red Bull's junior squad RB. The battle between Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda was meant to give the duo a chance to prove which should be considered a candidate to potentially replace Perez in 2025.
Tsunoda has certainly done his chances no harm with successive point-scoring efforts, but Ricciardo is, metaphorically, looking in his rear mirrors rather than ahead at Perez.
Red Bull have been ruthless to their drivers across both teams over the last 15 years, most recently getting rid of Nyck de Vries just 10 races into last season, which cleared the path for Ricciardo's comeback.
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Having impressed when Ricciardo missed five races with a broken hand last year, New Zealander Liam Lawson is a looming presence and will undoubtedly be on standby should the team's patience run out.
While Tsunoda is driving impressively, his presence at the team has been tied to engine supplier Honda, who will switch to supplying Aston Martin from 2026.
It is perhaps for this reason that the Red Bull hierarchy have remained lukewarm at the prospect of promoting the 23-year-old, who Honda would surely love to take with them to Aston Martin.
Discussing his links to Red Bull and Honda in an interview with Sky Sports F1 ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix, Tsunoda said: "Without those two manufactures I wouldn't be here. I love Red Bull, I'm very proud and happy to be in the Red Bull family.
"And Honda, I have been with them since I was 17 years old. So it's more up to them. I just have
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