U.S. aid can thwart russians' plans to advance in Donetsk Region – ISW
This follows from a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Military analysts note that the russians have concentrated a division-sized force on the Berdychi-Novokalynovo line northwest of Avdiyivka, consisting mainly of four brigades of the Central Military District of the Armed Forces of the russian federation.
Analysts suggest that these forces pursue three complementary tasks:
It is noted that all these plans are aimed at supporting the russian goal at the operational level, which is to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk Region by reaching the city of Pokrovsk.
The ISW report indicated that russian offensive operations in these three areas north and northwest of Avdiyivka resulted in the creation of three small salients along the front line about seven kilometers long. However, each of these three salients is currently too narrow to serve as full-fledged starting points for further ground offensive operations that would allow a wide encirclement of the territory west of Avdiyivka.
"The force composition, density, and general battlefield geometry of this area suggest that Russian forces currently hope to combine the pushes from all three salients to create a wider breach along the Berdychi-Novokalynove line," the report said.
At the same time, ISW notes, russian troops do not have enough time to prepare for a wider breakthrough since the arsenal of the Armed Forces will soon be replenished with military aid from European countries and the United States if the Senate passes a bill on additional appropriations.
Analysts recalled that EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell said on April 22 that the first deliveries of artillery ammunition at the initiative of the Czech Republic will arrive in Ukraine by the end of May - beginning of June.
"The ability to match the ratio of artillery fire to the aggressor's forces on the battlefield will be crucial to the ability of the Defense Forces to deprive russian troops of the initiative and slow down the pace of their advance on the Avdiyivka Axis," the report says.
At the same time, it is noted that russian troops are also intensifying the pace of advancement at the tactical level in other areas of the theater of operations, namely on the Lyman Axis and to the west and southwest of Donetsk, with the aim of securing the occupied territories as soon as possible.
According to ISW analysts, the russian military command is aware that after the arrival of Western aid, the "window" of offensive opportunities will close and is trying to consolidate offensive successes before the Armed Forces receive military aid from partners.
In view of the development of events, the Institute for the Study of War predicts that in the coming weeks, russian troops will continue to win tactical victories along the Berdychi-Novokalinove line and other areas of the theater of operations while waiting for the arrival of Western aid.
"The currently closing window of low Ukrainian resources will likely inhibit Russian forces from being able to translate tactical advances into operationally significant gains for the most part, though some are possible; and Ukraine's receipt of Western aid will likely position Ukrainian forces to receive the upcoming offensives for which Russian forces are preparing," says the ISW report.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, on Saturday, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a draft law on allocating aid to Ukraine. 311 members of the lower house of the U.S. Congress voted in favor of the project, and 112 spoke against it.
The Senate will vote on the draft law on aid to Ukraine approved by the House of Representatives on Tuesday, April 23.
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4 of May 2024
